My Kentucky Derby Top 10
There are far too many Derby top 10 lists, but with the futures pool in full swing I thought I would give you guys some insight into who I like and who I would stay away from. The Derby futures pool is a good way to make money, but only if you can stay away from the hype.
10. Bayern: The fact that this horse has ran off the screen is impressive, but what is really impressive is how he does it. He runs his final quarter of a mile around 24 flat. He usually has plenty left in the tank and should get the distance.
9. Cairo Prince: When I was a teenager, I made the mistake of playing Favorite Trick in my Derby exacta. This horse could be Favorite Trick’s long lost brother. If my memory serves me correctly, the derby wasn’t too kind to Favorite Trick and probably won’t be to Cairo Prince either.
8. Intense Holiday: Vicar’s in Trouble is a legitimately good racehorse, so anyone who makes him look like an allowance horse at Golden Gate fields has my respect. Intense Holiday has my respect.
7. Top Billing: Some make too much out of the track bias while other make too little. The way I see it, the leaders ran the first ¾ in 1:10 but it felt like 1:11. This means that Top Billing closed into an honest pace and ran a decent race. He is a derby contender, but there are more impressive horses out there.
6. Mexicoma: I am going to catch a lot of flak for this one. I know that Mexicoma ran a very similar race to Top Billing’s last time out. I also know that it was at the same track and against slightly less intimidating company. The reason I have Mexicoma so high is because he wants a mile and a quarter; he craves the distance. The run for the roses is occasionally won by talent deficient horses who crave distance and at least Mexicoma fits that profile. In short, he has more upside than Top Billing at this point.
5. Shared Belief: I am a huge fan of Hollendorfer’s methods and I like that this horse brings regular people to the track. So yeah, I gave him the five spot.
4. Honor Code: Honor Code seems to be working well and the injury may have been a blessing in disguise as he will have two preps and be fresh for the derby. I like how this horse just chips away at the leaders and has that deep closing style that seems to work well at Churchill Downs, but we won’t know how hot he is until he runs in the Rebel.
3. Candy Boy: He used to be known as the horse who got his butt kicked against Shared Belief until he started doing some but kicking of his own. This is the best horse in the west right now and is only getting better. I seriously considered putting him at number one, but I’m not sure if he beat great horses or glorified allowance horses in the Bob Lewis.
2. Strong Mandate: We know he has the talent. He took the scenic route in the Southwest Stakes and still finished second to Tapiture. My worry with this horse is that he likes to get in trouble and doesn’t have the acceleration to get out of it. He is the type of horse that needs a hall of fame ride in order to win the derby.
1. Tapiture: I honestly believe that we just saw the two three year olds in training run against one another in the Southwest Stakes. Unlike Strong Mandate, Tapiture saved ground and he rated brilliantly! He listened to his jockey’s cue and was full of run coming down the stretch, which leads me to believe he can get the distance.
Next week will be the start of a three part series on the training regimen of a derby champion.
www.thoroughbredanalytics.com
The Best Thoroughbred Horse Trainers
Every legendary racehorse started out as a young colt that did not even know how to break correctly. Some legends, such as Secretariat, didn’t even win their maiden. Basically, every great student first had to have a great teacher, and there is no better teacher than thoroughbred trainers. We all know who the best ones are, but do many of us know why they are the best? I want to share with you some of my favorite trainers and why they have had success with three year olds.
If I told you that a horse you owned just worked 5 furlongs in 59 flat would you be thrilled? You shouldn’t be thrilled. You really shouldn’t be anything because it’s all dependent on what’s normal for your horse. Is he a speedy miler type? If he is, then 59 flat isn’t that tough on him. If he is a cheap claimer, then he probably left his best effort on the training track. The point is that it honestly depends on the horse. Cannanero II was a brilliant racehorse who worked unbelievably slow. When journalists and fellow horseman would ask Juan Arias what he thought of the workouts he would reply “perfecto!” He did this because with Cannanero II less was more. Think of a really good prizefighter like Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao. Given each guys advanced age and incredibly high skill level, don’t you think that they can afford to take a few hours off here and there? I would argue that it would be incredibly beneficial. The same goes for horses like Cannanero II.
When I see horses working in company, I get excited. Seeing how a horse responds to competition is a sure sign of where he is mentally. Look at the way Shared Belief and Bayern work in company. They love the thrill of competition. Take a look at the way they position their head and let their ears flap. They have a quiet determination to them. At the 2007 Kentucky Derby, every single horseman said that two horses were working lights out: Street Sense and Curlin. If I remember correctly, Street Sense dominated and Curlin came in third. This shows that how horses come into a race is incredibly important. When betting the Derby this year, I am going to look at the horses with the top 4 TA indicators and pick the one who’s last major work at Churchill Downs was the most professional. Again, I will pick the one who’s work is the most professional not the fastest.
Home field advantage means a lot. I like when Derby horses have been based in the state of Kentucky for over a month. Churchill and Keenland are great tracks to train for route races on. It also helps because honestly, most horses hate to ship in for a race. They really are like human three year olds. I loved how Fusaichi Pegasus and Street Sense came into the Derby. Nafzger and Drysdale made sure that their horses grew to love Churchill Downs so that they would have one less obstacle to overcome.
If you are going to play a recent shipper (Horses arriving within 14 days of the Derby) make sure that it’s a horse who’s trainer has attempted this before. It also helps if the horse is a more relaxed type like a Zenyatta or a Street Sense. These types of horse refuse to leave their best effort on the training track.
Remember, it is time to start viewing the derby horses that you are interested in through the lens of how they workout. A good horse cannot achieve greatness without a great trainer.
http://www.thoroughbredanalytics.com/