If you are a regular reader of my blog, you probably know how much I like marathon horse races. You also probably know that I check the condition book for them and smile ear to ear when I see them. Well, there is one scheduled at Prairie Meadows on the 9^th. What makes this race even more unique is that it features seven horses that consistently run for a 5K price tag and rarely venture beyond a mile; this is truly the handicapper’s race.

So, let’s start handicapping by process of elimination. On the basis of talent alone, Truetap, Noble Vision and Supercandy are the only three horses dangerous enough to stalk the pace and keep going. So, let’s focus our handicapping on these three horses.

If I told you that there is a horse in this race who has won at 10 furlongs would you believe me? Supercandy is by Candy Ride out of a Woodman broodmare. This impeccable breeding shows in the fact that he handles distance pretty easily, but it doesn’t show in terms of his closing kick, which is non-existent. I think Supercandy can pass a bunch of tiring horses and take a piece of the purse, but the fact that he struggles to match strides with 7,500 claimers worries me a lot. If they go fast up front, Supercandy will take advantage and win going away. If the race is run according to plan, Supercandy will wind up second or third.

Truetap is by Tapit out of a Wild Rush mare and has handled 8 and a half furlongs pretty well. He was probably entered in this race because he has the aptitude for distance but may lack the class. He is also the only horse in this race that regularly runs in Allowance Optional Claimers, so while he isn’t classy by New York or So Cal racing standards, he is clearly the classiest of this bunch. He seems like the obvious choice to win right? Well, here is the problem, he likes to sit five or six off the lead. In a race like this, sitting far off the lead is a problem, because a horses finishing kick diminishes the further out he runs from his optimal distance and when he runs on dirt as opposed to turf. This is why plodders have won the Belmont, but stalkers have won more often. He obviously has a shot to win. I wouldn’t be surprised if he proved me wrong, but there is one horse who I like a little more.

Noble Vision is the one horse amongst the three who actually does have distance problems. He tired pretty badly in his second effort going a mile and seventy yards.  He needs a soft pace to stalk in order to win this; I’m banking on him getting it. If they go 3/4ths in 1:15.00 then there is no reason why he cant kick away from the leaders and take this race. If they go even slower than that, he could just wire the field. If he liked the distance half as much as Truetap, he would be a no brainer. How you play this horse is directly related to how you think the pace scenario will unfold. I think Noble Vision will be stalking pretty pedestrian fractions, which should keep him in the hunt turning for home.

The Play:

Noble Vision and Truetap are very tough to separate. I would make sure to play a win bet and place bet on Noble Vision but use both horses in my exactas and trifectas. Supercandy is very dangerous as well, but make sure that you get odds of 5-1 or better on him.

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