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    Beware of the Bounce

    For some of the more astute handicappers, this article will not teach you anything that you already know; however, if you are an intermediate level handicapper or below then you will need to pay close attention because what I have to say will benefit you greatly.

    Strategic Manuever in the Frizette, Bellamy Road in the Kentucky Derby, Big Brown in the Belmont are all famous examples of horses who bounced. The problem for handicappers is that horses bounce all the time at tracks all over the country and other than the most astute handicappers; no one picks up on this.

    There are basically five rules that are to be taken into consideration when trying to figure out whether or not a horse will bounce.

    The metrics and calculation criteria do not have to be deployed in order, but they absolutely must be deployed to the last amount rather than the whole amount. Failure to do so will result in a calculation error.

    Has a horse made two significant jumps in its speed rating?

    Though the reasons are unclear, horses can make two significant jumps in speed rating, but rarely ever a third. Yes, Secretariat did it, but he was a freak of nature and the average horse at Canterbury Park or Turf Paradise cannot imitate him. If a horse has made two significant jumps in his speed rating, I usually take his TA indicator and subtract 10%. For example, if a two jump horse has a TA indicator of 100.00 his adjusted TA indicator is 90.00

    Is the horse overraced?

    If the horse has run in the last twenty days, it is over raced, and 5% needs to be subtracted from its TA indicator. So, using the horse in our previous example, he started out at 100.00 then went to 90.00 and is now at 85.50.

    Is this a sprint race?

    If this is a sprint race and the horse is a two jump horse, then you must subtract another 5% from his TA indicator. So, using this same fictional horse, he is now at 81.225.

    Is this horse a pure frontrunner?

    If the horse is a pure frontrunner and he has made two speed jumps, I can assure you he must be pretty tired. Go ahead and subtract 7% from his TA indicator. So, our fictional horse is now down to a TA indicator of 75.54, and is about to fall once more.

    Is the horse six years or older?

    If the horse is Six years or older and he has made two jumps in speed, subtract 10% from his TA indicator. So, our poor fictional horse, who started out with a TA indicator of 100.00, is now at 67.99.

    The TA indicator has shaved so much time off of my handicapping. I can look at a simple number and get an incredibly accurate picture of how good a horse really is. If I looked at nothing but this number and played cold exactas I would still make money, but putting context to the TA indicator really takes a handicapper to the next level.

    Applying the “bounce metrics” that I have created allows me to account for the anomalies in racing that one has to be aware of in order to succeed. If I can take the time out to apply the “bounce metric” the TA indicator will do all of the heavy lifting and pick up on the things that I cannot accurately measure such as lengths gained and horses passed. I cannot tell you how important the lengths gained metric is, especially when evaluating turf horses stretching out, but all metrics become more powerful when you apply some context to them.

    So, the next time you see a horse who has jumped twice in its speed rating, apply the “bounce metrics” to get a more accurate picture of the horse’s TA indicator and you might catch a 30-1 longshot and avoid being part of the “dumb money” that makes odds on favorites out of horses who wind up as also-rans.

    Data Driven Training and Handicapping- the Belichick method

    I wish I knew someone who trained thoroughbreds. If I knew someone who trained thoroughbreds, I could probably increase his win percentage by 5 percent easily,  (with all due respect to female trainers, I will use “his” for ease of use). Now, you might ask yourself, how on earth could a racing blogger help a trainer increase the win percentage? The answer lies in where horse racing is and where it needs to be heading.

    If racing were compared to traditional sports, trainers would be the head coaches. Well, I’ve noticed one peculiarity in how horse racing works differently than traditional sports and it’s not a good one; horse racing conditioning is completely void of analytics!

    In every other sport, the coaching is done using equal parts analytics and gut instinct-as it should be. Bill Belichick is an ardent follower of this philosophy. He studies statistical analysis of playcalling as it relates to downs and distance then seamlessly melds that knowledge with his own intuition, and the results have been the creation of the most over-acheiving team in the history of the National Football League.

    So, how can trainers learn from Belichick?

    Every horse is an individual, but after 150 years or so, certain patterns have emerged. There are ideal times to bring your horse back after a layoff. There are training patterns that can be used to get your horse to peak at the right time. There is even geo-spatial (location based) data that can tell you which tracks are most likely to cause injury to your horse and which tracks will cause your horse to be stronger if he trains over them.

    Imagine the type of advantage a trainer would have if he used both analytics as well as gut instinct. All of a sudden, all his horses would be running in the right spots. Fewer of his horses would be injured. He could even measure his horses feed to figure out their nutritional state.

    Now, I know for a fact that trainers have a good eye and can figure out all the things I measured using a pencil and a notebook, and still get it right 70% of the time. If they incorporated analytics, they would probably get it right 95% of the time; which last I checked, is even better than 70%. Going back to football, Norv Turner- a more traditional coach called a pretty good game. I would say his calls made sense 70% of the time, but Belichick almost always called the right play, and that is why the Patriots have been more successful than the Chargers even though they have the same level of talent. You simply need every advantage you can get your hands on, and analytics seems to be one of the last remaining advantages.

    Like football, racing is a game of inches. If you could use analytics to make your horse one length faster, imagine how many third and fourth place finishes would turn into wins or close second place finishes. The advantages are even greater considering that most old-school trainers hate data. They seem to think that numbers are a plague upon humanity and analytics is its evil spawn.

    With many trainers in charge of 30-40 horses, mistakes in training, feeding and race selecting are bound to be made. The trainer who uses software to help him keep track of feeding schedules, and analyze training practices as well as the condition book is bound to make less mistakes than his counterparts.

    I am proud to be part of an organization that understands how data-driven handicapping should be. I have used Thoroughbred Analytics to give me that slight edge when handicapping, and I am a more consistent and profitable handicapper because of it.
    Do I simply pick a horse based on its TA indicator? I do no such thing; but I do combine my years of racetrack experience with the TA indicator to give me an edge over the competition. In other words, I pull a “Belichick” and combine intuition with analytics to compete at a higher level than I ever thought possible. With so many handicappers picking horses based on nothing more than hunches, the handicapper that uses data is at a huge advantage, and the handicapper that combines data and intuition is incredibly tough to beat.

    Maybe a middle of the pack trainer will use this article as motivation to give his intuition a solid data-driven foundation and win the training title at his track. Maybe, a young handicapper will use data to win a handicapping tournament against a bunch of grizzled veterans, one can only hope.

    The last great betting race

    I give up!

    I remember a time when horses that should’ve been morning line favorites went off at 20-1 and anyone who could halfway read past performances could clean up considerably at the track. I’m afraid that those days are long gone. The betting public is more sophisticated than ever before. This means that bettors are valuing horses as they should and longshot winners are truly unexpected.

    Though my evidence is purely anecdotal, I’m sure most handicappers who have a keen eye and have been around the game long enough would agree with me. I remember when Thunder Gulch won the Kentucky Derby at 24-1, I was surprised. I wasn’t necessarily surprised that he had won, rather I was surprised that he was 24-1. I mean he had won the first two preps with only minimal effort and the third was a loss on the most speed biased dirt course ever-Keenland! If the derby had taken place this year, Thunder Gulch would have gone off at 7-1 or something close to that.

    So, if the betting public is incredibly savvy, how do we as handicappers turn a profit? We need to bet the only two races in America where we as handicappers have a distinct advantage- turf routes and dirt routes. There are so many sprint races that the average person knows how to see the trends in these races and handicap them accordingly, but they do not see the trends in route races. I love using the Thoroughbred Analytics algorithm on anything longer than a mile and a sixteenth because more often than not they pick up on things that I do not, and as a result give me a distinct advantage. I then like to combine the algorithm with my own sire analysis to yield an even clearer picture of how the race is likely to finish. If the TA indicator on a longshot in a sprint is extremely favorable, then I’ll play the sprint because that usually works out well too, but my bread and butter is route races.

    For example, if we have a race going a mile and a quarter, I would pay close attention to the lengths gained as well as TA indicators and isolate the three best horses using these two metrics; I would then use these three horses in a variety of exactas and across the board bets. In the event that the TA indicators and lengths gained metrics are close, I would use sire data as the tie breaker. It has to be noted that over the past five years, the horses who have sired the most graded stakes winners going routes in order are: Giant’s Causeway, Dynaformer, A.P. Indy, Distorted Humor and Smart Strike. Of course Dynaformer is deceased, but the other four are sire monsters and I would always give consideration to any of their foals. This information mainly applies to a fast track because we all know how some horses come alive on the mud- Bertrando anyone?

    Being a great handicapper ultimately comes down to discipline. You have to know when you have a decided advantage over your competition and when you do not. Just like how Pat Day knew he owned route races so do you. So why don’t you try this out; however many races you play per week, play an equal number of sprints and routes. Primarily use the TA indicator and the lengths gained for routes, and the TA indicator and speed rating for sprints. At the end of the week, see if you made more money on the sprints or the routes, the results may surprise you.

    Del Mar vs The Graveyard of Favorites

    Just like how birds migrate south for the summer, casual racing fans flock to the Del Mar and Saratoga meets. It’s a welcome change of pace having bettors who can barely read the form mingle with people who can wax philosophical about whether Cordero was better than Pincay. It’s a time for horse racing to wind back the hands of time to an age where fans had style and panache. Though I have been to Saratoga more than I’ve been to Del Mar, I have been thoroughly impressed with both, and here are some of the reasons why.

    The first time I went to Del Mar I knew I was in the big leagues. I was wearing a white button down and a fedora, my girlfriend did her best to channel Sophia Loren and still we were not in the top 25% of fashionably dressed people. California’s finest descend on the San Diego suburb to look at eye candy as much as horseflesh. The surprising thing is most of them learn quite a bit about horses along the way. Personally, any place where you can see supermodel caliber women one minute and rub elbows with Bob Baffert the next is truly a magical place in my book.

    If Del Mar is a place where you feel like part of the scene, Saratoga is a place where you feel like racing royalty. The minute you set foot on the “graveyard of favorites” you are overwhelmed by the history of it all. As I have mentioned in previous blogs, this is the be all end all of thoroughbred racing. You can smell the history of this place. The secluded upstate New York town knows they hold a special place in racing and are very proud of it. This is not to say that racegoers at Saratoga are not glamourous , it’s just to say that racing comes first at the track where Onion took down the great Secretariat, and Fourstardave cemented his place as a legend. There are no distractions at Saratoga, it’s you and the horses.

    I know I’ve made it sound like Del Mar is a racing backwater but that couldn’t be further from the truth.  The Pacific Classic and Eddie Read have been attracting the best horses in the country for quite some time. In an era when the best horses rarely meet one another, the likely matchup between Game On Dude and Dullahan will probably be the most anticipated matchup of the year provided it actually happens. I know that I’ll have my attention on Del Mar as it will be where one of personal favorites-Paynter will make his official return to stakes racing. It’s safe to say that Del Mar’s racing is top notch.

    Saratoga will be where America’s new favorite horse, Wise Dan, will be headed. The chestnut gelding will most likely contest Fourstardave again, and it will be an honor to watch a living legend in person. Like I’ve said before, it’s amazing the kind of access you have to superstar horses and jockeys at Saratoga. Of course the highlight will be the Travers. The Derby, Preakness and Belmont winners all plan to duke it out, and the winner should be able to lock up the Eclipse Award. Of course, it is the graveyard of favorites so for all we know a horse we have never heard of could come and steal the race, but that just adds to the mystique of the cathedral of thoroughbred racing.

    Now my favorite part of these meets is seeing who will win the jockey title. In this arena, Del Mar has a hug edge because the best jockeys in the country are going to be based at Del Mar this year. Ever since Jerry Bailey retired Garrett Gomez is the closest thing we have to a true tactician. Unfortunately, he isn’t going to have the type of mounts necessary to win the riding title this year, so I’ll play it safe and go with Bejarano, who in my opinion is the best gate jock in the country right now. Also, look for Mike Smith to pull off some huge wins before the meet is over.

    As far as Saratoga is concerned, Joel Rosario will probably battle it out with Javier Castellano. At the risk of starting a flame war, it shouldn’t be this way. Though Castellano is a great jock, he is not in the same class as Joel Rosario and should not be riding the same caliber of horse. I truly believe that if Rosario rides the same quality of tack as Castellano does, he will run away with the title. What I actually think will happen is that Javier will ride plenty of favorites and Joel will ride plenty of second choices, but will steal enough races from Javier to keep things interesting-and Johnny V and Pletcher will swoop in and in all the races that actually count because, well, they’re Johnny V and Pletcher and that is what they do.

    This is the true highlight of the racing season because it’s not about the horses; it’s about the horses, the jockey’s the atmosphere and a thousand other things. It’s the one time of the year you can take your ignorant friends who think tendinitis is the same thing as laminitis to the races and know that these racing ignorant friends of yours will actually have a good time. So enjoy, it’ll be over before you know it.

    Breeding Secretariat

    I spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about things that don’t really matter, and last Friday night was one of those times. A friend of mine was at Border’s and asked me if I saw the Secretariat movie. I told him that sadly I did, and that it was the type of movie that I would have loved if I were 10 years old and didn’t think of Unfaithful every time I saw Diane Lane.

    Then that’s when it happened, I started to think about what it would be like to be a breeder. It doesn’t seem like the most interesting profession. I definitely wouldn’t call it glamorous as I can’t remember the last time there was a celebrity breeder. Who is the Bob Baffert of breeding anyway? Of course, my mind continued to wander, and I thought about how one would go about breeding the next Secretariat.

    Now when I say the next Secretariat, am I talking about a horse that is genetically similar to, or similar in racing ability. Well, I happen to think that those are one in the same. I think that if you were to breed a horse similar to the way that Secretariat was bred, you would get a horse that could run similar to the way “Big Red” ran.

    So, how was Secretariat bred?

    I am no Sid Fernando, so please excuse me if I don’t explain his breeding as well as it can be explained. Secretariat was a complete outcross with a miler for a father and a mother who never ran, but if she had, she would probably have been most comfortable at a mile and a half. It should also be noted that many believe she passed down her “large heart” gene; and thus, was the sole stamina influence in Secretariat’s pedigree. So let’s get on with it. Let’s try to breed the new Secretariat!

    First we’ll start by picking a broodmare sire rather than a particular broodmare since that obviously gives us a better shot at completing this monumental task. The broodmare sire has to be a horse who’s daughters can pass down a great deal of stamina. Remember, Secretariat got his stamina from his mother, rather than his father.

    Sadler’s Wells would be my pick. He is consistently atop the broodmare sire lists, which is considerably impressive since he sires a decent amount of ten furlong horses. This also gives us the chance to go with an American sire since Sadler’s Wells’ broodmares (daughters) will be an outcross for most American sires, and we’re going to produce outcrosses since that is what Secretariat was. Another reason why I like this choice is because the two best horses of recent memory-Big Brown and Invasor both have foreign broodmare sires.

    So, now that we know who the broodmare sire will be, we need to figure out who the sire will be.

    This is where my head and heart start to do battle. My head is telling me to go with a high profile sire, but my heart knows that these broodmares would probably do better with a lower profile sire. These broodmares would be best suited to a sire who had the speed of a miler, but could carry that speed through classic distances. It is also best if this horse has little to no inbreeding to the broodmares in question considering once again that Secretariat was a complete outcross. Throughout my research of how Secretariat was bred, one potential sire kept coming to mind again and again, and his name is Bodemeister.

    Now, I know that Bodemeister/Sadler’s Wells is a cross that has been used before through Empire Maker and has not produced horses that are sprouting wings and winning everything in sight. The point of this article is to suggest the BEST cross. The cross that if used repeatedly would give us the best chance of producing the next Secretariat. Of course, horse racing is equal parts art and science – that’s why we love it. This cross isn’t going to yield 100% stakes winners and revolutionize racing as we know it. What this cross will do is produce many horses who have the turn of foot and stamina necessary to win at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter. If you look at the best horses of the past twenty years, you will see three common factors amongst them.

    One, they are the product of a miler and a true distance horse. This has proven to be the ultimate feast or famine breeding strategy. It usually produces horses who can’t do much of anything, but also produces horses that truly possess greatness. Big Brown was the perfect example; he seemed to inherit Boundary’s effortless speed with the staying power of Nureyev and Northern Dancer. In other words, when it comes to breeding you can have the best of both worlds.

    Two, they have low dosage indexes. Though the dosage index isn’t the greatest tool in the world, it does provide some insight into whether or not a horse will be able to get the distance. The dosage index of most horses who go on to win at a mile and a quarter is usually somewhat low, which shows that though it may not be the best tool, it certainly has some use.

    Three, the inbreeding occurs in the fifth generation or there is none at all. One of the biggest accomplishments of pedigree research in the last 25 years has been putting to bed the myth that heavy inbreeding is healthy. If you have the time and the patience, I challenge you to put together a list of the ten horses you truly think are the greatest of the last fifty years. I can almost guarantee you that no more than one of them will have inbreeding within his first four generations. What is most remarkable about this is that most Kentucky breds (basically the horses that sell the most at auctions) are heavily inbred. Thus proving that inbreeding heavily within the first four generations may actually be a detriment to the horse. Many broodmares who have been deemed to be terrible producers when inbred have seemed to come alive when outcrossed and vice versa.

    Bodemeister would also give the horse the speed to compete as a two-year old should prospective owners not have the patience to let the horse mature, and with second place finishes in the Derby and Preakness, combined with his headstrong nature, he reminds me of a young Bold Ruler.

    If America is to see another Triple Crown winner, U.S. Breeders are going to have to breed with a lot of character and creativity, being motivated by auction sales isn’t going to get us anywhere. I am not naive to think that a Bodemeister/Sadler’s Wells cross will fetch very much at auction, but I am naive enough to think that there are enough breeders out there who are passionate enough about our sport to try out the types of crosses that have the most potential to give us that Triple Crown champion that we’ve been looking for.

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