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    Turf Milers

    Starting with the previous week’s blog, I have been doing a lot of thinking about how perception is reality; especially in the world of sports. There seems to be a blind acceptance of what we were told and we don’t dig further in order to uncover the truth. The best example of this is the assumption that European turf horses are almost always better than their American counterparts. This assumption is basically false.

    On the World Thoroughbred Rankings, Wise Dan has miraculously clawed his way to a 129 rating which has put him in second place behind the talented mare Black Caviar. This is a marked improvement from the fall of last year when the World Thoroughbred Rankings assigned Wise Dan a rating of 124 and Frankel a rating of 140. In other words, they felt that a race between these two champions wouldn’t even be a contest.

    The bias that this organization has against our turf horses is quite amusing considering that we used to stand Danzig, and most would agree that there may never be a turf sire with his uncanny ability to sire a champion and lift the breed to new heights. So, if we have stood sires like Danzig, Theatrical and Cozzene how can we be a turf-racing backwater? The answer is perception.

    Exclude Del Mar, Saratoga, Keeneland , Colonial Downs and Arlington Park and you would be hard pressed to find a track that truly loves turf. Some trainers only like the money that comes with turf races and would rather we get rid of these turf contests altogether; however, the fact still remains that American turf horses are a force to be reckoned with regardless of our affinity for the surface because our commercial breeders still have a love for the surface. Still to this day, the major breeding operations in America are all willing to stand sires that have in the past or are capable in the future of producing turf milers.

    Without a race to actually back it up, everything is conjecture, but Frankel and Wise Dan did have one common foe-Excelebration. Frankel beat up on Excelebration with regularity and easily was the better horse. When Excelebration came across the pond to contest the Breeder’s Cup, our own fans picked him as the favorite over Wise Dan, but Wise Dan gave Excelebration a sound beating similar to the ones he was accustomed to getting from Frankel. This all leads me to believe that Wise Dan could have run stride for stride with Frankel and possibly have beaten him. It is all conjecture, and maybe Frankel really was the superhorse everyone thought he was, but we will never know for sure.

    It’s really something to see Wise Dan claim the second spot in the rankings – a sign that the World Thoroughbred Rankings understands greatness when they see it – at least to some extent – or European turf racing is very weak this year. I also have to say that the ranking committee has placed our dirt horses in the top spot for many years, so they do hold half of our racing stock in high regard.

    With the Breeder’s Cup looming over the horizon, we may get to see Wise Dan take on the mile one more time if his health permits. I would also like to see the best international miler competing against him (A mile may be too much for Black Caviar). I truly believe that on our best day, we are just as good at producing world class turf milers as the rest of the world is, but we need them to run their best horses against us in order to prove that this is the case.

    America will always be a dirt first, turf second racing landscape, but surprisingly this has not hindered our ability to produce world-class turf milers. I challenge Eurpean racing fans to look into our turf history and see how rich it is. The tradition that was started by great all-purpose sires was continued by horses like Danzig and now it seems like the mantle will be passed to horses like Street Sense, Hard Spun and Kitten’s Joy. Yes Europe, dirt racing will always be our primary passion, but America is a big place and there is more than enough room for a few good American turf milers.

    Lets save horse racing

    Image certainly isn’t everything, but it does count for a lot.

    A few days ago, my league’s fantasy football draft took place. The mix of people was eclectic to say the least. You had people who ate, slept and breathed the sport and then you had people who thought Tebow was worthy of a first round pick. Together, we as a group of people completely debunked the myth that you actually have to know something about football in order to enjoy fantasy football. This all made me wonder why the same thing can’t happen to horse racing.

    The average fantasy football fan who knows nothing about the sport soon realizes that knowledge is power. She then starts watching actual football games in order to gain an understanding of the sport, and winds up developing a cursory knowledge of the actual sport of football. She is easily able to identify the Brady’s, Manning’s and Rodgers’ of the sport. If someone had a reason to pay attention to horse racing for 16 weeks, she would easily be able to identify the Baffert’s, Lukas’ and Pletcher’s of the sport.

    So why can’t we get the casual fan to pay attention to our sport for 16 consecutive weeks? It’s because the format of our sport is so alien to the general public that they fail everytime their brain tries to comprehend it. Casual fans always ask me when is the horse racing off-season? They always ask me what is your version of the playoffs? Who is leading the standings?

    When I tell them that there is no off-season, we have no playoffs and no one is leading any standings, but the best horse as voted on by some old people will get this thing called an Eclipse Award, they’re figurative heads begin to explode.

    We have to steal shamelessly from NASCAR

    Our best horses can only run sparingly, so they cannot be the focus anymore. The jockey and trainer have to be the focus. They have to start competing in a season long battle for points and every graded stakes race has to count. I don’t believe that NASCAR is a superior sport to horse racing, but it sure is accessible. The same thirty or so drivers are competing for points each week and there is some team format. We need to have a team format as well.

    The economics of racing makes things difficult. The owners have more money than they could ever hope for, so we cannot incentivize them with money, but we can with prestige. I am sure we could have a night each month with seven races-one in each major division, the top owners would agree to compete in each race each month until the season was over. They are not obligated to supply the same horse each time, so for example, Mike Repole could use Overanalyze or he could use Micromanage, but he would have to use one of them. Owners like Mike Repole; guys with bravado and flair would love the chance to put his stable up against the best stables in the country. Every single month there would be an event that would attract interest from the general public because it would be about the owners. Owners always show up, they don’t get sick, they don’t get season ending injuries from a mild gallop and they are rarely ever at a loss for words.

    All of the races that we currently have can remain intact. The only thing that would change is when the races are run considering that we need seven major races on the same day. The jockeys and trainers could also receive points towards end of the year honors. With the point system in place, the jockeys would now become stars just like NASCAR drivers. They would be eligible for endorsement deals and would not need to rely on their earnings at the track as much as they used to.

    With the attention placed squarely on the owners, trainers and jockeys, years such as this one – a year with no three-year-old stars to speak of – wouldn’t be such a major blow to the sport. The fans would be so wrapped up in the points race between Pletcher and Baffert that they wouldn’t have time to notice that the three-year old division has no superstars.

    If owners wanted to compete in this series, they would need a plethora of horses. Turf, dirt, sprinter, router, two-year old and older horses. The days of owners stacking their barns with cheap speed horses would not be gone, but it would be further in the distance, because owners would think with a team building mentality. We could even have corporations sponsor the teams and have jockeys ride exclusively for one particular stable. The casual fan likes the concept of team sports and would certainly comprehend the idea of a jockey riding exclusively for a particular stable.

    The greatest benefit would be the image overhaul that would take place. With the team being front and center, horse racing would appear as what it really is – the everyman’s sport. Guys like Repole, Baffert and Zito – guys that people can relate to, would be the ambassadors of the game. Children wouldn’t be ashamed to admit they follow horse racing because guys from “the neighborhood” are in the racing industry, so it can’t be a pretentious county club sport.

    In the United States of America marketing is king. While NASCAR markets its sport as something accesible and egalitarian, we market our sport as something perplexing and elitist. So, it should come as no surprise that when a young child from the inner city displays a genuine interest in our sport, those around him then ridicule him. There is a battle going on for the next generation of sports fans, we need to get in the proverbial ring and start fighting.

    Complete Travers Stakes Analysis

    In thoroughbred racing, as in life there highs and lows. I grew up watching the Travers stakes and honestly, it is my second favorite race next to the Kentucky Derby. So, you can imagine my disappointment when two weeks before last years race I saw that it was shaping up to be the most irrelevant it has been in years. I bought a plane ticket to Del Mar and soaked up the sun as I watched Golden Ticket battle Alpha as a bunch of people in the stands pretended to care about the outcome. Luckily, this years Travers is shaping up to be the most relevant one of the last twenty years. Orb, Palice Malice and Verrazano are freaks, and any trainer would be lucky to have one of these horses in his or her barn. So, lets get to handicapping this beast of a race shall we?

    When handicapping a race like this, you need to start off by looking at the TA indicator and adjusting it slightly based on your own handicapping acumen.

    Verrazano leads the way with a TA indicator of 82.91 and most of that is justified. I said it in Kentucky when the horse made a fool of me and I’ll say it again; Verrazano is a lot like Smarty Jones-a mile and a sixteenth horse who can stretch out of he absolutely must do so. I do think that Moreno will keep him honest through the first three quarters of a mile but will not press him, this means that Verrazano shoul have enough in the tank to make a very strong finish. Please use this horse in most of your wagers.

    Orb had the second highest TA indicator, which was almost as high as Verrazano’s, which means the computer is almost as torn as I am. Look, I am not claiming that Orb is a super horse, but he is very good when rested. He has the talent to spot Verrazano a five length lead and still run him down. He is also lucky that Moreno should be keeping things honest up front. Do you remember the Florida Derby? I have a very strong feeling that Orb will run back to that race, and if he does, he will be victorious on Saturday.

    The TA indicator has Palice Malice at third and I think the TA indicator is being way too nice. The horse ran against a bunch of horses in the Belmont Stakes who lacked closing kick; and though I like his Jim Dandy effort, he could’ve done even more considering how weak that field was. What I do like about this horse is his pure stalking style, but if the Belmont and Jim Dandy were the best he’s got, then there is no way he is passing Verrazano and holding off Orb; I just don’t see it happening.

    I really liked War Dancer even before I saw his TA indicator. I really believe that you can tell a lot about a horse from how he runs the last three eighths of a mile, and War Dancer runs them beautifully. Watching this horse run is like watching Tom Brady of Peyton Manning play football. It’s not flashy, but it’s a performance full of heart from a competitor that truly wants to win. It is also worth noting that he has the highest average finish rating of all the horses in the field. This horse will be there late and fighting hard. He is certainly the best value of the longshots.

    So, how do we handicap this race?
    Palice Malice will be overvalued.

    He is probably the fourth best horse in the field and may go off as the favorite-bet against him and thank everyone who is foolish enough not to do the same. I am not saying that he’s the same horse that you saw in the Kentucky Derby, but I am saying that if he regresses even slightly off of his Jim Dandy effort he will lose, and I think that he will regress.

    Even though Verrazano is rated slightly higher than Orb, it is basically a tie.

    I would play both of them, putting more money on the horse that I personally felt more comfortable with. Do not be scared off by the pace scenario as it is highly unlikely that Ortiz will try and get into a speed duel with Johnny Velasquez. I do think that you should draw a line through the Kentucky Derby and analyze these two horses for everything else they have done; and if you do you will realize that there is very little separating them.

    Take a good look at War Dancer.

    He probably won’t win it all, but he will come running late. He has plenty of heart and finished first in the handicapping metric that matters the most, which is pretty impressive considering the high quality of horses that he has been running against lately. I do believe that he can handle the dirt. According to his trainer, he is a better dirt horse than Java’s War, and who am I to argue with a man who spends ten hours a day with these horses?

    Post Position Analysis

    Sometimes it is so easy to get caught up in the minutia of handicapping that we ignore the basics. Post position is one of the most misused pieces of handicapping information in our sport. There are times to beware, and there are times to completely disregard it. Knowing which time calls for which strategy is what allows the truly great handicappers to shine.

    The reason I chose these two tracks is because they illustrate my point the best. The rail exhibits a clear advantage at both tracks, but it is also easy to win from the middle of the track as well. While post ten and eleven aren’t at a significant disadvantage at Belmont, they are at a disadvantage at Gulfstream.

    Do you know why that is?

    Due to the configuration of the track, there is a sharp turn at the start of the route race forcing all but the fastest horses to take the first turn wide at Gulfstream, hence putting them at a disadvantage. In other words, it is not disadvantageous to draw post twelve, rather it is disadvantageous to draw post twelve if you do not have speed. This means that while Orb would have some trouble with that post position, Verrazano would not. Likewise, post position one is a huge advantage but not in the event where the horse in post position two is a speed horse.

    If you think like a jockey, this all starts to make a lot of sense. You start to realize that your horse’s running style affects whether or not a post position is truly desirable. The rail yields the most winners because there is only one scenario in which it’s a bad spot to be. the outside post at most tracks are not bad if you have the speed to cover or if you are a stone cold closer like Zenyatta. If you live out on the west coast, notice how Garrett Gomez and Mike Smith will adjust their horses running styles according to post position. Mike and Garrett will send a stalker to the lead if they are on an outside post position because they do not want to get caught wide around the turn. In fact, the two most strategic jockeys at every track can ride any post position. So, if you have the right horse and the right jockey, you can almost completely disregard post position. If the horse’s running style and jockey are bad matches then post position will come into play. It is also important to note that certain jockeys have bad touch and if they draw outside will send their horses too hard and wind up speeding into the first turn, hence tiring their horses out.

    The horse and jockey to your left matter. If I see a frontrunner that I like breaking next to a stone cold closer, I know that it will be fairly easy for my horse to get out of the gate safely and into position quickly. If I see my horse who is a frontrunner breaking next to another frontrunner, I start to get worried that a speed duel will develop. If a speed duel develops you can almost surely rip up your ticket and wait for the next race because a half mile in 44 seconds flat is not a recipe for success unless the race is five furlongs or less.

    Handicap the jockeys. When have you ever seen Corey Nakatani not go towards the front if he has the horse for it? If you see Nakatani breaking on the extreme inside or outside, you know that he’s going to try and sit in second the whole way, so use that to your advantage and handicap accordingly. Just like people in everyday life, some jockeys are affected by what is around them and some are not. Once you know a jockey’s tendencies you should be able to tell how he will react to a certain post position. You should be able to tell who will get hung around the first turn and who will not. Once again, some jockeys are affected by post position and some are not.

    Post positions one and two are very good. Since centrifugal force takes you to the outside, one must be incredibly strong in order to keep the rail closed; most jockeys simply do not possess this type of strength. This is why the horse sitting behind the leader on the rail has a huge advantage over the other horses. So, if you can realistically see your horse being the one sitting on the rail, you do not have to worry about traffic problems.

    So, is post position important? It all depends on who the jockey is, which track it is, the horses running style, and who is breaking to the left of that horse. A great handicapper knows when to pay attention to post position and just as importantly when not to.

    Marathon at the Spa

    When Mad Hatter won the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 1921, he lay claim to greatness as only few horses can nowadays. He had run on dirt; the less forgiving of the two major surfaces, and he had won at a distance of two miles which is something that you do not see anymore.

    Every year, the racing secretary at Saratoga tries to turn back the clock on this great sport of ours and remember the past by holding a flat dirt race at two miles. As I was combing through my app for races to handicap, I realized that this year’s two mile race will be held this Friday. It will be third race of the day and expected post time is
    1:04 p.m. It’s your standard allowance optional claiming, but the distance will give one of the horses a chance to shine and pay homage to the greats of yesteryear.

    Almost every person with little to no interest in horse racing always says the same thing as through they were all part of a cult. They all ask “why are the races so short?” They are usually referring to races a mile or less. They feel that it is all about who gets position into the first turn and nothing more. Though I am willing to admit that they are being a little simplistic in their analysis, there is a kernel of truth in there. Dirt racing gives the frontrunner such a great advantage that it is fairly difficult to come roaring off the pace if the frontrunner isn’t truly fatigued. So, having a great gate rider on a speed horse is usually a recipe for winning. This is why I always add two points to a horses TA indicator when it is being ridden by Bejarano in a one-turn sprint.

    To break it down, what the casual observer is noticing is that while a sprint and a classic route are both horse races, one is a hundred year old Sauvignon Blanc and the other is the dollar beer you get at Del Mar with your pizza. Though there is a time and place for both, and clearly one of them is a lot easier on your wallet, you wouldn’t treat your friends to dollar beers if you won the superfecta.

    Now for the part that you have all been waiting for: The analysis of the race itself!

    Using the Thoroughbred Analytics algorithm and adjusting the weighing of the metrics where appropriate, I have keyed in on two horses who seem poised to go the distance and assert their greatness.

    State Flag: He’s owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey and has the breeding that you would expect from one of their horses. Of course, he’s also backed up his breeding by some strong efforts going a distance. I especially liked his third place effort two starts back because he went a mile and a quarter, sat off a very tepid pace, yet was able to close into it halfway decently. The numbers are really in his favor across the board and his tactical speed should help him. My only concern with State Flag is that he lacks that killer instinct to pass horses and finish off a race. The horse has only one win even though he was much the best in at least four of his races.

    Le Deluge: His last three races haven’t been very impressive at all, but when re-weighing certain key metrics he really stands out. The horse likes distance. His problem is that he’s a plodder-he has no acceleration. You think of him as the anti-Goldikova. Now, here’s the beauty of this race; he has two whole miles to plod to his hearts content and ware these other horses down. The numbers say that he can do it. I love how well he scores in the metrics that matter the most. His lack of acceleration won’t hurt him very much and due to the fact that he runs routes so often-something you never see nowadays-he should be well conditioned for this race. Like I said before, his main foe will be State Flag. It seems as though the race will go to whomever gets the pace scenario to his advantage. My advice would be to include both of these horses in your plays and mix in whatever other horses you like for good measure.

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