There’s something poetic about racing. There are so many stories to tell and things to discover. The game teaches us about ourselves and through this distinguishes itself from most other sports. In an earlier blog, I pointed out that the family of Betty Derr may be resurrecting itself to reclaim its place amongst racing’s elite families. I also mentioned that California Chrome and Bayern may be very underrated from a pedigree standpoint if this is true. Well, after watching the Kentucky Derby unfold I am almost certain that we are witnessing a rebirth. So, let’s get into my Preakness selections, though I think you have an idea who I am picking.

The Preakness has long had a history of favoring tactical speed. If we were to take the last five runnings of the race and map them by running style it would look like the chart below:

The stalkers have captured this race three out of the last five times and the frontrunners have captured it twice. Honestly, I do not see things changing. Please do not pick a closer or deep closer to win this race. You will be burning money if you do this. Even if the first ¾ goes in 1:10 flat, I still see a stalker holding on for the win.

The Place spot is a tough one because it is less influenced by running style, or that is how it seems. The deep closer at the bottom of the chart was the very underrated Mine that Bird who at the time was at the peak of his powers. If there was a Wicked Strong or Danza in this race I would choose them, but there isn’t, so I’ll pass. Let’s play a frontrunner or stalker here as well.

Show is really won by the best remaining horse, so feel free to do as I will and play the best remaining horse.

How I see the Race

This is California Chrome’s race to lose. He won’t get the pace that he wants, but should be able to rate 4 off the lead and mount his bid when he gets to the top of the stretch. The question here is will the horse who gets the lead get brave on the lead and fight back. The second question is who will be the horse to take the lead.

The suspects

Pablo del Monte needs the lead. He does his best racing on the lead and doesn’t show any desire to have dirt kicked in his face- he could be Verrazano’s brother and in fact is closely related to him, but I digress. The reason why I don’t think Pablo Del Monte goes to the lead is belief. I don’t believe that Sanchez and Ward believe in him enough to employ such a risky strategy. I think they’ll try to rate and hang on for place or show.

Social Inclusion seems to do most of his best running on the lead as well. I think that they’ll send him on the lead but with the intention to back down if a speed duel develops. You might be asking why? Well, I don’t think he necessarily bounced in the Wood. I think he’s a mile and a sixteenth horse who is trying his best to stretch out and is having trouble doing so. They know he can steal this race if he gets an uncontested lead, but he can’t get the distance if he goes faster than ¾ in 1:10 and 2 and they know this.

Ring Weekend can benefit from having the lead. He’ll be sent to the lead if no one wants it, but he doesn’t have the raw speed to fight anyone for the lead. So, though I can see him getting the lead, it most likely isn’t going to happen for him.

General A Rod can run from almost anywhere. I really included him simply because Castellano is riding and we all know how aggressive he likes to ride. I could see Javier trying to steal this one on the lead, but he’s smart enough to back off if he senses a speeduel. I’ll handicap with the assumption that General A Rod will be extremely close to but not on the lead.

Bayern If he wants the lead he gets it. Given how much unnecessary flak Rosie Napravnik has taken for her ride aboard Vicar’s in Trouble, look for her to pull the reverse and send the great great great great grandson of Betty Derr to the lead. He could face resistance from General A Rod, but should be able to put him away pretty quickly. I’m handicapping with the assumption that they go ¾ in 1:10 and 2 and that may take its toll on the other frontrunners, but Bayern should be able to withstand this.

Ultimately, if this race goes anywhere close to how I think it’ll go I see California Chrome and Bayern putting on a show for the ages. Neither horse will want to give way and may do some serious damage to one another. If I have to choose, I’ll say that Chrome sticks his nose in front because he is the most talented three year old colt in the country and his distance relative the second most talented.