Before the digital era, handicapping thoroughbred horse racing was an art more than a science, a blend of past performances and gut intuition that could only be gained through years of observation and experience. Even with all of that dedication, few handicappers ever made a profit. For many people, the sport has not changed at all following the invention of the Internet. Others, however, have recognized the vast potential to be found in an online database with results from nearly every modern race ever run.
Horse racing statistics alone cannot be used to predict the outcome of a race. There are so many variables that affect finish order, including acts of random chance, that can rob a favorite and send a longshot to victory. The whole point of an odds system is that the same race, run one hundred times, will show many different results. Statistics are not a guarantee. Instead, they look at how similar races ended and, when integrated into a handicapping system, provide an odds-line based on historical evidence.
The questions that influence the efficacy of a handicapping program are which statistics to use, how many and from where. There are the big considerations, like how many maidens win their debut, and then there are the smaller ones, such as how closers are faring over Santa Anita’s new track surface. It’s best to have separate programs, each geared toward a different surface or track. Some of the most common statistics used are the win, place and show percentages of favorites, second favorites and so on; performances of horses rising or dropping in class; Lasix usage; individual trainers and jockeys; and pedigree performance. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of numbers to measure and catalog.
The hardest part of using horse racing stats in handicapping is gathering them and compiling them into an accurate program. Many online horse racing services have extensive archives, including past performances, but translating that information for your own use is a time-consuming process. This is why most profitable players focus on only a few tracks: They have a narrow enough scope to create a specific, functional model. It’s also why many handicappers choose to buy established software rather than create their own.
Don’t forget to give other handicapping considerations weight. A computer can’t know that a horse was badly blocked in its last race, but you can by doing your homework. Always double check before putting down money, and don’t bet the farm before you are seeing profitability. Even if you are managing a positive return on investment, keep experimenting and tweaking to improve your performance. With the right data and a well-crafted handicapping program, you can transform hundreds or even thousands of numbers into meaningful and profitable information.
Do Horse Racing Handicapping Tools Give you a Betting Advantage?
Every serious horse player is always looking for more horse information that will give him or her the edge that can be the difference between winning and loser. Most people who go to the racetrack will buy a program, study the Racing Form or a tip sheet, and then make a wager. Having access to this information is helpful, but, it certainly does not guarantee that you will win.
The overwhelming majority of race fans wind up leaving the track with less money than they had when they arrived. Favorites only win about once in every three races. Making it even more difficult to win are the exotic bets like trifectas and pick four wagers.
Even the most veteran of gamblers can have a difficult time trying to pick the ponies. It can be incredibly challenging to narrow down a large field of evenly matched claimers down to just one or two horses. How do you pick the winner in a race full of first time starters? Part of the intrigue and attraction of the King of Sports is the process of wading through all of the data and choosing what horse information matters the most.
Handicapping is not an exact science. It is much more of an art. One handicapper might choose to analyze a race based entirely on speed figures. Another might take into account the class of the horse or the jockey and trainer winning percentage. There are literally thousands of statistics that can be analyzed.
Horse racing analytics can make it easier to analyze the wide universe of data. There are a number of services that do this type of work and then package it in a form that is easy to read and understand. Some software packages provide proprietary information based on formulas and algorithms. Without computers, it would be impossible to analyze all of the data and make such highly educated picks based on past performances.
Racing enthusiasts can use a horserace handicapping tool to access information and interpret data. Today, there are even apps you can download on your smartphone that will give you an edge at the track. Imagine going to Belmont or Churchill Downs and, instead of rifling through the Racing Form, you pull out your iPhone, touch the screen and get all the information you need to make a bet.
Technology touches our lives in so many ways. The racing community is no exception. While many old-timers are hesitant to try the newest handicapping tools, younger race fans are quick to adapt the latest technology. Who can say for sure whether the 60 year old horse player with a crumpled up Racing Form is better at picking winners than the 25 year old newcomer who has the advantage of a horse racing handicapping tool.