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The eyes of the horse racing world will be focused on Belmont Park on Saturday as American Pharoah attempts to become the twelfth horse to win racing’s Triple Crown. The paid attendance on track will be capped at 90,000, and there will be millions of racing fans all over the world watching to see if the son of Pioneer of the Nile reaches immortality with a victory in the race. The buzz over American Pharoah’s attempt to enter racing’s most exclusive club has reached new levels, garnering plenty of publicity in the mainstream media, which we hope will attract people to not only watch the race but to enjoy horse racing in the future.
As one would expect, everyone has an opinion on the race. In order to formulate the best opinion for the race, you need quality information. Here at thoroughbredanalytics.com, the racing fan will have access to plenty of information that will give them the opportunity to make the best selection possible for the race.
When it comes to handicapping, rarely will two people agree 100% on the handicapping methods they used to come up with their opinion on a race. While many have strict methods of handicapping they use, there are others who are very flexible and will use many pieces of information to come up with the selections. Thoroughbredanalytics.com provides the racing fans with plenty of information that they can use, from jockey and trainer stats, to past performances, to track modeling, and post position analysis. We are going to look at some of this information for the Belmont Stakes and hope it will be very helpful for you to formulate a solid opinion for the race.
This is the fourth attempt for trainer Bob Baffert to win the Triple Crown. He began his career training quarter horses and soon graduated to thoroughbreds. One would think with this quarter horse experience that Baffert is a speed trainer that can’t get horses to win in a route. This is so far from the truth. It takes talent to put yourself in position to win the Triple Crown, and for this being Baffert’s fourth attempt at it, this is truly a remarkable achievement. We ran a Trainer distance/surface analysis report for Baffert for the last three years. The one number that sticks out is Baffert’s record the last three years with horses going twelve furlongs on dirt. Baffert has started seven horses at that distance and he has a record of 3-3-1. That’s 100% in the money with 43% winners. Even though this is a small sample, one needs talent and the horsemanship just to get to levels like that. Another example of how good a trainer Baffert is going a route, is one for one at eleven furlongs and he is seven for twenty-three at ten furlongs and has been in the money twelve of twenty-three starts.
Using the trainer class analysis report, we see that Baffert’s record for winning stakes at Belmont Park on dirt is five for seventeen and he is eight for seventeen in the money. With each of those categories Baffert does show a profit with his win bets.
You can also run the report where you compare two trainers against each other. We compared Bob Baffert versus Todd Pletcher with their North American stats in the last three years. As of Wednesday, Baffert has a record in stakes of 114 for 504 (22.62%) and 263 for 504 in the money (52.18%). Pletcher has a record in stakes of 214 for 1008 (21.23%) and 508 for 1008 (50.18%) in the money.
For jockey Victor Espinoza, the numbers obviously are not as good. In the last three years, Espinoza is two for 16 in twelve furlong races, but he is zero for six on dirt at the distance. In ten furlong races, overall Espinoza is 10 for 41. His dirt record at that distance is two for nine, with those two victories coming in the Kentucky Derby with California Chrome and American Pharoah. At Belmont Park in the last three years, Espinoza has an overall record of two for eleven. On dirt he is one for seven with that victory coming in an allowance race. He is zero for four in stakes races and he finished off the board in all those races as well. Espinoza is named to ride in six races at Belmont in the two days prior to the Belmont Stakes, with four of the six being on dirt, including Sky Kingdom for Bob Baffert in the Grade 1 Brooklyn.
There are plenty of reports and custom reports on the site a handicapper can use to help formulate their opinion for the race. We will go over these options and reports in the upcoming weeks and will answer any questions you may have. My opinion about the Belmont Stakes. One has to respect what American Pharoah has done, and he will be tough to beat. Baffert will have him ready to roll, and I expect him to continue Baffert’s perfect record of in the money finishes at the distance. I see him having the lead turning for home but I expect him to get caught in deep stretch. The horse that catches him and denies his chance for legendary status, Frosted.
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