I have long been a believer in the Warren Buffett school of gambling – bet only what you understand. I grew up around big name tracks, followed them more and understand them quite well. This is the main reason why you’ll rarely ever see me betting the non-winners of two, Golden Gate or Turf Paradise. Well, there is a change in the wind. With the takeout increase at Churchill Downs I am scaling back on big name tracks and ready to diversify.

In the beginning I’ll be at a disadvantage. I really have no clue how speed plays at Turf Paradise and whether or not Beulah Park has its own Johnny Velasquez. What I do know is that 50% of my handicapping can be automated. The first 50% of handicapping a horse race is looking at the TA Indicator and projecting the pace. Once I have done that, I’ve already narrowed down the three or four best horses and now I look for angles that tell me what the play is going to be. I admit, there is so much to gain from just being around certain tracks and knowing the tendencies of various trainers. I cannot stress how important handicapping trainers truly is. I do not know any of the trainers at Beulah Park. I think Lukas went there once, but I can’t be certain.

I look for horses with long odds and high TA Indicators. This is where the real handicapping starts. 75% of these horses are the real deal. The other 25% have accidentally “gamed” the algorithm and it is your job through research to decide which ones are which. The advantage of handicapping the big name tracks is knowing the people you are betting on. I know if there is a speed horse in a seven furlong race with Bejarano riding and a good TA indicator I should give that horse a look no matter what. I also know to disregard the TA Indicator if a horse is being trained by a trainer on a losing streak who happens to be pretty good.

Handicapping is 50% art and 50% science. The science can be automated through the software and we can provide the art. With all of this said, handicapping the little tracks is not the mount rushmore of handicapping it once was and we should all take advantage of that.