The Breeder’s Cup is fast approaching and one of the most anticipated horses will be a turf miler who hasn’t really done much of anything. He hasn’t won a group one race. He hasn’t beaten a top turf miler. He hasn’t been able to record a win since June of last year. What he has done is win the genetic lottery. Perhaps you have heard of his sister, a lady named Goldikova. Yes, Anodin, the brother of Goldikova will attempt to win the race that his sister has thoroughly dominated: the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

What is it about breeding that makes us think the impossible is possible? If I showed you Anodin’s past performances, but hid his name from you then you would think he’s a plodder who isn’t fit for an allowance at Santa Anita. However, he is royalty and so the racing world is intrigued.

The beauty of horseracing is that family does matter. Siblings can inherit the preferences for distance and surface from their siblings, but they cannot inherit heart. Goldikova was a genetic freak of nature who absolutely craved racing. How else do you explain her longevity? Racing was not in her blood, it was something that she personally desired. Anodin on the other hand, seems to get discouraged by traffic troubles and the physicality of racing. Let’s look at the Queen Anne Stakes. Anodin was given every chance to steal that race from Toronado and couldn’t do it. What do you think Goldikova would’ve done? I think she would’ve gone for the jugular and beaten Toronado by open lengths.

Coming into the 2010 Breeder’s Cup Mile, Goldikova was 4-1-0 in 5 starts. Coming into this year’s Breeder’s Cup Anodin is 0-2-1 in 5 starts. He clearly doesn’t have what made his sister special. You cannot call him the Eli Manning to Goldikova’s Peyton because Eli actually accomplished things in his career. Anodin hasn’t accomplished anything and I don’t think America’s third toughest race (Kentucky Derby and the Classic are more difficult IMO) is a good place to start.

Situations like this are why I am a proponent of algorithmic handicapping. The TA Indicator doesn’t know Anodin’s relatives and quite frankly doesn’t care. The TA Indicator only knows what Anodin has accomplished, or more befittingly has not accomplished.

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