A lot of times statistical data just confirms hunches that you already had. Well one hunch I have is that a horse race comes down to basically two metrics: speed and lengths gained; but which one is more important than the other depends on how the race unfolds. There are many ways to categorize a race, but in the interest of time and my own sanity I’ll break it down like this: races built for speed-horses, races for stalkers, races for deep stalkers and races for closers. All four of these races come down to speed and lengths gained, but the importance of these two metrics in relation to one another is what differs from race to race.

Speed: A race that caters to speed-horses could be one where the lone speed will dictate the race, or it could be one where the speed-bias on the track is so unbelievably bad that no matter how fast they go early on in the race, the speed will carry. The scenario under which the speed-horse dominates doesn’t matter, all that matters is if you think this race will play kindly to speed, you should factor each horse’s speed rating more than their lengths gained rating. I’m currently using a 70:30 ratio of speed to lengths gained. I will tell you how well it works next week in part two of this blog.

Stalker: Races that play well to stalkers are races where the speed is getting pushed just enough to the point where he’s getting tired but a speed-duel hasn’t developed. Usually if I see three horses that want but don’t need the lead, I think to myself this is a stalkers race. Of course, the fractional times are irrelevant because what is fast for one group of horses will be slow for another group. I’m currently using a 60:40 ratio for this type of race.

The next two styles are self-explanatory at this point so I’ll just say that the deep stalker ratio is 50:50 speed to lengths gained and the deep closer is 40:60 speed to lengths gained.

Of course, there are pitfalls to all of this. The biggest one is that I am not including jockeys and trainers. The reason for this is the Breeder’s Cup. Jockeys run hot and cold and there is no metric that can account for this. Mike was worth a 160 on both days of the Breeder’s Cup, but who could’ve predicted he was capable of that? It’s more or less the same with trainers, Baffert is a future hall of famer but there is something with him and the BC Classic that defies logic therefore cannot be accounted for. As always, use your discretion when it comes to jockeys and trainers. If it seems like a jockey is on a hot streak, take that into consideration.

As most people on the backstretch will tell you, a horses workout time is less relevant compared to how they did the workout. Also, as the speed of the track changes from day to day the results are distorted even more. For example, Paynter took to the track and turned in 5 furlongs in 1:00 and three, then two days later Declaration of War turns in 5 furlongs in 1:01. So, who had the better workout? The answer is whoever got more out of it, which is not always easy to discern from just going by the times.

Why I’m excited to test this out:

At risk of sounding biased, the speed rating and lengths gained rating are the two most accurate measures of a horse’s performance I have ever seen. Do I think that there will ever be a day when you can just turn off your brain, look at raw numbers and correctly predict a horse race? Absolutely not, however these two numbers are as close as one will ever get because they are accurate measurements of the two factors that make a horse successful. Just like how a boxing match is composed of a million different factors but is mainly hitting and blocking, a horse race is composed of a million different factors but is mainly speed and gaining lengths on your opponents. The horse that can do these two things successfully is the winner.

So, here’s what I am going to do.

I’m going to handicap two cards at two different tracks using this system. I have decided to pick two tracks on opposite ends of the country so as to not be regionally biased. I will handicap Hollywood Park on Saturday and Aqueduct on Sunday. In the interest of transparency, I will post my selections by Saturday morning. I will not handicap every single race simply because that is not my handicapping style. I will handicap four races from each track and you can follow along with my picks from home if you like.

If you’re up for some friendly trash talk you can find me on Twitter @TAnalytic