It’s kind of funny when things come full circle. I recently had a debate with a few friends on twitter about whether or not the speed of the early leader determines the speed of the pack. They thought that it did. I said that it really depends on the horse and who his trainer is. A horse who was taught better will always understand the danger inherent in not running his own race.

In 2007, the most well-bred horse was Hard Spun. He really had what it took to go 12 furlongs and compete for at least one leg of the Triple Crown.  He was trained by Larry Jones; a man I have a lot of respect for, but sometimes the best trainers fall short when it comes to unleashing the full potential of their horses.

When I say that Hard Spun had the potential to get a mile and a half, I need to be more specific. What I am trying to say is that if he ran with the same level of calmness that the average router runs with he would have easily gotten the 12-furlong distance. The problem is that he was very headstrong and needed more long gallops. He needed to be taught that he was a router and not a sprinter. I believe that Jones did a decent job of teaching him, but guys like John Servis and Nick Zito have done remarkable jobs. When I look at workouts from Servis or Zito, I never look at times. These guys realize that the point of a workout is to teach your racehorse skills he or she does not know as yet. Like boxing, horse racing is deceptively complex. It appears as though a bunch of horses are running around an oval, when in reality much more is happening.

Smarty Jones was a pure miler who wound up winning the Kentucky Derby and almost winning the entire Triple Crown. I know most of you will challenge my assertion that he was a miler, but that just means you need to research his pedigree a lot better. His dam loved running a mile and his sire is notorious for producing milers. He is one of the most uniformly bred racehorses I have ever seen-milers all over his pedigree. What made Smarty go from good to great was that he loved to listen to his trainer. John Servis would alternate Smarty’s speed work with 2-mile gallops. The speed work wasn’t even anything flashy. He would usually instruct the rider to go slow in the first quarter and then let the horse speed up the rest of the way. The end result was a horse that would sit off of the pace and make his move when instructed to; in other words, a professional racehorse.

This year, horses like Tapiture, Wildcat Red and General a Rod have the potential to be the next Smarty Jones or the next Hard Spun. It is your job as a handicapper to analyze their workouts in the next 6 weeks to find out which path each of these horses will take.