With the Kentucky Derby approaching, I feel that it is time to cut to the chase and share my opinion of the main contenders in the Derby and what their chances truly are. The way I usually handicap races is by making an initial assessment of the field and then taking a look at the TA indicators of each horse once they have been released. What this means is that my selections are subject to change based on any trends that the algorithm may uncover.

CALIFORNIA CHROME

Why he’ll win: This is a horse that really doesn’t like to lose. He loves sitting off the pace and kicking away from the field. If this race were at a mile and an eighth this would be a foregone conclusion. He is easily the most talented horse during the prep season and probably will not bounce as much as the so called experts suggest he will.

Why he’ll lose: This race will be the opposite of what the brave Cal bred likes to see. A mile and a quarter just isn’t his distance. The other problem is that it looks like the race will be run in ¾ in 1:10 2/5, and that isn’t something that Chrome will deal with very well. He will have a huge target on his back and will be carrying the hopes of an entire state, which sounds like a huge undertaking to me.

VICAR’S IN TROUBLE

Why he’ll win: He won’t.

Why he’ll lose: Oh boy, where do I begin? Too many horses want the lead. If Vicar’s gets the lead he becomes a dangerous horse. He has shown the ability to get the lead and hold off Grade 3 horses masquerading as Grade 1 horses, but true Grade 1 horses like Hoppertunity and California Chrome will wrestle the lead from him at some point. There is an off chance he can make the superfecta.

DANCE WITH FATE

Why he’ll win: The race sets up for him perfectly. He has no problem settling 12 lengths off the pace being covered by horses. He has tactical speed and has very little trouble getting the distance. Very few horses can quicken as well as he can. This race plays against what most of these horses like to do, yet plays toward Dance’s strengths. Though he is more lethal on turf/polytrack he will handle dirt well.

Why he’ll lose: He is one of the slower horses in the race, regardless of what any of the speed figure guys would have you believe. Very similar to a young Giacomo, but without a speed duel how effective would Giacomo have been in the Derby?

WICKED STRONG

Why he’ll win: The feel good story of this year’s derby is more than just a cuddly human interest story. This horse is by a router out of a router. He will fight for every single yard and will not give up. He also has one of the best jockeys in the business so he will be placed exactly where he needs to be. As far as bouncing is concerned, I don’t see it. He seems like he came out of the race just fine and should run back the exact same race as his Wood Memorial. I like his chances very much.

Why he’ll lose: His win in the Wood was his first win since October 26^th! That win was his maiden. He doesn’t have a history of winning, but he has a history of running in regular races and the derby is closer to a war.

SAMRAAT

Why he’ll win: He has 5 wins and one second. He is the most consistent horse we have seen all year. The screws probably weren’t tightened enough in the Wood, but they will be in the Derby

Why he’ll lose: He didn’t seem to want more than a mile and an eighth. He also doesn’t seem to be more talented than Wicked Strong and though he has a great running style, he just can’t outkick great horses.

DANZA

Why he’ll win: From Who’s the Boss to the highly underrated Don Jon, anything Tony Danza touches turns to gold. The same can be said for Todd Pletcher. The horse also seems to want the distance more than most of these other horses.

Why he’ll lose: He simply seems like a talented horse who just ran his biggest race. I see him regressing by about four speed figure points and that should be enough to keep him out of the winner’s circle. If you didn’t show up to the wedding what is the point in showing up to the funeral?

HOPPERTUNITY

Why he’ll win: Timing is everything and the son of Any Given Saturday just gets stronger and stronger with every race. Considering that he barely trained for the Santa Anita Derby, his second place finish was remarkable! While his pedigree isn’t on the same level as Wicked Strong’s it happens to be more than enough to get the distance. He also won’t have a target on his back due to his running style and the fact that he is the Rodney Dangerfield of horses.

Why he’ll lose: Ever since the great Apollo, no horse who did not race as a two-year old has won the Derby. Apollo won the Derby in 1882…

INTENSE HOLIDAY

Why he’ll win: He is trained by Todd Pletcher and with all the parity in the race this year trainers matter.

Why he’ll lose: He isn’t fast enough.

WILDCAT RED

Why he’ll win: He has a ton of talent. Constitution is one of the better three year olds and he needed everything to hold of this speedy colt.

Why he’ll lose: The pace will be too much for him to handle. He is one of those horses that probably won’t deal with the pressure of the Derby very well and veer off track in the stretch.

WE MISS ARTIE

Why he’ll win: He has the talent of a young Da Hoss or Nijinsky’s Gold. Truly a remarkable turf horse.

Why he’ll lose: This race is on dirt.

RIDE ON CURLIN

Why he’ll win: He is by Curlin and has the demeanor to deal with the pressure of the Derby. He has gone toe to toe with some of the best and done well.

Why he’ll lose: The derby isn’t usually won by horses who have a history of being also-rans. The Derby is usually won by horses who have won one or two of their three most recent starts.

CHITU

Why he’ll win: Has anybody realized that this horse has lost once in four starts? He is a pure stalker who will not be adversely affected by the pace of the Derby. He always runs a great race and has shown a desire to run further. He doesn’t train very hard, but that means that he doesn’t get tired between races. He is the Derby darkhorse with a trainer who knows how to win this race because he has been there before.

Why he’ll lose: Not since Mine that Bird has the winner of the Sunland Derby gone on to win the Run for the Roses.

TAPITURE

Why he’ll win: He is just as talented as California Chrome but twice as inconsistent. If the good Tapiture shows up how can he lose? He knows how to settle behind fast fractions. He knows how to get a distance of ground. He knows how to beat great horses.

Why he’ll lose: I feel like the real Hoppertunity showed up to the Rebel and he lost to Hoppertunity. If he didn’t beat Hoppertunity then I doubt he will beat him now as Hoppertunity is only getting better.

RING WEEKEND

Why he’ll win: When Graham Motion wants to get a horse ready, he gets that horse ready. Ring Weekend will run through the bridle on the first Saturday in May.

Why he’ll lose: Even if you anticipate a four point increase over his most recent speed figures, he still doesn’t finish better than third. Mr. Motion may be bringing a horse that is just lacking in the talent department.

GENERAL A ROD

Why he’ll win: He will not.

Why he’ll lose: There are better horses in the race.

MEDAL COUNT

Why he’ll win: He will come running down the stretch like a freight train and will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of a pace breakdown. He is a one run horse who knows it, so he won’t be tweaking anything just for the Derby and could be a shocker.

Why he’ll lose: Every positive thing I have said about him applies to Dance with Fate times ten.

CANDY BOY

Why he’ll win: He has shown signs of brilliance in the past. He beat Chitu and that counts for something.

Why he’ll lose: The distance may challenge him and there are more talented horses in this race. Even if he moves forward off of the Santa Anita Derby, so will Hoppertunity.

UNCLE SIGH

Why he’ll win: He runs the occasional brilliant race.

Why he’ll lose: He hasn’t passed Samraat as yet, and there is a small chance that he’ll actually start now.

VINCEREMOS

Why he’ll win: He has a great running style.

Why he’ll lose: It isn’t enough to sit in 14^th or 15^th in the early stages of the race. You must pass horses at some point and he hasn’t shown a propensity for passing quality horses.

HARRY’S HOLIDAY

Why he’ll win: Are you seriously thinking of playing Harry’s Holiday? You should be ashamed of yourself!

Why he’ll lose: This isn’t his distance and isn’t his surface.

COMMANDING CURVE

Why he’ll win: He has no problem sitting way off of the pace and making one sustained run which is the only way horses without the necessary talent have a shot at winning races like this.

Why he’ll lose: There are better one run horses in this race.