If you are thinking about putting money on any of the three year olds in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, you simply hate money. I looked at the fractional times of Orb’s 2013 Derby triumph as well as Will Take Charge’s 2013 Travers victory and contrasted them with the corresponding races in 2006 (Barbaro’s derby and Bernardini’s travers). All that I can say is that I hope the 2013 three-year old season is a mirage.

The fractional times that follow are for the first, second and final quarter miles of each race. They all belong to the winner of that race rather than the horse who ran the fastest quarter because the latter would basically be pointless.

Barbaro: (1st: 23.58 2nd: 24.24 5th: 24.34)

Bernardini: (1st: 23.53 2nd: 24.64 5th: 24.77)

Orb: (1st: 23.74 2nd: 23.92 5th: 25.14)

Will Take Charge: (1st: 25.20 2nd: 25.28 5th: 25.86)

I was actually impressed by Orb’s 2nd quarter because on television it didn’t look like he was running that hard in the beginning of the race. It actually looked like he was coming home like a freight train but the fractional times show that he was coming home more like a Ford Fiesta. This race is actually a good representation of who I think Orb truly is; a very solid racehorse with an average closing kick. I think he is still the class of the three-year old division, but Game on Dude should eat him for breakfast if the two cross paths in the Classic.

I have never said anything nice about Will Take Charge other than I like his breeding and connections. According to these fractional times I don’t have to start saying anything nice. Luis Saez was pacing him through the whole race and still this colt could not finish! Now, I know that he beat Orb and that should theoretically contradict what I wrote about Orb in the previous paragraph, but Orb wasn’t cranked up for this race. It also has to be said that Orb is the best horse in what may be the worst class of three-year olds in modern history, so I am no fanboy of the Malibu Moon colt. The biggest thing that sticks out to me is that final quarter. Look at how slowly Orb and WTC came home. I knew that WTC was not the second coming of Secretariat, but I had no idea that his splits were so pathetic.

How do Orb and WTC stack up to Game on Dude?

It seems like they simply don’t. I believe that Shug Mcgaughey can get Orb to repeat something similar to his Derby effort, but that still won’t be enough. Orb simply cannot sit behind honest fractions and run his final quarter in 25 seconds flat. Will Take Charge had everything handed to him in the Travers and still couldn’t come close to a 25 second final quarter. This is the difference between a champion and an also-ran. A champion closes out races strongly rather than staggering to the finish line. Both Barbaro and Bernardini easily ran their final quarter of a mile in under 25 seconds, Game on Dude regularly does the same, Orb and WTC could gallop the first mile and still have trouble getting a 25 second final quarter.

The jockeys seem to understand the limitations of these three-year olds and are riding them as if it were a turf race. They are content to just gallop the first three quarters and then slowly let the horse find rhythm and then go for broke the final quarter of a mile. This is why these final quarter of a miles are so alarming- the jockey is doing everything in his power to make the final quarter as fast as it can be!

I still haven’t included the saddest example of all: the Belmont Stakes. Here is how both horses fared in the Belmont.

Orb: (1st: 25.31, 2nd: 25.95, 5th: 27.30)
Will Take Charge: (1st: 24.61, 2nd: 25.94, 5th: 28.75)

They practically walked home.

I know that the Belmont is a tough race, but that was absolutely pathetic. The saddest thing is that they both have hall of fame trainers, so you know that these performances weren’t due to training errors. These horses just can’t close out a race!

Fractional times speak volumes about a horse. Barbaro and Bernardini were perfect examples of what the modern-day distance horse should be. They both chased honest fractions and were still able to finish out races strongly. Orb and WTC simply do not have the fitness or the natural ability to do the same. If I were riding Game on Dude in the Classic, I would exploit the lack of a closing kick by these two horses. I would give Game on Dude a breather between the half-mile pole and the quarter pole so that Game on Dude could unleash a furious closing kick in the final quarter of a mile and show the racing world how a champion is supposed to close out a race.

Remember, if you use either of these horses in a win bet, you are basically donating money to Santa Anita Park and should claim the wager as a donation and receive the subsequent tax break- you have been warned!