Around and around we go.  As some of you already know, I was really excited about the Rebel this past Saturday. The two heavyweights Strong Mandate and Tapiture had a rematch and the score was finally going to be settled. Well, Hoppertunity wound up stealing the show and winning the Rebel, but I still got a few of the answers that I was looking for.

There is too much parity this year:

This year’s derby can be won by ten different horses; so don’t be surprised if my derby top ten completely changes, as we get closer to the race. These three-year olds cannot string three brilliant races together. The best model of consistency is the Pioneer of the Nile sired Cairo Prince, but all indicators point to him being most effective at a mile. His dam was a sprinter and he always looks so tired after he crosses the wire. Tapiture looked solid in defeat and if he won, would’ve been the new “it” horse. While I definitely think he’s the most talented three year old in the country, he isn’t the type of horse who could win using his B game or C game. If he runs lights out he’ll win, but if he doesn’t he’ll probably finish mid pack.

These horses are slaves to the pace scenario

Remember when Bodemeister was let loose on the lead and I’ll have Another ran him down anyway? Well, there ain’t a single I’ll have Another in this bunch. The handicappers who love to base their handicapping on pace scenarios will be handsomely rewarded on Derby day. This will be one of those years where a ¾ of a mile in 1:10.5 will set it up for a stone cold closer unless there’s a speed bias; in that case you’ll probably see a horse wire the field. The bright side of all of this is that the best handicappers will be rewarded with a good price.

The last seven days of workouts make a difference

I know that they always do, but in years where there is this much parity getting your horse to peak on derby day becomes even more important. I could see a horse completely nail his final workout and go into the race with extreme confidence and win by five! This doesn’t mean he is a great horse, it just means he has a trainer who knows what he is doing. There is an art to getting your horse to peak at just the right time, some trainers have mastered this art and some haven’t.

This is a trainer’s race

If you go on our website, you already know that the trainer analytics (http://www.thoroughbredanalytics.com/racing-analytics/trainer-analytics) is one of its best features. I love looking for trainers who have a high TA trainer indicator in races at a mile or more on dirt. I wouldn’t throw out a horse just because his trainer has a poor TA indicator when it comes to dirt routes, but I would look at that particular horse a little more skeptically. This will probably be one of those years where an old master of the game winds up in the winner’s circle because he knew exactly how to get his horse to peak on the first Saturday in May.