In thoroughbred racing, as in life there highs and lows. I grew up watching the Travers stakes and honestly, it is my second favorite race next to the Kentucky Derby. So, you can imagine my disappointment when two weeks before last years race I saw that it was shaping up to be the most irrelevant it has been in years. I bought a plane ticket to Del Mar and soaked up the sun as I watched Golden Ticket battle Alpha as a bunch of people in the stands pretended to care about the outcome. Luckily, this years Travers is shaping up to be the most relevant one of the last twenty years. Orb, Palice Malice and Verrazano are freaks, and any trainer would be lucky to have one of these horses in his or her barn. So, lets get to handicapping this beast of a race shall we?

When handicapping a race like this, you need to start off by looking at the TA indicator and adjusting it slightly based on your own handicapping acumen.

Verrazano leads the way with a TA indicator of 82.91 and most of that is justified. I said it in Kentucky when the horse made a fool of me and I’ll say it again; Verrazano is a lot like Smarty Jones-a mile and a sixteenth horse who can stretch out of he absolutely must do so. I do think that Moreno will keep him honest through the first three quarters of a mile but will not press him, this means that Verrazano shoul have enough in the tank to make a very strong finish. Please use this horse in most of your wagers.

Orb had the second highest TA indicator, which was almost as high as Verrazano’s, which means the computer is almost as torn as I am. Look, I am not claiming that Orb is a super horse, but he is very good when rested. He has the talent to spot Verrazano a five length lead and still run him down. He is also lucky that Moreno should be keeping things honest up front. Do you remember the Florida Derby? I have a very strong feeling that Orb will run back to that race, and if he does, he will be victorious on Saturday.

The TA indicator has Palice Malice at third and I think the TA indicator is being way too nice. The horse ran against a bunch of horses in the Belmont Stakes who lacked closing kick; and though I like his Jim Dandy effort, he could’ve done even more considering how weak that field was. What I do like about this horse is his pure stalking style, but if the Belmont and Jim Dandy were the best he’s got, then there is no way he is passing Verrazano and holding off Orb; I just don’t see it happening.

I really liked War Dancer even before I saw his TA indicator. I really believe that you can tell a lot about a horse from how he runs the last three eighths of a mile, and War Dancer runs them beautifully. Watching this horse run is like watching Tom Brady of Peyton Manning play football. It’s not flashy, but it’s a performance full of heart from a competitor that truly wants to win. It is also worth noting that he has the highest average finish rating of all the horses in the field. This horse will be there late and fighting hard. He is certainly the best value of the longshots.

So, how do we handicap this race?
Palice Malice will be overvalued.

He is probably the fourth best horse in the field and may go off as the favorite-bet against him and thank everyone who is foolish enough not to do the same. I am not saying that he’s the same horse that you saw in the Kentucky Derby, but I am saying that if he regresses even slightly off of his Jim Dandy effort he will lose, and I think that he will regress.

Even though Verrazano is rated slightly higher than Orb, it is basically a tie.

I would play both of them, putting more money on the horse that I personally felt more comfortable with. Do not be scared off by the pace scenario as it is highly unlikely that Ortiz will try and get into a speed duel with Johnny Velasquez. I do think that you should draw a line through the Kentucky Derby and analyze these two horses for everything else they have done; and if you do you will realize that there is very little separating them.

Take a good look at War Dancer.

He probably won’t win it all, but he will come running late. He has plenty of heart and finished first in the handicapping metric that matters the most, which is pretty impressive considering the high quality of horses that he has been running against lately. I do believe that he can handle the dirt. According to his trainer, he is a better dirt horse than Java’s War, and who am I to argue with a man who spends ten hours a day with these horses?