Every now and again something happens in the world of thoroughbred racing and you are pretty much forced to comment on it. If you are a fan of racing- wait, scratch that, if you are a fan of the triple crown- wait, if you have a pulse you probably heard California Chrome’s owner Steve Coburn go on an angry tirade about how there will never be a Triple Crown winner if racing keeps allowing horses who did not compete in the Derby and Preakness to compete in the Belmont Stakes.

The racing world ripped Coburn to shreds. People in the racing business who I have never seen agree on anything agreed that Coburn was an embarrassment to the game. The interesting thing about the barrage of arrows people in the industry threw at him was the implication that what he said made absolutely no sense. While I do agree that his idea has some severe flaws, the interesting thing is that there are kernels of wisdom to his passionate and desperate plea for help from the racing establishment.

Thoroughbred Racing needs a feel good story

I don’t have to tell you that the average attendance at Thoroughbred racetracks in North America has fallen every single decade since the 70’s. I also don’t have to tell you that most people see this sport as some sick barbaric joke. So, didn’t you find it odd that 103,000 people attended? That is how much the Triple Crown resonates with America. There is something about the quest for greatness that we cannot get enough of. While a Triple Crown would not have saved the industry, it certainly would have provided a feel good story for the next few months.

The pace scenario will always go against the Triple Crown hopeful

I am a pretty great guy if I do say so myself, but even I would press a Triple Crown hopeful throughout a race in order to sabotage his chances. While there is nothing wrong with this practice, it does mean that the next horse that goes for the Triple Crown is incredibly vulnerable even if the horses he is racing against are tired themselves, and if they are not; well that brings us to our next point.

Great trainers know how to get horses to peak

This is the point that I think Coburn really was trying to make, but couldn’t find the words. While most people lament the decline of the American thoroughbred, what they are really getting at is the American thoroughbred can no longer reproduce his best speed figure.  Look at most stakes winners and their best speed figures in a given year. Look at how much their best effort usually is when compared to any other effort that year. More importantly, look at horses that have run in all three legs of the Triple Crown.  The standard deviation for all three Triple Crown races Monarchos ran was 5.69, the standard deviation for Point Given was 8.54, the standard deviation for California Chrome’s epic run was 2.0, which means that unlike many other great horses he showed up and was consistent each time. Now, you may think that I cherry picked horses with high standard deviations in order to make Chrome look good. My answer to you is that you can pick any horse you want, only Afleet Alex Silver Charm and Real Quiet will come close to matching Chrome’s consistency. This means that horses have to bounce at some point, and a new shooter with a modicum of talent will always be able to cash in.  Horse racing is a game of loopholes, angles and opportunities.