Several weeks ago I spoke about which jockeys were most likely to bring in a logshot. Today, I talk about which trainers are most likely to bring in a longshot.
Though jockey handicapping and trainer handicapping are both important, an understanding of trainers is more beneficial to your growth as a handicapper. Trainers understand their horses in a way that the jockey simply cannot, and an understanding of trainer tendencies and patterns will yield better results than being a student of jockeys alone. We looked at the number of longshots a trainer saddled from January 1st 2014 to October 31st 2014. We only included trainers who saddled 20 longshots or more so as not to skew the results. The list is arranged based on the trainer’s TA Trainer Rating with longshots, not his overall TA Trainer rating. We also looked at each trainer’s Win, Place and Show ROI to give you some insight into how to incorporate each trainer in your handicapping.
The first thing I did was look for trainers that had enough wins so that I could effectively capitalize on any trends that I saw. I felt it was more beneficial to look for a trainer who could bring in multiple 12-1 horses as opposed to a trainer that brought in one 60-1 the entire year. I then looked at the Win ROI to make sure this trainer was getting some good prices. Of course, whose the first trainer who caught my eye? Marty Wolfson of course. Marty is easily the top trainer on this when looking at TA Trainer rating, longshot wins and the ROI he has with those longshots. The results seem to make sense considering that Marty seems to have an uncanny ability to improve horses by four to five speed figure points when assuming training duties from another trainer. His most famous example was when he took over the grade three horse Miesque’s Approval and won the Breeder’s Cup Mile with him. It’s nothing short of amazing that after all these years people do not overbet Marty Wolfson horses. Kathleen Demasi and Jimmy Jerkens are very similar to Marty Wolfson in that they can take a horse from another trainer and improve that horse’s current form by four to five speed figure points. So, lets focus our efforts on Marty Wolfson and Kathleen Demasi and try to play them when they are in races that they are most likely to win. In order to do this, we need their trainer profiles. I’m not going to embed their profiles in this article, but I will reference them and you can pull them up on your own by going to our site and clicking on trainer analytics distance/surface comparison.
There isn’t anything too outlandish that jumps out at me when looking at each trainer’s profile, but there are some things worth pointing out. In the 124 route races that Marty Wolfson has contested in the past 12 months, he has 26 wins, 17 places and 19 shows. Demasi has contested 86 routes over this same time period and has 9 wins, 15 places and 11 shows. I wasn’t born yesterday. I am well aware of the fact that Wolfson gets better route horses than Demasi, but it still doesn’t take away from the fact that Wolfson is just a phenomenal trainer when it comes to route races period. It also has to be said that Demasi is fairly competant regardless of the distance; causation vs causality is always a slippery slope.
In the end, you still need to use your judgement when interpreting the data. For instance, I put a ton of stock in Demasi’s ability to improve horses. I do not put too much stock in her record in route races because I am of the opinion that she gets some awful routers that even D. Wayne Lukas couldn’t help. I’ll continue to play the Demasi trainer switch angle till the public starts valuing her at the level that they should.
I’ll continue to bump up any horse that’s getting a trainer switch to Marty Wolfson as well. I’ll also look for horses that are switching over to Wolfson and going up in distance, as he has an excellent route race record. I’ll also play horses that have switched over to the Marty Wolfson barn and are coming off of a layoff. It seems that these horses recieve the biggest boost in performance.
Will Chrome Conquer the Turf?
No horse in recent memory has divided those who live east and west of the Mississippi more than California Chrome. Each race that Chrome enters carries more significance than it should because it is as though he is carrying the pride of an entire region on his undersized back. So, with the entry of California Chrome, the Hollywood Derby becomes the most important race of the week. With a win, not even the most critical east coast voter can deny California Chrome Horse of the Year; however, a loss pretty much seals Chrome’s fate as it provided ample ammunition for his critics to tout the accomplishments of turf specialist Main Sequence. Let’s look at the race and see if the diminutive California bred has a chance.
California Chrome is by the dirt/polytrack sire Lucky Pulpit. Though horses by Lucky Pulpit seem to perform best over dirt and polytrack, his prescense as a sire doesn’t mean doom and gloom when it comes to turf. I would rate his turf influence as neutral or a non-factor. The part of California Chrome’s pedigree that I would look closely at is his dam side, in particular his broodmare sire.
For reasons unknown to most of us, Chrome seems to take after his broodmare sire more than any other relative in his lineage. This means that if we’re looking to figure out whether or not he can handle turf, Not for Love is the best place to start. Not for Love’s most intriguing quality was that he didn’t have any preferences. He enjoyed distances from 6 furlongs all the way to 9 and a half furlongs, He enjoyed a fast dirt track, a sloppy track as well as a turf track; nothing really seemed to bother the son of Mr. Prospector. The progeny of Not for Love seem to have a preference for the dirt, but can handle turf without a problem.
California Chrome may also have inherited quite a bit from the 2nd dam sire:Polish Numbers. Of course, like most horses by Danzig, Polish Numbers went on to sire more graded stakes winners on turf than he did on dirt.
So, the bottom line is that I believe that California Chrome will not lose more than half a step going from dirt to turf. If he loses the Hollywood Derby, it will be because of the competition, in particular Lexie Lou.
Lexie Lou has shown an affinity for the turf as well as beating colts. Though the class of horses that she has faced at Woodbine aren’t nearly as good as the types of horses that California Chrome has beaten, she seems to relish 10 furlongs whereas Chrome seems to be most comfortable at 9 furlongs. It also doesn’t help Chrome’s chances that Lexie Lou seems to have taken a liking to Southern California and is in peak form.
The biggest obstacle standing in California Chrome’s way is Victor Espinoza. While Espinoza is a terrific jockey, he may not know exactly which adjustments to make in order to bring out Chrome’s best performance. He’ll have to save ground most of the way, but he’ll also have to swing outside of horses before the quarter pole. Though Espinoza is skilled, he is no Frankie Dettori or Jerry Bailey when it comes to turf riding.
The Play:
California Chrome will not disappoint in this spot. He’ll take to the turf just fine, and run valiantly against these foes. The problem is Lexie Lou will run just as well and probably get a better ride from her jockey, Corey Nakatani. The finish will be one for the ages, as Lexie Lou edges out California Chrome by the slimmest of margins.