I’ll come right out and say it, no one can handicap every type of race.  Obviously, there are many types of races, but for the sake of simplicity we’ll brake down all races by two factors: surface and distance. For distance, I would divide races by those that are less than 8 furlongs and those that are greater than or equal to 8 furlongs. I would also put Maiden Special Weights in its own category.

The problem we as handicappers face is that we don’t realize how specialized we are. We are not that different from the jockeys and trainers we applaud and criticize. Just like Cristophe Clement is a genius at turf and dirt routes, and no one knows Juveniles like Linda Rice, you have your own specialty as a handicapper. Identifying it is the key to success.

For some reason, I can visualize a dirt route better than any other type of race. I’ve always had a good record and ROI in dirt routes, but I hate turf. I think that lot of turf has to do with class, rather than pace scenario and the amount of lengths that a horse was beaten. In a turf race, a margin of defeat of three turf lengths is roughly equivalent to a margin of defeat of 7.5 dirt lengths. Now, add to that the fact that the beaten horse may have had traffic trouble, a bad post position or trouble navigating the turns, and you see how convoluted turf handicapping can get. Basically, did the jock lose or did the horse? I also have a tendency to play speed, and we all know how well that transfers to turf. I’ll also say that as a more “numbers” based handicapper, I tend to stay away from Maiden Special Weights. I’ve seen War Fronts lose by ten lengths making their dirt debut; Maiden Special Weights are all about reading workouts, and that is not my strength.

My worst pick of the year was Tom’s Tribute in the Breeder’s Cup Mile. My best pick was either V.E. Day in the Travers or Toast of New York in the Classic; what a surprise. I was fooled by Tom’s Tribute’s impressive wins and didn’t factor in the lack of class as much as I should have. With V.E. Day and Toast of New York, they were both 10 furlong horses who were training extremely well leading up to their respective big races. I knew that they both scored really well across the major metrics in the Thoroughbred Analytics Premium Past Performances report. Taking all of this into consideration, those picks were kind of like shooting fish in the proverbial barrel. With the Breeder’s Cup Mile no horse really jumped out at me. I thought Toronado was good and Tom’s Tribute likes California, but I couldn’t visualize the race. I made a “blind pick” and I got what I deserved.

My advice to any and all handicappers would be to play 40 races of each type and record your ROI. Look at the data and figure out what type of handicapper you truly are. After you do this, the hard part comes. You must then have the discipline to sit out the races that play away from your strengths and towards your weaknesses. If you come to realize that you are a dirt route handicapper, this won’t be easy. You’ll be sitting out many a race. Tracks like Canterbury Park and Portland Meadows become virtually unplayable, but this is the only way you stand a chance out there.

So, lets take a page out of Cristophe Clement’s book and stick to the type of race we know; we’ll all be happier people for it. After you do your 40 race analysis, feel free to send it to me via e-mail. I love to see handicappers progress in this game and would love to learn more about the handicapping styles of my readers.

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