• Thoroughbred Analytics

    • Latest From Our Blog

    The Handicapping Experiment Continues

    Last week I decided to eliminate most of the Thoroughbred Analytics proprietary metrics and focus solely on Speed and Lengths Gained. The experiment showed mixed results, but upon further analysis gave me reason to believe that I’m on to something.

    I was under the belief that if the pace scenario seemed like it was going to be fast weigh the lengths gained metric more, if the pace scenario seemed like it was going to be slow weigh the speed metric more-this was absolutely wrong, but speed and lengths gained are crucial.

    I handicapped 4 races at Hollywood Park’s all-weather track, 4 races at Aqueduct (3 turf, 1 dirt) and then on my own time 4 races at Gulfstream (2 turf, 2 dirt) The speed and lengths gained metric when combined offered me absolutely no help on the dirt- I failed miserably in all three races, it was embarrassing. Of course, just like how science stumbled upon penicillin and Viagra, I stumbled upon a new handicapping technique.

    I bombed on all three dirt races and had mixed results on the all weather surface, but then there was turf. In 5 turf races the winner was accurately predicted 4 out of five times when weighing speed, post-position and lengths gained while weighing lengths gained the most. In four of the five races, the winner scored the highest or second highest in lengths gained!

    What makes this all the more interesting is that the races that were studied all unfolded very differently with very different pace scenarios, but 4 out of five times the winner of the lengths gained metric was there at the end. It was also interesting to note that neither speed nor lengths gained seemed to predict dirt races very well, I found that traditional handicapping would’ve served me better.

    So, what does this all mean?

    It seems like my speed/lengths gained theory isn’t working well on dirt so there is no reason to pursue it further, but I want to see if the success I had on turf was a fluke or not. The problem is all the turf races were at a mile and a sixteenth, so it may be the turf or it may be the distance, who knows?

    This weekend I am going to handicap only turf races at two different tracks at two different at a multitude of distances. If I am on to something, and that’s a big if, then this may be the biggest handicapping discovery of the decade. So, here’s the gameplan: I am going to use speed, and lengths gained while incorporating post positions as well. I’ll weigh lengths gained slightly more than speed regardless of the pace scenario. I would also like to incorporate horses passed as this may help as well. It seems that all of these turf races can be boiled down to a sprint from the three-eighths pole to the wire in spite of the preconceived notions of dirt handicapping more simplistic than turf handicapping.

    I am going to recap each race on the blog next week. I’ll reveal the picks beforehand just so everyone knows that they are legit. I’ll reveal the formula I used to come up with them in detail in next weeks blog. Wish me luck!

    Picks for Churchill Downs on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2013

    Race 3

    1. Win: Laser Cat
    2. Place: Kicker
    3. Show: Lemon Hero

    Race 7

    1. Win:Golden Sabre
    2. Place: Dorsett
    3. Show: Layton Register

    Race 8

    1. Win: H Town Brown
    2. Place: Gambler’s Ghost
    3. Show: Hat of Jacks

    Race 9

    1. Win: I’m Already Sexy
    2. Place: Emotional Kitten
    3. Show: Zero Game
    The Handicapping Experiment

    A lot of times statistical data just confirms hunches that you already had. Well one hunch I have is that a horse race comes down to basically two metrics: speed and lengths gained; but which one is more important than the other depends on how the race unfolds. There are many ways to categorize a race, but in the interest of time and my own sanity I’ll break it down like this: races built for speed-horses, races for stalkers, races for deep stalkers and races for closers. All four of these races come down to speed and lengths gained, but the importance of these two metrics in relation to one another is what differs from race to race.

    Speed: A race that caters to speed-horses could be one where the lone speed will dictate the race, or it could be one where the speed-bias on the track is so unbelievably bad that no matter how fast they go early on in the race, the speed will carry. The scenario under which the speed-horse dominates doesn’t matter, all that matters is if you think this race will play kindly to speed, you should factor each horse’s speed rating more than their lengths gained rating. I’m currently using a 70:30 ratio of speed to lengths gained. I will tell you how well it works next week in part two of this blog.

    Stalker: Races that play well to stalkers are races where the speed is getting pushed just enough to the point where he’s getting tired but a speed-duel hasn’t developed. Usually if I see three horses that want but don’t need the lead, I think to myself this is a stalkers race. Of course, the fractional times are irrelevant because what is fast for one group of horses will be slow for another group. I’m currently using a 60:40 ratio for this type of race.

    The next two styles are self-explanatory at this point so I’ll just say that the deep stalker ratio is 50:50 speed to lengths gained and the deep closer is 40:60 speed to lengths gained.

    Of course, there are pitfalls to all of this. The biggest one is that I am not including jockeys and trainers. The reason for this is the Breeder’s Cup. Jockeys run hot and cold and there is no metric that can account for this. Mike was worth a 160 on both days of the Breeder’s Cup, but who could’ve predicted he was capable of that? It’s more or less the same with trainers, Baffert is a future hall of famer but there is something with him and the BC Classic that defies logic therefore cannot be accounted for. As always, use your discretion when it comes to jockeys and trainers. If it seems like a jockey is on a hot streak, take that into consideration.

    As most people on the backstretch will tell you, a horses workout time is less relevant compared to how they did the workout. Also, as the speed of the track changes from day to day the results are distorted even more. For example, Paynter took to the track and turned in 5 furlongs in 1:00 and three, then two days later Declaration of War turns in 5 furlongs in 1:01. So, who had the better workout? The answer is whoever got more out of it, which is not always easy to discern from just going by the times.

    Why I’m excited to test this out:

    At risk of sounding biased, the speed rating and lengths gained rating are the two most accurate measures of a horse’s performance I have ever seen. Do I think that there will ever be a day when you can just turn off your brain, look at raw numbers and correctly predict a horse race? Absolutely not, however these two numbers are as close as one will ever get because they are accurate measurements of the two factors that make a horse successful. Just like how a boxing match is composed of a million different factors but is mainly hitting and blocking, a horse race is composed of a million different factors but is mainly speed and gaining lengths on your opponents. The horse that can do these two things successfully is the winner.

    So, here’s what I am going to do.

    I’m going to handicap two cards at two different tracks using this system. I have decided to pick two tracks on opposite ends of the country so as to not be regionally biased. I will handicap Hollywood Park on Saturday and Aqueduct on Sunday. In the interest of transparency, I will post my selections by Saturday morning. I will not handicap every single race simply because that is not my handicapping style. I will handicap four races from each track and you can follow along with my picks from home if you like.

    If you’re up for some friendly trash talk you can find me on Twitter @TAnalytic

    Breeders’ Cup Top 10 Long Shots

    Here is a recap of Thoroughbred Analytics’ top ten live longshots for the 2013 Breeder’s Cup

    1. Last Gunfighter: If he runs back to his form in the Pimlico Special; which we think he will, then he has as good a chance as anybody at taking the Classic.He gave Ain’t too fast to catch the race and then snatched it back. He has tactical speed which always helps. This horse should be getting more attention than he has been.

    2. We Miss Artie: Won the Dixiana Futurity and did it the right way. His breeding seems to suggest he’ll love grass but he tolerated dirt well enough to make himself dangerous here.

    3. Za Approval: Wise Dan ran the Woodbine Mile in 1:31 and three. Za Approval ran it in 1:32 flat don’t you think that’s good enough to beat just about every horse in this field? We sure do

    4. Paynter: He needs a much better trip than he received in the Awesome Again, but if he gets that perfect trip we think he has what it takes to pick up the pieces. The distance is no problem for this horse.

    5. Granny’s MC Kitten: Should be forwardly placed and able to strike when the time is right. Javier Castellano the Ramsey’s and Chad Brown are a great combo

    6. Commander: I’m not convinced that he is a better horse than Ever Rider, but if Aaron can get him on the lead or in second in the early going, Commander becomes a very dangerous horse and could take down Ever Rider.

    7. Mexicoma: His runaway victory tells so much. He showed that he has the talent and that this distance is a piece of cake for him. Play the horse you know will get the distance.

    8. Easter Gift: If you draw a line through his most recent race, what you have is a horse who gave Vitoria Olimpica all he could handle and excels at a mile. I also like the fact that he can be a deep closer or sit two off the pace.

    9. Dance Card: If she matures enough to run in a straight line and not people watch she has a shot at hitting the board or possibly winning

    10. Big Blue Kitten: With all the speed in this race they are probably going to run three quarters in 1:13 flat and if they do that, Big Blue Kitten will gobble up the field like he did in the Sword Dancer. This race seems to be primed for closers and Big Blue Kitten seems to have the best closing kick of them all.

    Breeder’s Cup Sires

    Breeder’s Cup.

    With all of the hype and hoopla surrounding the Breeder’s Cup it’s easy to forget that it all began with a simple but passionate man named John Gaines. Gaines was unique in that he sold almost all of what he bred, in other words he was the epitome of a breeder. In celebration of the Breeder’s Cup and Mr. Gaines I am going to analyze the most influential sirelines of the past seven Breeder’s Cups and see which horses may be destined for greatness based on bloodlines alone.

    After reviewing the top three finishers of every single race and assigning 2 points for siring a winner and one point for siring a horse who placed, and only keeping the best result, I noticed nine sires whose names came up over and over again. Unbridled’s Song, Tapit, Smart Strike, Pulpit, More than Ready, Mineshaft, Distorted Humor, Awesome Again and A.P. Indy.

    A.P. Indy is a kingmaker

    I knew that A.P. Indy is the greatest sire of the modern era, but even I was shocked by where the data took me. Keep in mind that this data represents the last seven years of the Breeder’s Cup, so while the sample size is small it also gives great insight into which sires are relevant right now. We all know that 25% of his runners have been stakes winners, but I still found it tough to believe that he is also one of the most successful sires in the Breeder’s Cup. The cup is a great sample because the races are all so different. The one thing that they all have in common is that you need class in order to do well. So, not only did the courageous stallion make it, but so did two of his sons and his grandson- the “it” stallion Tapit. I say this all to put perspective to the enormous stallion fees this line carries- the A.P. Indy sireline is worth every penny. It should also be noted that the big four (A.P. Indy, Pulpit, Mineshaft and Tapit) racked up most of their points in the types of races that America is trying to get better at winning like the Classic and the Marathon. Like I said before, I go where the data takes me, but I’m glad that it confirmed my belief that the next American superstar is most likely going to come from the A.P. Indy sireline.

    The dosage index matters (sort of)

    This one has to be taken with a grain of salt because of the how closely related these horses are. What I’m trying to say is that the low dosage of all these horses may just be a result of the fact that they all have some form of A.P. Indy or Mr. Prospector or in the case of Pulpit and Mineshaft, both. So, it really may just be a coincidence that these bloodlines have a low dosage.

    Inbreeding-Bad for humans good for horses

    There has been a big push against inbreeding within the first five generations, but we may have to rethink that. Horses that were inbred within the first five generations seemed to be overrepresented, while complete outcrosses tended to be underrepresented. The inbreeding pattern that seems to be most overrepresented is 5×5. Inbreeding in the fifth generation seems to work well when trying to produce a classic horse. Of course, it also must be said that certain families of racehorses just tend to compete well in the Breeder’s Cup, so breeding from these families is better than avoiding them if you want to produce a classic horse.

    American Sires are Versatile

    If you pay attention to nothing else, pay attention to this- American horses are underbet in both the Breeder’s Cup Mile, Juvenile Fillies Turf and Turf Sprint. I will give specific recommendations on how to play the cup next week, so lease make sure to be on the lookout, but the general rule of thumb is play American sires in every type of race except turf routes. They are being played in turf sprints, but not as often as they should, they are still being underbet; though it is less and less each year.

    Some sires to look out for are Tapit, Unbridled’s Song and More than Ready. They are all associated with dirt but this is solely perception- they can sire turf horses as long as it isn’t a turf route so play them!

    Let’s take a look at top three finishers by these sires and the odds shall we?

    Noble Tune (3.9)
    Unbridled’s Note (4.7)
    Tapitsfly (2.6)
    Laragh (9.8)
    Pluck (6.4)
    Stopshoppingmaria (8.8)
    More than Real (13.6)
    Regally Ready (2.3)

    Remember, next week I will tweet the five best longshots on the entire card so please follow me on twitter @taanalytic.

    Foreign Horses Contenders for the Breeder’s Cup?

    From Bayakoa to Barathea, foreign horses have provided stiff competition to American horses. These mystery horses have come out of nowhere to claim the top prize in the Classic with the French invader Arcangues in 1993 and British sensation Raven’s Pass in 2008. Make no mistake, foreign horses will do well at the Breeder’s Cup this year, so the key for handicappers is knowing which ones will make a mark and which ones will be busts.

    The contenders that I am about to highlight are not a definitive list by any means, rather they are horses that you as a handicapper should get to know a little bit better. It also needs to be said that I am not picking each horse to win, I will be highlighting my picks to win in an upcoming post. These are horses that I think warrant a closer look. These are the foreign horses that you should spend your time researching. I will not make a final assessment on these horses till each one’s TA Indicator has been calculated.

    Flintshire: Andre Farber is like a European Todd Pletcher. He brings over the best horses and they sometimes run their B race and sometimes run their A race, but they always have to be respected. This horse lives for a firm turf course so the Santa Anita “putting green” will definitely be to his liking provided that it doesn’t rain-which it shouldn’t. His pure closing style will also set him up well as the pace is likely to be pretty honest. He seems to be the one to catch in the B.C. Turf.

    Planteur: What if I told you that there was a horse who finished third in the world’s most prestigious race back to back. There is such a horse and his name is Planteur. The son of Danehill dancer has taken on some of the best horses in the world on synthetic and turf and ran pretty well. Of course, he has yet to run on dirt, but you should still take him seriously because he reminds me a lot of his broodmare sire Giant’s Causway, who was able to transfer most of his turf form to the dirt. I still think that Game on Dude has very little to worry about, but I would be shocked if Planteur didn’t run well and hit the board.

    Magician: I’m not completely sure if Aidan O’Brien is going to send out his star miler, but I must say that this horse has moves! The way he accelerated to a commanding victory in the Irish 2000 Guineas was breathtaking. Now, I’m not too sure how good the European milers are this year, but this is definitely a horse to watch. The fact that he seems to be a nine furlong horse also helps as it’s easier to cut back than go up in distance. He also seems to be well rested, so he is probably going to give Wise Dan his best shot. Don’t say that I didn’t warn you.

    Ever Rider: It isn’t all about the Europeans. Ever Rider from Argentina stunned the South American racing scene with his gate to wire victory in the Clasico Belgrano. The word out on Ever Rider is that he is a pure frontrunner-so he’s going to the lead which may worry some but not me. Have you ever noticed how passively American jockeys ride Marathon races? My guess is that they’ll let him get three quarters of a mile in 1:22 and 3 then realize that they just brought a bunch of knives to a gunfight. If this horse is anywhere near 8-1 I’m probably going to put some money on him. Speed kills even in the B.C. Marathon.

    Recent Blog Posts
    Links