You need a little bit of luck in order to win the run for the roses. If you told a horseplayer this, he would look at you like you have two heads for this is the most obvious statement ever uttered. Where one can gain value from this is the specifics. When one says luck, what does she really mean? Are there certain factors that are so much of an advantage that a claimer could win if afforded these benefits? It turns out that there may be two things that give a horse a sizeable advantage over the competition. Take a look at the chart below.

I would say that 12, 14 and 17 not having winners is a case of statistical randomness. Just because you flip a coin four times doesn’t mean you’ll get heads twice. The way to interpret this chart is by breaking post positions in to groups of four and then treating the percentages as a raw number, then adding them up.

Look what happens:

The place to be is post positions 5 through 8- they yield a decent advantage. 13 through 16 are the only ones that present a significant obstacle. In fact, as the years progress and the sample size grows, I wouldn’t be surprise to see this group yield even fewer winners. Let’s be honest, in a field of twenty thoroughbreds, the amount of craft a jockey would have to display in order to avoid trouble from these post positions is really enough to make Shoemaker blush. The 17 through 20 group confirms what I already believed, it’s a great place for closers and a bad but not terrible place for speed horses.

Once again, the sample size isn’t as great as it needs to be, but big enough that trends are emerging and the data can point us in the right direction. I am still waiting for the TA Indicators of the Derby contenders in order to make my selection, but special consideration will be given to any horse breaking from 5 through 8.

The second advantage is training in a high elevation. Horses have two types of blood cells; rigid and balloon. The balloon red blood cells are great because they are able to carry oxygen with extreme efficiency. Many American horses don’t seem to be born with enough balloon cells in order to get ten furlongs. The great thing about elevation training is that your rigid and balloon red blood cells increase. The effects last for about a month, though I am not sure as to the rate in which the decrease happens. Let’s assume that the decrease happens at a constant rate. Now, let’s say we have a fictional horse named Wicked Fast (I don’t have the best imagination). Wicked Fast has been training at an altitude of 5,000 feet and now has double the rigid and balloon red blood cells of his competitors. Even if he loses 25% of what he has on the ride over to Churchill Downs, he still has 75% more than his rivals. These advantages seem overstated, but keep in mind the elevation of most American tracks.

The advantage of training at Sunland and to a lesser extent Oaklawn are pretty significant. Of course, this is an advantage that most trainers throw away by bringning their horses too early, but what if they didn’t? Imagine training a horse at Sunland and shipping him 5 days before the race. He would have a significntly higher amount of red blood cells-rigid and balloon- than his competitors. Now, some will say why doesn’t the Sunland Derby winner dominate the Kentucky Derby. The answer is simple; the winner is usually talentless! Imagine if you took a talented horse and trained him in that New Mexico air. The other factor is we aren’t sure if the relationship between elevation and increase of red blood cells is linear or exponential. If it is exponential, then the difference between training at the Fair Grounds or Santa Anita isn’t that great, but training at Oaklawn vs Sunland makes all the difference in the world because at that point each extra foot of elevation is creating so much more red blood cells.

There are plenty of question marks, but most will agree that horses who train in high elevations have consistently outrun their pedigree when shipping to Churchill Downs. With all of the drastic and bordeline illegal practices certain trainers have taken in order to get an edge, why not take an advantage that is greater than all the rest and most importantly legal?

http://www.thoroughbredanalytics.com/