My Kentucky Derby Top 10

There are far too many Derby top 10 lists, but with the futures pool in full swing I thought I would give you guys some insight into who I like and who I would stay away from. The Derby futures pool is a good way to make money, but only if you can stay away from the hype.

10. Bayern: The fact that this horse has ran off the screen is impressive, but what is really impressive is how he does it. He runs his final quarter of a mile around 24 flat. He usually has plenty left in the tank and should get the distance.

9. Cairo Prince: When I was a teenager, I made the mistake of playing Favorite Trick in my Derby exacta. This horse could be Favorite Trick’s long lost brother. If my memory serves me correctly, the derby wasn’t too kind to Favorite Trick and probably won’t be to Cairo Prince either.

8. Intense Holiday: Vicar’s in Trouble is a legitimately good racehorse, so anyone who makes him look like an allowance horse at Golden Gate fields has my respect. Intense Holiday has my respect.

7. Top Billing: Some make too much out of the track bias while other make too little. The way I see it, the leaders ran the first ¾ in 1:10 but it felt like 1:11. This means that Top Billing closed into an honest pace and ran a decent race. He is a derby contender, but there are more impressive horses out there.

6. Mexicoma: I am going to catch a lot of flak for this one. I know that Mexicoma ran a very similar race to Top Billing’s last time out. I also know that it was at the same track and against slightly less intimidating company. The reason I have Mexicoma so high is because he wants a mile and a quarter; he craves the distance. The run for the roses is occasionally won by talent deficient horses who crave distance and at least Mexicoma fits that profile. In short, he has more upside than Top Billing at this point.

5.  Shared Belief: I am a huge fan of Hollendorfer’s methods and I like that this horse brings regular people to the track. So yeah, I gave him the five spot.

4. Honor Code: Honor Code seems to be working well and the injury may have been a blessing in disguise as he will have two preps and be fresh for the derby. I like how this horse just chips away at the leaders and has that deep closing style that seems to work well at Churchill Downs, but we won’t know how hot he is until he runs in the Rebel.

3. Candy Boy: He used to be known as the horse who got his butt kicked against Shared Belief until he started doing some but kicking of his own. This is the best horse in the west right now and is only getting better. I seriously considered putting him at number one, but I’m not sure if he beat great horses or glorified allowance horses in the Bob Lewis.

2. Strong Mandate: We know he has the talent. He took the scenic route in the Southwest Stakes and still finished second to Tapiture. My worry with this horse is that he likes to get in trouble and doesn’t have the acceleration to get out of it. He is the type of horse that needs a hall of fame ride in order to win the derby.

1. Tapiture: I honestly believe that we just saw the two three year olds in training run against one another in the Southwest Stakes. Unlike Strong Mandate, Tapiture saved ground and he rated brilliantly! He listened to his jockey’s cue and was full of run coming down the stretch, which leads me to believe he can get the distance.

Next week will be the start of a three part series on the training regimen of a derby champion.

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