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Ladies First at Pimlico

Pimloco’s Friday May 15th race card features the $250,000 Black-Eyed Susan for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 mile. Bob Baffert has the top pick with Luminance (Tale of the Cat). This filly was 2nd in the Santa Anita Oaks behind Stellar Wind; the morning line favorite in the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago at Churchill Downs,

Include Betty comes right back after an 8th place finish in the Kentucky Oaks, but got the win April 4th at Oaklawn in the $400,000 Fantasy Stakes. Keen Pauline has been showing up, but lacking the win but does get a top jockey for the race. Sweetgrass has won her last two races and gets a good rider. Ahh Chocolate is undefeated in two starts and Devine Aida won 4 in a row before last race finishing 4th.

This 9 horse field of The Black-Eyed Susan offers a great opportunity when wagering the Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness double as I find it hard to believe any horse in The Preakness can beat the 3 finishers in the Kentucky Derby; American Pharaoh, Dortmund and Firing Line.

Thoroughbred Analytics reports can provide additional valuable insight into the two fields of 3-year-olds.

A deep double (Black-Eyed Susan) with American Pharaoh, Dortmund, and Firing Line (Preakness) looks to me to be the closest thing to a sure, and potentially profitable bet for this weekend of racing.

Don’t overlook the Maryland icon, Ben’s Cat in the 9th and Stopchargingmaria in the 10th…. their best efforts win these two races.

Picking The Right Jockey

Top jockeys win races based on their riding skills and their ability to size up the competition and race their horse in a manner that will be most competitive against the other contenders. Trainers select jockeys in which they feel their horse gets the best chance of winning. As a handicapper, you too should select jockeys in which you feel will give you the best chance at winning.

Thoroughbred Analytics offers several customizable reports to help you pick the right jockey for your winning wager.

Thoroughbred Analytics Jockey Analytics Summary Report can be selected for a defined period of time and for a specific track to display all jockeys for those parameters and defines such valuable data as:

The number of races ridden, number of races won, number of races finished 2nd, number of races finished 3rd, and the total number of races ridden resulting in an in the money finish.

This report also presents jockey statistics by percentages; percentage of races won, percentage of 2nd place and 3rd place finishes and percentage of races resulting with in the money finishes.

Lastly, and most importantly, this Thoroughbred Analytics report presents Return On Investment (ROI). This data includes percentage Win ROI, percentage Place ROI, and percentage Show ROI. This data can help you cash for some big winnings.

Additional Thoroughbred Analytics Jockey reports available include Jockey Post Position Analysis, Post Position Comparison, Class Analysis and Class Analysis Comparison, Distance/Surface Analysis, Distance/Surface Comparison and Race History.

All about the Pace….’bout the Pace…and closing

The 141st running of the Kentucky Derby should prove to be one of the best in recent years. The field is full of talented and exciting three year olds from top tracks in California, Kentucky, and Dubai.

Several of the contenders have earned 100 Beyer Speed figures: Dortmund, American Pharaoh, Materiality, Firing Line, Frosted, Upstart, Tencendur and Bolo and should not be overlooked.

One must consider the running style of these Derby hopefuls, particularly with a 20 horse field. Here are the running styles of the field:

Pacesetters: Dortmund, American Pharaoh, Materiality, Stanford (scratched), Ocho Ocho Ocho

Stalkers: Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Frosted, Mubtaahij, El Kabeir, Upstart, Itsaknockout, Danzig Moon, Tencendur, Mr. Z, Bolo

Closers: International Star, Far Right, War Story, Keen Ice, Frammento

I see the pacesetters making a strong early start and being the 1st grouping to the 1st turn (Dortmund, Materiality, Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Mubtaahij, El Kabeir), American Pharoah’s 18 post position may keep him off the pace initially.

Of concern in a large field such as this is not getting blocked in traffic, so getting a decent early position will be on many of these jockey’s minds.

Also keep in mind these horses that rate high for finishing in the money in their previous races. Dortmund, American Pharaoh, Mubtaahij, El Kabeir, Firing Line, Itsaknockout, International Star, War Story.

Thoroughbred Analytics Premium Past performances for May 2nd’s Kentucky Derby are now available, as well as Jockey and Trainer Analytic reports.

Make Derby Day Your Payday

The wonderful thing about wagering on horse racing is that, unlike casino wagering in which the house wins only when you lose, horse race wagering involves betting against other bettors. The track gets its percentage regardless of whether you win or lose and as such has no incentive to see you lose.

So in that horse race wagering involves wagering against other bettors the best shot is to find horses that are presented at better value than their odds would indicate. This is done by careful analysis of a multitude of factors such as the type of race, race distance, race surface, and most importantly the horses that comprise the field for the race.

Today we have much greater access to a vast array of data to assist in the analysis of the contenders in the races; we have access to race replays, as well as the standard past performances and a multitude of professional analysts. Processing this available data is highly beneficial but can be time consuming and complex, however an ideal aid to wade through this information can be found in the reports offered by Thoroughbred Analytics.

Thoroughbred Analytics reports cater to every level of handicapper and provide every aspect of performance that a handicapper could want.

The upcoming Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks are some of the biggest days for wagering on horses races in America. Exotic wagers and multi-race wagers can reward the astute bettor handsomely. 2014 Kentucky Derby $2 exacta paid $340.00, $2 trifecta paid $3,424,60, $2 superfecta paid $15,383.80.

Get familiar with the full Thoroughbred Analytics offerings prior to the 1st Saturday in May and spend less time on analysis and more time enjoying the races and cashing winning tickets.

The Allen Jerkens

Allen Jerkens earned his nickname the “giant killer”. He took down the favorites that everyone thought were invincible. He understood that getting your horse to peak on the very day of the race meant that you had a shot at the win even if your horse was five lengths inferior. So, it is only fitting that the race at Gulstream Park named in his honor be a battle of wits and “hyper-peaking” between some of the best trainers our sport has.

Let’s face it, no North American horse wants to go 16 panels. So, the question becomes which horse has been conditioned over the last ninety days to tolerate it the best?

At first glance, Buck Benny looks like a tired horse who would be better off being used as a rabbit for Tattenham. Upon further inspection, Tattenham will probably be the one Motion uses to keep the field honest and Buck Benny will probably sit four or five off the lead. Though Buck Benny has run recently, I think that was really Graham Motion trying to get in a paid workout for Buck so that he can handle this race. Now, there is no need to be pedigree obsessed when we know for a fact that Buck doesn’t want any part of twelve furlongs, but he is bred on the same cross as Barbaro. Overall, I would say he has an excellent shot if he gets first run on the leader.

Class always seems to carry on turf. A horse can run fourth or fifth in grade three races constantly and somehow spank a horse who routinely wins allowance races. The reason for that is many and nuanced, but a large part of it probably has to do with the fact that turf races are very visually deceiving and final 3 furlong times are not posted in major racing publications. This is why Unitarian is even more impressive than he already looks. We know that Pletcher; who happens to be an incredibly underrated turf route trainer, will have him ready. When you add to this the immense gulf in class, it’s hard to make a case for any other horse other than Buck Benny to have a shot to beat him.

The Play: Why try to decide between these two when you can play an exacta box. I would also play a win bet on both of these horses to cover my bases. Anything can happen, but Buck Benny and Unitarian are the class of this race.