I have always believed that the Belmont Stakes is the most honest of the Triple Crown races. It is just a dogfight that is usually won by a horse that has an incredibly high threshold for pain and halfway decent breeding. The best examples of this were Drosselmeyer and Sarava, they both possessed the turn of foot of a claimer with the pain threshold of a champion. After analyzing the field, three horses seem to be cut from the same cloth as Sarava and Drosselmeyer. These three are the most dangerous horses in the field, and Espinoza must keep an eye out for them turning for home. Let’s look at each of the three, and how he will plan to attack the fearless California bred in the Belmont.

Commissioner:

His plan of attack:  His connections have realized that he does his best work three to four lengths off the lead. Look for him to stick to this plan and even put some pressure on Chrome at the three-eighths pole to thwart Chrome’s chances at a triple crown.

How effective will it be: This all depends on how fast they are going up front. I honestly believe that Commisioner will not get sent to the lead no matter how slow they go.  If they get a slow pace, it will only make it tougher for Chrome to out kick Commissioner, so if you’re a fan of this horse hope for 3/4ths in 1:12 and 3 so that Commissioner has something to run at.

Wicked Strong:

His plan of attack: Despite all the misfortune in the derby, Rajiv Maragh is high on this horse and he has reason to be, the horse will get the distance. Maragh knows that this horse could be another Birdstone, so don’t be shocked to see him take Wicked Strong 12-15 lengths off the pace early and make the one sustained run he knows this horse is capable of making. I have said time and again that Wicked Strong’s breeding screams distance and I still stand by that. Espinoza knows that this is one horse that will give Chrome and him all they can handle. If Chrome wants to be a Triple Crown champion, he better be able to get that last quarter in 26 seconds flat; anything less will not be good enough to hold off Wicked Strong.

How effective will it be:  So,  Rajiv wants to pull a Birdstone. Well, the reason Smarty lost to Birdstone was due to the fact he ran a terrible race strategically speaking. He was on the bit from the moment the race started and ran the first 10 furlongs in 2:00.5 seconds! Hopefully Chrome will do no such thing. If Rajiv and Wicked Strong want to win this, they will have to just outkick Chrome the old fashioned way.

General A Rod:

His plan of attack: Speed! Kill them with tactical speed. He’ll try to lull everyone into a deep sleep and steal the race in the final quarter of a mile. If the first six furlongs go any faster than 1:13.0 he doesn’t stand a chance.

How effective will it be:  Surprisingly, speed can carry at Belmont. There has been a bit of a speed bias at the track and most of these jockey’s aren’t the type to push horses they already know cannot get the distance in the first place. I don’t see General A Rod as the winner, but he’s one of the more intriguing prospects in the field. Ultimately, Chrome will not go down without a fight. How you play this race depends on how fast you think they’ll go early on. The key to remember is that these four horses all have what it takes to win.

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