“Just once, I would like there to be something special about being the kid stuck in the middle.”

– Karen Tayleur

When Karen Tayleur wrote these words, little did she know that her wishes and fantasies were about to become reality- at least as it pertains to horse racing.

For years the racing industry has had this belief that broodmares do not produce great foals in the beginning and end of their careers, rather it is the middle of their broodmare careers in which they shine.

The statistical analysis that has been done over the past decade suggests that there is some truth to this – sort of. In terms of stakes winners, broodmares have great success with their second, third and fifth foal, but even statistics have to be taken with a grain of salt.

The raw numbers show broodmares producing stakes winners at a 3.25% clip with the first foal and 4.59% clip with the fifth foal and if my math serves me correctly, this is a 41% difference. The difference seems pretty significant; and it is, until we look at the qualitative side of things. Everyone in horse racing knows that selecting the right sire for a broodmare is crucial. We also know that breeders usually do a terrible job of this – picking a big name sire even though he nicks terribly with the broodmare. This genetic mismatch is why the resulting foal usually underperforms. It is not until the second mating that the breeder has a good handle on how his broodmare will match up with a prospective suitor. So, we would expect that other than the stakes win percentage of the first foal, all other win percentages when ordered by birth rank would be approximately the same right? Well, something is rotten in Denmark because this is not the case. There appears to be a significant statistical drop-off after the mare’s ninth foal. Once a mare hits double-digit foals she indeed does appear to lose some of her magic! So, why is this?

Well, older mares are usually bred to either lesser stallions like a $3,000 Florida stallion or they are bred to new, unproven sires who may not be as good as the market had hoped for. The latter is done in order to get the new stallion off to a good start, but it drags the broodmare down unfortunately. If you look at the careers of some famous broodmares, you do tend to notice that they are bred to stallions that have plenty of hype behind them but not a lot of substance. For instance, Mineshaft has covered some of the most famous broodmares on the planet, but surely there are better sires. Smarty Jones covered the best older broodmares in the country, but has shown to nick much better with younger cheaper females for whatever reason.

So, here is where it gets confusing. There is a drop-off between a broodmare’s second through ninth foals and the foals that she has after that. The majority of this drop-off can be attributed to the fact that she is being bred to lesser sires; however, a small part of it is due to old age. So, if you mated the same broodmare to the same stallion ten times, the first born through ninth born would all be slightly better than her tenth child on average. In other words, the middle children in horse racing are the beneficiaries of a perfect storm. The breeder gets the hang of what his broodmare likes and dislikes after the first foal or two, and breeds her well the next five or six tries, and the broodmare is slightly more adept at passing off her genetic material the first nine times, hence giving the middle children a slight advantage. Of course, I must reiterate that the broodmare is only slightly at fault, and only after the ninth child. The breeder is the main culprit in all of this. It also needs to be said that there are exceptions to every rule of horse racing. Secretariats dam-Somethingroyal- was eighteen when she gave birth to Secretariat. I believe that he was her 16th child. Due to the stigma against the children of older mares, he was not highly regarded upon birth. I say all of this to remind everyone that birth rank and racing performance are only slightly correlated, and good judgement should always be used. If Penny Chenery were a fan of statistical research, she never would have picked Secretariat. As legend has it, when Bold Ruler had a boy and a girl the Phipps family received first pick and chose the girl, but Chenery didn’t mind because she saw something in the boy and wanted him anyway; that boy would grow up to be Secretariat.

So, the next time you are at an auction and you see a foal who is the tenth child or higher of a broodmare, you should definitely inspect him closely, but if your gut tells you that there is something special about this foal you should listen to your gut, you might just be in the presence of the next Secretariat.

There’s an old saying in the racing business that the fastest way to a million dollars is to start off with two million dollars. Whoever uttered these words clearly was not in the business of selling yearlings. Although I could write an article about how yearlings from sires such as Lemon Drop Kid and Exchange Rate are terrific values and actually turn a profit for their buyers, it’s much more fun to write an article about yearlings who are overvalued.

When a brand name sire has a yearling with good confirmation (bone structure and proportions that seem conducive to winning races) people tend to drive up that horse’s price to unbelievable heights. This year’s prime example came at the September yearling sale when a horse sired by Tapit out of Pretty N Smart sold for a staggering one million dollars! The horse is currently referred to as Hip# 325 as it waits to receive a name. He actually has good confirmation and a nice chestnut coat.; the problem is the price.

I will not argue that Tapit isn’t one of the top 5 sires in the world right now, but lets put all of this into perspective. Tapit has sired approximately 1500 runners, 6 of which have gone on to earn over a million dollars. Since Tapit’s progeny do not have a reputation of being world-class sires themselves, I am going to assume the buyer is purchasing this horse primarily for its racing abilities and not its siring abilities. This means that the buyer believes that hip#325 is a horse that comes along 6 out of every 1500 times- that is one special horse!

At the time of this writing two more Tapit foals have sold for over a million dollars! The first one is out of prominent broodmare Avaknowsthecode and the second is by Evrobi. So, what is American racing’s fascination with Tapit?

Well, for starters he actually sires durable horses. His average starts for per runner is usually toward the top of the list which is impressive considering how precocious he was as a racehorse. It is also remarkable considering that he isn’t the most muscular horse and though his confirmation is very good, it is far from remarkable. The industry seems to finally be getting tired of horses who’s progeny can’t get past their two-year old season without getting injured.

Though people outside of the business probably don’t spend much time thinking about it, paying the vet bill for a thoroughbred must feel like owning a car that only runs on 93 gas- a really annoying but ultimately necessary evil. Well, most people seem to be of the opinion that Tapit colts and fillies remain healthy if given the proper care- in other words they’re built Ford tough.

His horses are almost always milers. This is big because American breeders love milers. A miler has enough stamina to sneak out a win in a distance race, and can usually hold their own in sprints. Milers tend to be moneymakers on the track and in the breeding shed. In fact, Case Clay once said something to the effect of, people running breeding operations should look to the Met Mile for stallion prospects. In short, milers make money.

I am embarrassed to reveal the next reason because it sounds silly, but it is not. Out of all the top sires in the country, what seems different about Tapit? Tapit is gray. Yes, his coat color endears him to people. Most thoroughbred owners do not care if you take their decisions seriously because they already have enough money to make it so that your decisions do not affect them. This means that they can pick horses based on coat color genes. Even if a Tapit yearling is brown (many of them are) the horse still has the recessive genes necessary to give birth to a grey horse. If someone conducted a study on coat color and yearling prices, I’m sure that they would find that a given sire’s grey yearlings tend to outsell his non-grey yearlings. This is anecdotal but I’ve seen this on many occasions-so it’s kind of true.

Tapit continues the A.P. Indy sire line. A.P Indy and Danzig were the greatest sires of the last twenty-five years, so any horses that appear to be their heir apparents will be in high demand. Tapit seems to be the heir apparent to A.P. Indy just like Hard Spun may be the heir apparent to Danzig. This is not to say that Tapit is as good as his grandfather A.P. Indy, it just means that he is the best of the active stallions in this sire line. Since he is part of the A.P. Indy sire line, he meshes well with the American broodmare gene pool. You know how people say that there is a certain magic that happens when you cross A.P. Indy with Mr. Prospector? Well there’s a certain magic that happens when you cross Tapit with Mr. Prospector; and there is a lot of Mr. Prospector in the American broodmare gene pool-trust me.

I will be rooting for all of Tapit’s yearlings. The A.P. Indy sire line is the best that we have ever produced and I wish nothing but the best to those who invest in this sire line. Hopefully Tapit will continue to make his mark on the breed and produce the types of horses that this sport has been patiently waiting for.