Breeder’s Cup.

With all of the hype and hoopla surrounding the Breeder’s Cup it’s easy to forget that it all began with a simple but passionate man named John Gaines. Gaines was unique in that he sold almost all of what he bred, in other words he was the epitome of a breeder. In celebration of the Breeder’s Cup and Mr. Gaines I am going to analyze the most influential sirelines of the past seven Breeder’s Cups and see which horses may be destined for greatness based on bloodlines alone.

After reviewing the top three finishers of every single race and assigning 2 points for siring a winner and one point for siring a horse who placed, and only keeping the best result, I noticed nine sires whose names came up over and over again. Unbridled’s Song, Tapit, Smart Strike, Pulpit, More than Ready, Mineshaft, Distorted Humor, Awesome Again and A.P. Indy.

A.P. Indy is a kingmaker

I knew that A.P. Indy is the greatest sire of the modern era, but even I was shocked by where the data took me. Keep in mind that this data represents the last seven years of the Breeder’s Cup, so while the sample size is small it also gives great insight into which sires are relevant right now. We all know that 25% of his runners have been stakes winners, but I still found it tough to believe that he is also one of the most successful sires in the Breeder’s Cup. The cup is a great sample because the races are all so different. The one thing that they all have in common is that you need class in order to do well. So, not only did the courageous stallion make it, but so did two of his sons and his grandson- the “it” stallion Tapit. I say this all to put perspective to the enormous stallion fees this line carries- the A.P. Indy sireline is worth every penny. It should also be noted that the big four (A.P. Indy, Pulpit, Mineshaft and Tapit) racked up most of their points in the types of races that America is trying to get better at winning like the Classic and the Marathon. Like I said before, I go where the data takes me, but I’m glad that it confirmed my belief that the next American superstar is most likely going to come from the A.P. Indy sireline.

The dosage index matters (sort of)

This one has to be taken with a grain of salt because of the how closely related these horses are. What I’m trying to say is that the low dosage of all these horses may just be a result of the fact that they all have some form of A.P. Indy or Mr. Prospector or in the case of Pulpit and Mineshaft, both. So, it really may just be a coincidence that these bloodlines have a low dosage.

Inbreeding-Bad for humans good for horses

There has been a big push against inbreeding within the first five generations, but we may have to rethink that. Horses that were inbred within the first five generations seemed to be overrepresented, while complete outcrosses tended to be underrepresented. The inbreeding pattern that seems to be most overrepresented is 5×5. Inbreeding in the fifth generation seems to work well when trying to produce a classic horse. Of course, it also must be said that certain families of racehorses just tend to compete well in the Breeder’s Cup, so breeding from these families is better than avoiding them if you want to produce a classic horse.

American Sires are Versatile

If you pay attention to nothing else, pay attention to this- American horses are underbet in both the Breeder’s Cup Mile, Juvenile Fillies Turf and Turf Sprint. I will give specific recommendations on how to play the cup next week, so lease make sure to be on the lookout, but the general rule of thumb is play American sires in every type of race except turf routes. They are being played in turf sprints, but not as often as they should, they are still being underbet; though it is less and less each year.

Some sires to look out for are Tapit, Unbridled’s Song and More than Ready. They are all associated with dirt but this is solely perception- they can sire turf horses as long as it isn’t a turf route so play them!

Let’s take a look at top three finishers by these sires and the odds shall we?

Noble Tune (3.9)
Unbridled’s Note (4.7)
Tapitsfly (2.6)
Laragh (9.8)
Pluck (6.4)
Stopshoppingmaria (8.8)
More than Real (13.6)
Regally Ready (2.3)

Remember, next week I will tweet the five best longshots on the entire card so please follow me on twitter @taanalytic.