We often talk about training angles, jockey switches, speed figure analysis, how to adjust the TA Indicator to pick better long shots, but we never actually talk about what makes a handicapper great.

I have been around a ton of handicappers in my life and learned a lot from each of them. The thing I have taken away is that some are better than others and it’s because of four factors-three of which are mainly a function of personality. The four traits are non negotiable and are as central to being a great handicapper as bravery is to being a firefighter.

Great handicappers have no preconceived notions of anything

Did you pick California Chrome? Let’s be honest and say you probably didn’t. The funny thing is that if you didn’t know who his parents were, you probably would’ve picked him. Let’s break this down; in terms of natural talent, Hoppertunity was one of the best horses in this three-year old crop and Chrome made him look like an amateur. Chrome also had the only consistently high speed figures in the entire group – he was the logical pick, but we had all seen this story before and thought Chrome’s bargain basement breeding would catch up to him – well it didn’t

Great handicappers are neither optimists nor pessimists

This is where the cream starts to rise to the top. You must understand that most people truly are one or the other. There are very few people who wave the colors of neutrality when it comes to this crucial personality trait, but the great handicappers I know all do.  They take calculated risks, but they aren’t overly confident nor are they downtrodden for no apparent reason. The fact that they are neither optimists nor pessimists can be summed up in the types of plays they make.  If they are on a win streak and there is an evenly matched 14 horse race they will not play it. However, if they are on a win streak and there is a 14 horse race with a 10-1 shot who should be 4-1 they will play that race for sure. They don’t comply with the arbitrary rules of most pessimist handicappers and the pick 6 obsessions of optimistic handicappers. They are even keel.

Great handicappers are very intuitive

Let’s go back to the triple crown once more. Most of the great handicappers I know saw similarities between California Chrome and Sunday Silence. They picked up on his grittiness and heart. They saw that his tactical speed would translate and that he doesn’t have an Easy Goer to contend with. They know without knowing.

Great handicappers all wanted to be horseman

Okay this one sounds weird, but is the truest of them all. Every great handicapper secretly wants to be Nick Zito or Graham Motion. They love discussing workouts and are usually more well versed on the subject than the general handicapping population. It’s the art of getting a horse to the race that excites them the most. The betting is just part of the journey. They really shine when it comes to horses off of layoffs. They always seem to know whether the horse is being brought back as a tuneup and hence the current race is a throwaway, or if the horse is fully cranked up. They realize that workout times don’t matter and can tell how much effort each horse has put out. They have studied training patterns so well that they know what works for a particular type of distance and what doesn’t. When you talk to great handicappers, you see the race through the eyes of a horseman. The five horse has a limited worktab because he’s old and needs rest more than a 6 furlong bullet work. The four horse is working in company because he doesn’t have a sense of competitiveness and needs to develop one. Teuflesberg will beat Stormello because Teuflesberg is being taught how to rate and Stormello isn’t. You start to see what an advantage you would have in handicapping if you saw the race the way a Zito or a Motion does.

So, there you have it. These are the four things all those guys cleaning up have in common. You may think you have some of these traits, but I guarantee you that if you work on becoming well-versed in all of them you will have a positive ROI at the track.

I love talking about great handicappers, so feel free to shoot me an e-mail or a private message on Twitter if you want to discuss this further.

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