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    The Handicapper’s Race at Prairie Meadows

    If you are a regular reader of my blog, you probably know how much I like marathon horse races. You also probably know that I check the condition book for them and smile ear to ear when I see them. Well, there is one scheduled at Prairie Meadows on the 9th. What makes this race even more unique is that it features seven horses that consistently run for a 5K price tag and rarely venture beyond a mile; this is truly the handicapper’s race.

    So, let’s start handicapping by process of elimination. On the basis of talent alone, Truetap, Noble Vision and Supercandy are the only three horses dangerous enough to stalk the pace and keep going. So, let’s focus our handicapping on these three horses.

    If I told you that there is a horse in this race who has won at 10 furlongs would you believe me? Supercandy is by Candy Ride out of a Woodman broodmare. This impeccable breeding shows in the fact that he handles distance pretty easily, but it doesn’t show in terms of his closing kick, which is non-existent. I think Supercandy can pass a bunch of tiring horses and take a piece of the purse, but the fact that he struggles to match strides with 7,500 claimers worries me a lot. If they go fast up front, Supercandy will take advantage and win going away. If the race is run according to plan, Supercandy will wind up second or third.

    Truetap is by Tapit out of a Wild Rush mare and has handled 8 and a half furlongs pretty well. He was probably entered in this race because he has the aptitude for distance but may lack the class. He is also the only horse in this race that regularly runs in Allowance Optional Claimers, so while he isn’t classy by New York or So Cal racing standards, he is clearly the classiest of this bunch. He seems like the obvious choice to win right? Well, here is the problem, he likes to sit five or six off the lead. In a race like this, sitting far off the lead is a problem, because a horses finishing kick diminishes the further out he runs from his optimal distance and when he runs on dirt as opposed to turf. This is why plodders have won the Belmont, but stalkers have won more often. He obviously has a shot to win. I wouldn’t be surprised if he proved me wrong, but there is one horse who I like a little more.

    Noble Vision is the one horse amongst the three who actually does have distance problems. He tired pretty badly in his second effort going a mile and seventy yards.  He needs a soft pace to stalk in order to win this; I’m banking on him getting it. If they go 3/4ths in 1:15.00 then there is no reason why he cant kick away from the leaders and take this race. If they go even slower than that, he could just wire the field. If he liked the distance half as much as Truetap, he would be a no brainer. How you play this horse is directly related to how you think the pace scenario will unfold. I think Noble Vision will be stalking pretty pedestrian fractions, which should keep him in the hunt turning for home.

    The Play:

    Noble Vision and Truetap are very tough to separate. I would make sure to play a win bet and place bet on Noble Vision but use both horses in my exactas and trifectas. Supercandy is very dangerous as well, but make sure that you get odds of 5-1 or better on him.

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    Breeding a Future Legend

    We are a society of wannabees.

    Guys want to be like Cristiano Ronaldo. Girls want to be like Kim Kardashian, unless said girl is from Portland, then she probably wants to be more like Mindy Kaling or Tina Fey.  Jockeys want to be horsemen and horsemen think they could make great jockeys. I am no different from any of these people. I have always been a wannabee horse breeder. I have always wanted to unleash my inner Federico Tesio and see what would happen. So, I will try to put together the five crosses that I think could produce the next great American racehorse.

    If you are an avid reader of this blog, you have probably figured out by now that this blog is the culmination of the previous two blog entries. I spent several weeks trying to figure out which sire has the best chance of siring a racehorse that could rival Frankel, Lure and even Secretariat. No matter how I sliced and diced the numbers, I kept coming back to one horse, War Front. He is as good as advertised; when trying to figure out how to build a champion, all roads inevitably lead back to him. So, rule number one is any great cross should have War Front on the top.

    War Front X Roy:

    I chose this one because the resulting foal would have Mr. Prospector on both sides of his pedigree as well as two strains of Nasrullah thanks to Roy. I’m not obsessed with nicking theories, but I do believe that War Front does his best work when paired up with sturdier broodmare sires and Roy can supply some sturdiness.  What really sold me on this pairing is that War Front usually supplies the speed and doesn’t interfere with stamina. Roy usually brings the stamina and rarely interferes with speed.

    War Front x Lord at War:

    I did not choose this mating for comedic purposes. I chose it because of the inbreeding to Hyperion. When breeding to War Front, it’s always a good idea to go away from Northern Dancer and towards Hyperian. The best part of this pairing is that most of the inbreeding is further back where it will be most effective. The second best part of this pairing is Ribot.

    War Front x Lemon Drop Kid

    Yes, I am trying to get away from Northern Dancer; no, it is not easy. I was going to initially choose Kingmambo, but that is too close to Northern Dancer, so I decided to choose his most exciting son. I honestly don’t believe that the next great racehorse will not be heavily inbred within the first four generations. Keeping Northern Dancer further back while introducing Buckpasser gives us some much needed stamina influence.

    War Front x Acatenango

    Do you see what I’m doing here? Once again, I’ve been able to get away from Northern Dancer while stocking up on Hyperion.  It is probably Hyperion’s influence that made Animal Kingdom one of the greatest horses of the decade. Inbreeding to Hyperion through his best sire influence-War Front and his best broodmare sire influence-Acatenango gets us four strains of Hyperion all buried far enough in his pedigree that no one would think to call this inbreeding-and maybe it isn’t who knows?

    War Front x A.P. Indy

    I’m going to be honest and say that I never thought this cross would work as well as it has. Without starting a flame war, the best War Front horse to date has been bred on this cross, and while you don’t see this cross too often, it never produces a bad runner. I’m not clever enough to figure why it works, I just know that it does. It is probably War Front’s best nick so hopefully it catches on.

    There you have it. These are the five crosses that I think will give us a fighting chance of ever producing something like a Secretariat, Frankel or Lure. Sure, I could’ve included sires other than War Front, but I didn’t even want to waste time pretending that there is another sire that could realistically deliver truly special horses on a regular basis. There is no cheesy sports analogy that could describe the ever-widening chasm between War Front and every other stallion on the market.

    Sure, the next great racehorse could come from Wiseman’s Ferry, but as a betting man, I’m doubling down on War Front.

    www.ThoroughbredAnalytics.com

     

    Who is the Best Sire in the Country Right Now?

    Let’s start this of with one simple question: Who is the best sire in the country right now?

    If you answered War Front, English Channel or Kitten’s Joy then you are someone I can talk racing with. Calling a horse the greatest sire in the country is pretty serious stuff, so I wanted to really look at the data and be as objective as possible before I threw out such a bold statement. When the numbers were finally crunched, it became pretty apparent who deserves to command the highest stud fee.

    Now, some of you may not be surprised by the data, which I am about to share, but most of you will. I looked at all turf stakes races in the U.S. and Canada, which were stakes races contested at 8 furlongs or longer. I then looked at the amount of total starts that sire’s progeny has made over the past five years to find the ratio of “Special Wins” to “Overall Starts”. A sire had to have at least 1500 starts over the past five years in the U.S. and Canada in order to be considered.

    The big takeaway: War Front is sickeningly good at being a sire. His ratio of one “special win” per 65.3 starts was good enough to put him in first place! His horses have tactical speed, but can also carry that speed better than I thought. English Channel, Dynaformer and Kitten’s Joy were also able to break the 100-start mark. Of course, with Dynaformer having passed away we won’t have many opportunities to capitalize on his greatness.

    table

    Now, here is where art and science merge to form true analysis. Stats aren’t everything-they can’t be. What stats are is a jumping off point. To truly understand anything about racing we must let our head start the journey and let our heart take us the rest of the way.

    The 100-start threshold The reason why I wanted to get my hands on this data so badly is because no sire can truly be great unless he can get one “special win” per 100 starts. This is the price of admission so to speak. If you cannot meet the 100-start threshold, there is no way on earth you can consider yourself an elite sire. So War Front, English Channel, Dynaformer and Kittens Joy are the only sires worthy of being in the discussion. Now, we use our hearts and our racing knowledge to truly figure out who is a cut above the rest.

    War Front: Some sires just give their offspring speed without taking away stamina. Bold Ruler was like that and War Front is like that as well. When he gets a broodmare who liked a distance of ground in her racing career he doesn’t interfere with that. He just ads his speed to the foal and lets the foal use the stamina his mama gave him. This is no better evidenced than with the great Declaration of War. He has the body and natural speed of a sprinter, but carries that speed incredibly well. How many horses can run a mile as well as Verrazano and come within half a length of winning the Breeder’s Cup Classic? The scary thing is War Front will most likely keep producing horses like this as long as he’s paired up with broodmares with a history of producing distance horses. My only hope is that more of his foals stay in the United States because I have a feeling the next Sunday Silence, Lure or Invasor will be from this guy.

    English Channel: I like him, I really do. The problem with English Channel is that even though it is early in his career, he seems to be what I would call a go with the flow sire. Basically, there are some sires whose offspring always turn out to be more like the dam rather than the sire. English Channel seems to be this type of horse. He’ll have a successful stud career because of the fact that he’s crossed with the best lines in the country, but I have a feeling that if I crossed him with a Minnesota bred claimer that I’d wind up with something that I could personally outrun myself.  He passed the 100-start threshold, but he’s the least talented of the four horses that did.

    Dynaformer:  Being that Dynaformer has passed away, I won’t wax philosophical about his greatness, I’ll just say that he was a champion and easily the second greatest stallion on this list. He will be missed.

    Kitten’s Joy: Kitten’s Joy is a beast. He actually had more “special wins” than any stallion on the list and unlike English Channel, can take mediocre broodmares and make them great. I don’t think we’ve seen his best foal yet, and I wouldn’t put a Breeder’s Cup Mile or Turf victory past him. I’m also surprised about how well he nicks with so many different mares. I really think you’re splitting hairs when comparing War Front, Dynaformer and Kitten’s Joy, but like Giovanni Boldini outran Bobby’s Kitten, War Front outruns Kitten’s Joy by just a little.

    In the end every single sire on this list is pretty spectacular, but in the end I had to go with War Front. He’s simply the most talented sire in America. He can get you a crack sprinter or a 12-furlong horse. He just takes the stamina the broodmare supplies and adds his lightening quick speed, and in the end those sires are the ones that have a lasting impact on the breed. I truly believe he has as good a chance of any of producing the next great American racehorse. Correction: In last week’s article I incorrectly stated that I looked back at the past ten years of information when I looked back at the past five years and ONLY counted Turf races at 8 furlongs or greater.

    NEWS:  As of this posting, Thoroughbred Analytics’ picks are SIX OUT OF SIX at Arlington Park!! Way to go TA!!

    www.thoroughbredanalytics.com

    The Best Broodmare Sires…Period!

    With the Saratoga/Del Mar meets coming up, I thought I would take a look at who the best turf broodmare sires are and see if there were any surprises. Well, let’s just say that there were no surprises in the top 10, but it was surprising how the top 10 actually stacked up.

    Here’s how I came up with the top ten:

    I looked at how many stakes wins a broodmare sire had on the turf in the last ten years. I took the top ten horses and then arranged them by the amount of stakes wins their progeny have had by the amount of stakes wins their progeny have made. The top ten may be the usual suspects, but some Broodmare sires are just too good to be true.

    Doc1 copy

    The one surprise to me was seeing Thunder Gulch take the nine spot. I’ve always thought of him as a dirt sire and broodmare sire and never really thought he was that great on turf let alone the ninth best turf broodmare sire. Of course, your attention has probably drifted to the top right hand corner of this chart, and who can blame you. This is not a misprint; Sadler’s Wells has a Stakes Wins/Starts ratio of 93.00. He is basically the Lebron James of broodmare sires. The fact that he is better than his American counterparts isn’t that surprising, it is more the fact of just how much better he is. Keep in mind that I chose these two numbers for a reason. The reason is that certain Broodmare sires have a great stakes wins to stakes starts ratio because owners only run the progeny if they prove themselves beyond a shadow of a doubt.

    Take California Chrome’s sire Lucky Pulpit. An owner isn’t going to take a chance with a horse by Lucky Pulpit if he hasn’t proven himself in some way shape or form. This is why Lucky Pulpit’s ratio of stakes wins to stakes starts is pretty good, but his ratio of stakes wins to overall starts is not as good.

    The next takeaway is Thunder Gulch. He clearly has had no problem holding his own as a broodmare sire over the years and is right behind Dynaformer and A.P. Indy. Think about this for a second, he is currently sitting behind the two most famous sires of all time. Dynaformer and A.P. do not even produce horses anymore, which means that provided all goes well Thunder Gulch will surpass them both. I would look for a few two-year old races with horses that have Thunder Gulch on the bottom and take a chance. I would highlight all ten of these sires, but Thunder Gulch is the only one who’s going to provide you with any value as the others have already been hyped as much as is humanly possible.

    The best situation for you as a handicapper is to find three year olds who are making their debut and have one of these sires on the bottom. If you see a bunch of horses stretching out in distance, feel free to give extra consideration to any horse that has one of these ten Broodmare Sires as his own.

    Next week I’ll discuss the other part of this equation; sires. I’ll talk about who the best sires are, whom they nick the best with, and when to play them.

    www.thoroughbredanalytics.com

    Handicapping The American Derby

    I’m a sucker for a good turf race. There’s something about turf horses that really catches my eye. The way they just glide over the ground unlike dirt horses is just more natural to be honest. Well, Arlington has a bunch of great turf races headlined by the American Derby.

    I’ll cut to the chase. I think they’ll run an honest pace in this one. I highly doubt Ghostly Wonder is going to sit back when his only chance to win is set in solid fractions and try to wire the entire field. I also think their may be some traffic in this race. So, basically this looks like every other graded stakes turf race. It’s going to come down to who can circle the field and kick clear to win it all.

    Why did Highball have to run as recently as June 14th? If it weren’t for the fact that I think he’ll only be at 80% strength, he would be my obvious choice. He is one of the few horses that you know can get the distance and maintain that closing kick. I drew a line through his debut because apparently he was giving trouble that day and clearly lost his race in the post parade. Highball looks like the class of this race, but since he’s wheeling back too soon we must look elsewhere.

    Giacallure catches my attention. He’s a horse stepping up in class and though 8.5 furlongs might be his optimum distance, he could possibly maintain some sort of kick to hang around. The other interesting thing about this horse is his breeding. His broodmare sire is the great Lure. This is pretty miraculous considering the fact I thought Lure was impotent. I’m pretty sure he was. Apparently, he sired a couple of good-looking fillies and decided it wasn’t for him. Anyway, if you like this horse, take a shot playing him in exactas and trifectas only.

    Speed usually kills, but not at Arlington on the turf. This is why I’m throwing out Ghostly Wonder. I look for him to get gobbled up like Spanish chestnut on Derby day way back when.

    This brings me to the two horses I think will come running like freight trains on Saturday; Afortable and Big Tom Prado. I love how easy it is for both of these horses to just relax and settle way off of an honest pace and then make one sustained run. I think this style works well anywhere including Arlington. So, what’s the difference between these two? One word: class.

    Afortable seemed like he belonged the last time he ran against graded stakes company wile Big Tom Prado is basically a classy 62K Allowance horse. I do believe that the cream rises to the top and that’s why I have to go with Afortable to kick clear and win the American Derby for Julien Leparoux.

    Next week will be fun as I talk about how I would go about breeding the next great American Turf horse. This is a topic I’m pretty passionate about so feel free to debate with me through e-mail or on twitter.

    Win: Afortable

    Place: Divine Oath

    Show: Big Tom Prado

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