Sometimes it is so easy to get caught up in the minutia of handicapping that we ignore the basics. Post position is one of the most misused pieces of handicapping information in our sport. There are times to beware, and there are times to completely disregard it. Knowing which time calls for which strategy is what allows the truly great handicappers to shine.

The reason I chose these two tracks is because they illustrate my point the best. The rail exhibits a clear advantage at both tracks, but it is also easy to win from the middle of the track as well. While post ten and eleven aren’t at a significant disadvantage at Belmont, they are at a disadvantage at Gulfstream.

Do you know why that is?

Due to the configuration of the track, there is a sharp turn at the start of the route race forcing all but the fastest horses to take the first turn wide at Gulfstream, hence putting them at a disadvantage. In other words, it is not disadvantageous to draw post twelve, rather it is disadvantageous to draw post twelve if you do not have speed. This means that while Orb would have some trouble with that post position, Verrazano would not. Likewise, post position one is a huge advantage but not in the event where the horse in post position two is a speed horse.

If you think like a jockey, this all starts to make a lot of sense. You start to realize that your horse’s running style affects whether or not a post position is truly desirable. The rail yields the most winners because there is only one scenario in which it’s a bad spot to be. the outside post at most tracks are not bad if you have the speed to cover or if you are a stone cold closer like Zenyatta. If you live out on the west coast, notice how Garrett Gomez and Mike Smith will adjust their horses running styles according to post position. Mike and Garrett will send a stalker to the lead if they are on an outside post position because they do not want to get caught wide around the turn. In fact, the two most strategic jockeys at every track can ride any post position. So, if you have the right horse and the right jockey, you can almost completely disregard post position. If the horse’s running style and jockey are bad matches then post position will come into play. It is also important to note that certain jockeys have bad touch and if they draw outside will send their horses too hard and wind up speeding into the first turn, hence tiring their horses out.

The horse and jockey to your left matter. If I see a frontrunner that I like breaking next to a stone cold closer, I know that it will be fairly easy for my horse to get out of the gate safely and into position quickly. If I see my horse who is a frontrunner breaking next to another frontrunner, I start to get worried that a speed duel will develop. If a speed duel develops you can almost surely rip up your ticket and wait for the next race because a half mile in 44 seconds flat is not a recipe for success unless the race is five furlongs or less.

Handicap the jockeys. When have you ever seen Corey Nakatani not go towards the front if he has the horse for it? If you see Nakatani breaking on the extreme inside or outside, you know that he’s going to try and sit in second the whole way, so use that to your advantage and handicap accordingly. Just like people in everyday life, some jockeys are affected by what is around them and some are not. Once you know a jockey’s tendencies you should be able to tell how he will react to a certain post position. You should be able to tell who will get hung around the first turn and who will not. Once again, some jockeys are affected by post position and some are not.

Post positions one and two are very good. Since centrifugal force takes you to the outside, one must be incredibly strong in order to keep the rail closed; most jockeys simply do not possess this type of strength. This is why the horse sitting behind the leader on the rail has a huge advantage over the other horses. So, if you can realistically see your horse being the one sitting on the rail, you do not have to worry about traffic problems.

So, is post position important? It all depends on who the jockey is, which track it is, the horses running style, and who is breaking to the left of that horse. A great handicapper knows when to pay attention to post position and just as importantly when not to.