Upset! This is probably the most misused term in Thoroughbred racing. If the majority of the betting public did not wager on a particular horse then the prevailing wisdom says that he must be inferior, and if he wins it is deemed an upset.

Well, I thought that it would be interesting if we looked at three of the biggest upsets of the modern era and determined how the upset came to be and whether or not a betting public using quality handicapping tools such as the TA indicator or other handicapping reports would have picked the upset winner.

Race: 2008 Kentucky Derby
Winner: Mine that Bird
Odds: 51/1
Should have Been: 25/1

Everyone remembers Mine that Bird’s rail skimming trip in the Kentucky Derby. I believe that having Borel as a jockey gives a horse a three length advantage over horses with great jockeys such as Smith and Gomez. It also has to be said that Mine that Bird is a dead closer which fits Borel’s riding style perfectly. As we all know, Churchill Downs is Borel’s home track and so he knows all the “dead spots” on the track and how to avoid them; but this doesn’t mean that Mine that Bird doesn’t deserve any credit. In fact, the betting public didn’t realize just exactly who this little horse truly was.

Mine that Bird started his career off in Canada and was so impressive that he captured the Grey stakes and was named champion Canadian juvenile in the process. He was quickly purchased and brought to America to run in the Breeder’s Cup juvenile where he finished last.

Just as people can be weather snobs so can horses, and Mine that Bird is a classic weather snob. His winter coat had grown thick and the 75 degree winter temperature of California did not suit him at all. He also tends to run in drizzling rain and did not get this either. In other words, he is very Canadian.

Lucky for Mine that Bird, Louisville felt a lot like Canada that day and the Bird was able to run to his full potential. This was a slightly tough race for handicappers to pick because most handicappers are used to drawing a line through the races a horse runs on rainy days over a sloppy track, but with Mine that Bird you had to have drawn a line through the races he ran on sunny days as he hates a good track. It also needs to be noted that the horse was trained at high elevations so he is used to less oxygen than most horses.

Now the final piece of the puzzle is his breeding. He is by Birdstone out of a Smart Strike mare. So, the horse that produced his dam is the same horse who produced the rock-solid Curlin and the horse he was sired by is a Belmont Champion – in other words the horse had incredible breeding.

Race: 1971 Kentucky Derby
Horse: Canonero II
Odds: (Innaccurate due to field concept)
Should have been: 60-1

During the seventies when Canonero II raced, the parimutual system could only process 12 betting options, and as a result Canoneroo II was grouped with 6 other horses which drove his odds down, but if he was a betting interest by himself he would have gone off at 100-1. In fact, he was such a long shot that several famous trainers laughed at Juan Arias and told him that both he and Canonero II were a joke, luckily Mr. Arias did not speak English so he could not understand what they were saying. As we all know, the joke was actually on the other trainers, because Canonero II shocked the field, winning by three and a half lengths, but how did it happen?

The key to this mystery lies mainly with Juan Arias. Mr. Arias was a big believer in horses learning by doing. So, he raced Canonero II in high altitudes at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter, a great simulation of the Kentucky Derby. As we all know, Arias was also laughed at for not training Canonero II with “bullet” workouts, instead opting for long and slow gallops. Once again, the racing public assumed that Arias was doing this out of ignorance, but Arias was an astute horseman who knew that the only way to get an anxious horse to relax was through long gallops. He trained the horse to get the distance rather than just have speed. Arias wasn’t sure if the horse had enough talent, but he made sure the horse had enough endurance to get the mile and a quarter.

Arias is also famous for only training Canonero II when the horse felt like training. Once again, the mild-mannered Venezuelan trainer was berated by the racing establishment, but now studies have shown that a flexible training regimen is actually more conducive to the development of a horse than an inflexible one.

Juan Arias couldn’t afford half of the things that celebrity trainers get for their horses, but he gave Cannenero II the greatest gift of all. He trained the horse at La Rinconada Racecource in Caracas. The high elevation and deep sandy track made the horse tough. Having a trainer who knew when to push his horse and when not to caused the horse to peak at just the right time. In other words, Arias understood the difference between training for any old horse race and training for the Derby. Eventhough he didn’t look the part, Arias was a true horseman. He gave his little horse all the advantages that money couldn’t buy, and all of those advantages added up to one huge upset victory.

Race: 1993 Kentucky Derby
Horse: Arcangues
Odds: 133/1
Should have been: 40/1

The theme so far has been horses with more talent than meets the eye and a trainer with genius to match and this story is no different.

Arcangues was a European racehorse who was battling back problems when he was entered in the Breeder’s Cup classic. Due to his nagging injury he was given a lighter training schedule and adequate time to prepare for the classic.

What people don’t know about Arcangues is that he was the winner of one of the most prestigious mile and a quarter turf races in France and that he trained over a dirt track in preparation for the classic. Most horses are more versatile than they are given credit for, and are only a step slower on one surface over another. Arcangues was a perfect example of this. He was better on turf, but liked dirt very much.

When he went to post for the Classic, Jerry Bailey could not hear te instructions that Andre Farber was giving him, but this proved to be a blessing in disguise. Bailey know that most European horses don’t flash a lot of early speed, so he should probably just let Arcangues relax, let the race unfold and attack when the timing is right. Now, this instinctual riding method doesn’t work when used by a young jockey, but Jerry Bailey was an experienced jockey who is probably the most intelligent man to ever set his foot in the irons.

When the gates opened, what you had in Arcangues was a horse who loved the classic distance being ridden instinctually by the greatest American rider of all time. In other words, David was actually Goliath. In fact, it may have helped that Bailey knew just about all of Bertrando’s tendencies, but Stevens didn’t know anything about Arcangues tendencies.

When Arcangues crossed the wire first, the Southern Californian crowd was stunned to see some unknown horse defeat their champion. Unfortunately for the bettors, that unknown horse was actually one of the best French horses whose turf skills transferred well to dirt.