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    Why horseracing isn’t a mainstream sport

    When I was a kid, ESPN still covered racing. Not just the Derby but the derby preps, Travers, Swaps, Pacific Classic and pretty much any other big race you could think of. I didn’t grow up in the golden age of horse racing. I grew up in the era of Hansel, Holy Bull and Tabasco Cat. Of these horses only one; Holy Bull, is listed as one of the 100 greatest racehorses of all time, yet they all kept racing on ESPN and in the spotlight.

    So, what did they do that ESPN liked so much?

    All three of those horses raced frequently and performed consistently. They all campaigned in their two year old season and three year old season and combined for 46 starts during that time. Each horse was in training for approximately 18 months, giving them an average of 10.2 starts per year!

    This allowed fans to get to know the horses and understand the rivalries. We didn’t have to play the guessing games that we have to play today. Holy Bull and Tabasco Cat ran against one another in both the Derby and the Travers. Will Orb and Oxbow meet again in the midsummer derby? They might, but it’s a toss up, whereas in the early 90’s it was a forgone conclusion.

    This leaves ESPN in a precarious position. They want to televise great races like the Travers, but they know that no one besides die-hard racing fans will care. Last years Travers marked a new low. The race was a thrilling dead-heat, but unfortunately it was a dead-heat between two horses more suited for allowance races than the greatest non-triple crown race in the country. In fact, if 2012 played true to the form of the 80’s and early 90’s, I’ll have Another would have been healthy throughout the year and been in the Travers. Of course, his path to the winners circle would’ve been difficult because Dullahan and Bodemeister would’ve been there as well. Unfortunately, none of these horses could weather the demands of a triple crown campaign.

    If all three horses ran in the major summer races for three year olds, the internet would’ve been buzzing. Three champions duking it out at the graveyard of favorites! Espn would televise it because they wanted to, rather than televising it simply because of a desire to be impartial and televise all American sports.

    I don’t have to go into why I’ll have Another wasn’t there. The modern thoroughbred cannot give 100 percent over three races in a span of seven weeks and not come away with tendinitis. Some will say it’s the breeding practices while others will say it’s the training methods. I suspect that the way we train horses at the age of two may be the primary factor, but the truth is no one really knows. What we do know is that human nature being what it is if you incentivize a behavior more people will adopt said behavior. This is why we need to reward consistent thoroughbreds above all else.

    I propose that we implement one simple rule: In order to be in the running for an Eclipse award a horse must have competed in at least nine starts that year, unless the horse is a juvenile and in that case the horse must have competed in five starts. Each grade one will be assigned points, and the horse with the most points who also meets the minimum start requirements is crowned the champion.

    Think of how great this would be. Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Bernardini, Big Brown, Summer Bird – they would all have to give their eclipse awards back. Basically, every horse from the last decade would have to give his or her award back except for Curlin, and that is how it should be.

    I long for the days when watercooler discussion about racing is as ubiquitous as basketball and football, but I know that will never happen without sturdier animals who can compete consistently.

    I’m sure that ESPN is rooting for our sport, but at some point we have to actually give them something and someone to root for.

    The Best Horse Racing Tracks in America

    I haven’t been to every racetrack in America, but I have been to enough to know the good ones from the great ones. Some tracks deliver a good experience for the money, but certain tracks cater to everyone from the fans to the horsemen, and by doing so truly become cathedrals of horse racing.

    So, what are my criteria?

    The most important factor in my book is the track’s main turf course. Any track that doesn’t have a great turf course has no respect for the history of the game and can still earn a spot on my list, but not a very high one.

    The second most important factor is how knowledgeable the fan-base is. I have no problem with people who are learning the game, in fact one of my favorite things to do is introduce new people to the sport. What I do have a problem with are people who come to the track to make fun of the things that give our sport character; such as jockey silks. Yes certain owner’s such as Mary Lou Whitney, choose eccentric silks for her stable, you are not the first person to notice this and you will most certainly not be the last.

    The third criteria is the quality of racing. There is nothing more exciting than graded stakes races.

    My top ten are:

    10.Canterbury Park: These fans do not have a lot of high-class horses to look forward to, but they don’t let that stop them from having fun. One guy I met wagered on a gray horse every single time and wound up losing $200 dollars, but still told me he had the time of his life. Our sport needs more people like the folks at Canterbury. The food is also pretty good, though I will say the turf course could use some work and the track lacks big sweeping turns, which can give it the feel of a bush track.

    9.Colonial Downs: I would call Colonial Downs’ Secretariat Turf Course breathtaking but that might actually be selling it short. The nations widest turf course is host to some of the best turf races in the nation including the Colonial Turf Cup. The fanbase is incredibly knowledgable and friendly, so I was tempted to place this course higher, but I do believe that Colonial Downs needs to lure even more turf superstars in order to gain a higher spot in these rankings.

    8.Gulfstream Park: I don’t think there is a better place to train an up and coming three-year old than this South Florida Track. The Florida Derby is easily the most influential prep race, and has produced more Derby winners than any other prep in the modern era. However, this track made the list because it’s a beautiful track that has enough history to feel important, but makes enough renovations so that it doesn’t feel outdated.

    7. Keeneland: People in Kentucky like their horse racing and it shows. Keenland is one of the few places where you’ll find college kids who can actually read the program and understand exactly what it’s telling them. In addition to this, many of the greatest personalities in racing make this their home track, which only adds to the mystique. The only negative is that the overall architecture of the track can occasionally lead to extreme track biases thus making it a pain to handicap e races. Overall the atmosphere at this track is too strong to keep Keeneland off this list.

    6. Santa Anita:You can’t argue the importance of a track that has produced Best Pal, John Henry and Sunday Silence. This is where great horses come to prove themselves. The horses race to the wire with the San Gabriel mountains in the backdrop which lends a sweeping feeling to the proceedings that few tracks can compete with. The turf course is cut to look like a putting green which only adds to the beauty of this southern Californian gem.

    5. Arlington Park: John Henry, Star of Cozzene and Gio Ponti have all competed in and won the Arlington Million, so even though this track features more twenty thousand dollar claimers than I would care for, it also hosts one of the most important races all year. The turf course is arguably on the same level as Colonial Downs’, but the biggest thing this track has going for it is that they really cater to the casual fan during the summer meet. Young fans thirsty for knowledge talking to grizzled veterans eager to impart whatever knowledge they have: this is hopefully the future of horse racing.

    4. Belmont Park: Lets get away from turf racing to talk about “Big Sandy” this mile and a half dirt course humbled Kent Desormeaux, Stewart Elliot and Gary Stevens in grand fashion. This is one of the toughest courses to ride and if you haven’t ridden it at least a hundred times you will be punished. To ride at Belmont is to go into the belly of the beast so to speak. The fans know they have something special, and they are truly proud. As far as the racing quality, it is probably the best in the nation. There is Super Saturday, the Mother Goose, the Met Mile and of course the Belmont Stakes. This is why putting Belmont in fourth was such a tough decision.

    3. Del Mar: This is Disneyland for racing fans! From the time you enter the gates you know you are part of something special. I visited Del Mar last year for the Eddie Read and had the time of my life. Getting to see Jockey’s like “P-Val” Joel Rosario and Mike Smith was truly amazing. You can stay near the area where the horses are paddocked right before the race and watch Bob Baffert give Martin Garcia directions only to hear Martin go “I know, just win!” just priceless.

    2. Churchill Downs: If you were to take a person of the street and show them pictures of various racetracks there is only one they would be able to recognize-Churchill Downs. The twin spires are iconic and for that reason alone deserve the runner up spot. Sure, the quality of racing other than the derby isn’t the best, and there are more visually impressive tracks, but do any of those tracks capture the imagination of the average sports fan? I’m afraid not.

    1. Saratoga: The top spot has to go to the one track that has it all. A turf course that is managed with painstaking detail, unbelievably great racing day after day, and the most knowledgeable fans I have ever seen in my life. There may be more die-hard racing fans in Saratoga Springs than anywhere else in the country. This creates an atmosphere similar to Yankee stadium during the World Series or The Coliseum during a major bowl game. I never experienced what racing was like back when it was front page news, but Saratoga, with its old-school picturesque setting and its knowledgeable fan base, gives me a pretty good glimpse into what the glory days of racing must have felt like. If you want to show someone the best of what our sport has to offer, take them to Saratoga on Travers Day.

    Jockey Analysis 101

    I recently stumbled upon a livechat featuring Jerry Bailey and it got me thinking about the roles Jockeys play in the outcome of a race, and the art of jockey handicapping in general.

    At this summer’s Belmont Stakes meet Junior Alvarado and Javier Castellano are battling it out for the riding title. They both have a 23% win percentage.

    In what other sport can you crack open a bottle of champagne and celebrate attaining your profession’s highest honor though you have only been successful 23 percent of the time? So, on any given 9 race card the best jockey is still probably going to win 23% of the races on the card- a whopping two races!

    This is not to say throw out jockey handicapping altogether, this is to say understand its limitations as well as what it can do for you.

    There are two factors only that affect a jockey’s ability to ride-the surface and the horse’s running style. There are two surfaces and four primary running styles for a total of eight types of riding situations a jockey can find himself in. A jockey can ride a frontrunner, stalker, closer or a deep closer and he can do this on dirt or turf (we will pretend polytrack doesn’t exist for now).

    So, let’s look at the maestro himself; Garret Gomez. Garret has a 18.38 win percentage on turf and 17.62 on the dirt which makes him pretty adept at both surfaces. If I had to make a jockey’s chart for Garret Gomez it would look something like this:

    Needless to say, I wouldn’t hesitate playing a horse because Gomez was riding, but I should also note that I wouldn’t play a horse simply because Gomez was riding either. Now lets say that Garret Gomez was on the second best horse according to the TA Indicator and the best horse according to the TA indicator was ridden by Dean Butler. Though some of you are going to be completely surprised to hear this, Dean Butler’s turf and dirt numbers are almost identical! Here is how my jockey chart for Dean would look like:

    I would go with Dean in most circumstances, but would seriously consider Gomez if he were on a stalker and Dean was riding a deep closer. In this circumstance I do think that Garret could steal the race away from Dean.

    The main argument that I am trying to make is that I would use the TA indicator as well as my gut instincts about the horse’s abilities to make my decision, but my tie-breaker would be the jockey if it were a special scenario. It has also been my observation that jockeys do not struggle with distances or track conditions, but rather with surfaces and running styles. Patrick Valenzuela was great at sprints because frontrunners are also great sprinters, but if they were great routers he would’ve won a bunch of routes as well. His biggest win was going a mile and a quarter in the Kentucky Derby, and it was on a little black colt with lots of early speed. Valenzuela was never average; but if there was a situation were he looked less than spectacular, it was with deep closers. This means that if he were riding a deep closer, then that horse would have to have the best TA indicator in order for me to play it.

    It is important to remember that the best jockeys will win 2 out of 9 races; the key is figuring out which two races they are going to win. The answer to that is usually the two races where the surface and the horse’s running style play to the jockey’s strengths.

    The Belmont Stakes is here and needless to say I am excited.

    From Sarava to Birdstone to Da’Tara the Belmont Stakes has always provided huge paydays, and it’s for one reason and one reason alone, the conditions of the race itself are the ultimate anomaly.

    When will these horses ever run on “Big Sandy” again?
    When will these horses run in a field of 14 horses?
    When will these horses see 12 furlongs (a mile and a half) again?

    This is why I believe horseplayers always get the Belmont Stakes wrong. They play the race like an allowance non winners of two going a mile when they should play the race for what it is: a bona fide grade one going a mile and a half; it is truly the test of champions and the last great American horse race.

    The question you should now be asking yourself is how do I play the race the way it should be played?

    I used Thoroughbred Analytics’ proprietary model to handicap the race and here’s what I came up with.

    The biggest metric in my opinion is Lengths gained.

    You have to pass a lot of tired horses to win the Belmont, and though horses do win this race gate to wire, more often than not the winning jockey sees the backside of eight to ten horses on his way to claiming victory. There are three horses that our model has shown to be strong in this metric. The first is Revolutionary he has done most of his running  from off the pace and has demonstrated the ability to make up a considerable amount of ground. This is important because it shows that he is not getting tired. Anything can happen on Saturday but I would feel safest putting my money on a horse that wants to go the distance and Revolutionary is that horse. The second horse is Orb. I always thought Orb and Revolutionary were such similar horses that if they didn’t look different, I wouldn’t be able to pick them apart. Now this is where the model comes in handy, Revolutionary scored an 86.80 while Orb scored an 86.20. This means that though they are similar, Revolutionary is slightly more likely to pass a tired horse in the stretch and could have the edge over Orb in the Belmont. The third horse is a longshot who deserves some serious attention. Unlimited Budget scored an 85.60 which reassures me that she has the closing kick necessary to steal this race away from the boys. Like I said before, this is a different type of race and you have to think differently in order to handicap it. Revolutionary, Orb and Unlimited Budget have passed the test in what is the most important metric.

    The second biggest metric is speed. Secretariat needed speed, Point Given needed speed and the eventual 2013 Belmont winner will need to have some tactical speed so he or she can be in the mix by the time the horses get to the three-eighths pole. Look at it this way, the race is longer than any other in America, but it’s still not a five mile steeplechase race where the horses will be trotting for two whole minutes before the real running starts,
    so some speed is critical. Speed only stops mattering after approximately three
    miles.  The highest scorer is Vyjack. He scored an impressive 90.27 which makes sense considering that he is probably the most naturally talented horse in the race. Think of him like Smarty Jones: A miler who can carry that speed. I’m glad the model gave credit where credit is due because I was pleased with how he chased a solid pace in the Gotham and
    still finished in 1:44 flat. He has Julien Leparoux in the irons, so expect him to relax a little more this time out; also, if you draw a line through his Kentucky Derby which is reasonable considering the slop and the trip, he’s a pretty consistent horse. Second was Incognito but I don’t really like him and luckily neither does the model as he is ranked tenth overall. Third was Revolutionary.

    The third thing that many handicappers overlook is that it’s a Jockey’s race! I honestly believe that if you are a jockey, winning the Belmont should be your ultimate goal. There is no other race where the jockey has so many opportunities to mess things up for his or her horse. So, what does our trusty model have to say about these jockeys; Unlimited Budget seems to be the biggest beneficiary when it comes to having a pilot. Unlimited
    Budget     will be piloted by Rosie Napravnik who scored a staggering 100.63 rating. Even though she hasn’t won a Triple Crown race, she has won the Oaks and she’s easily in the conversation for best jockey in the country, and she is somewhat familiar with Belmont. Orb came in second because he has Joel Rosario in the irons and Joel has seemed to channel his inner Willie Shoemaker as of late. Joel will not move Orb prematurely. Obviously, Johnny Velasquez is loyal to a fault when it comes to Todd Pletcher and that is
    why he will be riding Overanalyze. I’m pretty sure Todd pulled Johnny aside and said “which one you want?” and Johnny choses this fine thoroughbred specimen.

    So who do I recommend? I would go with either Revolutionary or Vyjack. Both horses rated strongly across all metrics and they both have the necessary turn of foot to do well on Saturday. If you’re looking for a price, Vyjack will be much higher than Revolutionary, but they both have an excellent shot at winning this race. Unlimited
    Budget     is also a great play, though I would use her for trifectas more than anything else. The beauty of Thoroughbred Analytics’ TA indicator is that it allows us to go less with our gut and more with an objective view of how good these horses are in the areas that actually matter. I’m sure some of you thought Orb was a shoe-in, and I liked him too, but when I
    realized that Revolutionary was gutsier down the stretch and that Vyjack is naturally faster, I realized that Orb is too risky a pick at too short a price.

    The model got me to take a closer look at Vyjack and I’m starting to realize that he’s got too much natural speed and too good of a running style to be any lower than 10-1. The Derby was a fluke. He didn’t like the crowd and he didn’t like the trip he got. I’m sure he’ll run much faster this time around. Revolutionary is a horse that is consistent and easily got the distance in the Derby. He probably shouldn’t have been on the rail as it was playing a little slow that day, so his third is actually better than it looked!

    Notice that I have yet to mention Golden Soul. This is because he finished 11th out of all 14 horses in TA indicator, and didn’t finish in the top three in any of my Key Metrics. He
    seems to be this year’s money vortex. Each year there is a horse in the Belmont that takes all of the “stupid money” he seems to be that horse for this year’s Belmont- who knows though. What I do know is that using the TA indicator and the Thoroughbred Analytics’ model has given me more confidence in playing Revolutionary and given me a reason to use the seriously underrated Vyjack in all exotics and trifectas and maybe even a small win bet.

    I am not saying that my picks are guaranteed to win, and if you play them and lose, I will most certainly not pay you a dime- I’m pretty cheap. However, I do think that Revolutionary and Vyjack are worth a closer look, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of them in the winner’s circle.

    Profiting with Handicapping Analytics for Horses

    Becoming a good handicapper can take years of following the horses. You must watch thousands to understand the intricacies that go into determining which horse has the best chance of winning a particular race. Most horse racing enthusiasts, who horse handicap, wind up losing thousands of dollars based on inaccurate or incomplete analysis of all the available data.

    One way to overcome poor handicapping is to use handicapping analytics to evaluate a race. Using this advanced type of analysis, it is possible to combine the most important factors that go into determining the outcome of a given race.

    Formulas assign different weight or importance to such factors as speed, class, condition and pace. They go much more in depth than most handicappers who do their analysis with the charts in the Daily Racing Form. Using the power of computer generated analytics to handicap horse races allows other, more obscure data, such as track variants, detailed trainer records and bloodlines, to be added to the mix of data.

    While it is great to have so much data available for analysis that, by itself, will not necessarily lead to better predictability of the outcome of a race. Tools, that are designed to give you an edge while wagering on the horses, are only as good as the choice of data that it is programmed to analyze. Does it really matter that a jockey weighs 112 pounds or 113 pounds when he or she is sitting on the back of a 1,200 pound horse?

    Horse racing fans, that like to make more than an occasional wager, are always intrigued by any extra knowledge that might give them an edge when placing a bet. They sometimes act on a hot tip from a friend of a friend and may even sign up for a betting service,  or they may buy one a tip sheet and base their wager on a so-called expert’s recommendations.

    Instead of having to flip through all of those pages of the Form and get ink all over your hands, you can access the same data on your smartphone or other electronic device. While the old timers are busy trying to figure out which horse and what bet to make before the starting gate opens, you can have your mind made up in plenty of time to make a bet and grab a hot dog and a drink.

    As is true with most products that are for sale, some handicap analytic systems are better than others. Prices range widely and the best performing systems are not always the most expensive ones. The best advice for anyone considering the purchase of such a system is to try it out for a month or two before committing to a long-term contractual arrangement. If it works, great. If not, try another.

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