• Thoroughbred Analytics

    • Latest From Our Blog

    Preakness: Handicapping Test? or Battle Tested?
    Steve Brady

    This is a tricky Preakness to pick.  It’s not so much an exercise in judging the runners’ abilities, as it is in judging how much they have left in the tank.

    There were three particularly impressive performances in this year’s Kentucky Derby—and the winner’s (I’ll Have Another) wasn’t one of them.

    While IHA ran a good race, he also capitalized on a great trip. His jockey, Mario Gutierrez, put him in a great position to take the lead when the frontrunner faltered on a blistering hot pace. The Churchill Downs dirt track had been soaked with rain the night before, and was favoring early speed all day. Although there was a speed bias, Bodemeister did everything he could to stretch it to the limit by running at fractions that would have been quick for 9 furlongs, much less 10.

    Taking advantage of the pace is part of racing, and I take nothing away from IHA. IHA was close enough to the pace to get the benefit of the track bias while still avoiding Bodemeister’s suicidal pace. He deserved to be rewarded for it with a win, and kudos to any handicapper who predicted the way the race would play out. But Bodemeister’s was the most impressive performance of the day—perhaps of the three year old season.

    The two other impressive performances were from two brilliant closers: Dullahan and Went the Day Well.

    Dullahan made a great grinding effort to get up for third.  It was very
    impressive and showed that the concerns he couldn’t handle dirt were unfounded. In any case, his trainer wants to give him a rest and look to running him in the Belmont.  We may see just how good he is next month.

    Perhaps even more impressive was longshot Went the Day Well’s explosive kick in the final furlong.  He had to weave his way through the tiring field, and make an explosive final charge for fourth.

    But what effect will this have on the Derby?  If Bodemeister is still in good running shape (as trainer Bob Baffert claims), and he can repeat his Derby run—and I mean the exact same fractions–the Preakness sets up perfectly for him. If he bounces (and the sheets players say he already did bounce in the Derby), it opens the door for I’ll Have Another to snag yet another leg of the Triple Crown.

    Another contender to consider is Creative Cause. He’s been a presence within this three-year-old crop over the past year. Still, horseplayers’ memories can be short, and one flat performance can leave you forgotten. He started off a little farther behind than usual in the Derby, but made a nice assertive middle move which forced him to race wide. It wasn’t an impossible task, but he didn’t embarrass himself, and leads us to think he could run much better in a smaller crowd. Still, he seems more likely to fill out the exacta or tri than to win.

    Another to fill out the exotics is new shooter Tiger Walk. He looked ready to break through earlier this year (his races in the Withers and the Wood were both better than looked), but he won’t get any advantage on Pimlico’s speed favoring track. Still, there’s more there than meets the eye, and he could certainly get a piece at 30-1.

    PRICE PLAY OF THE DAY –  Pimlico, R-9, #11 Adirondack King

    There may be more earnings potential earlier in the Pimlico card. I was closely following Adirondack King earlier this year, thinking this son of Lawyer Ron could pop up as a late Triple Crown contender. He’s been running in some pretty tough stakes company of late on dirt.  He now moves to the turf at Pimlico, a surface switch that may easily reward his late-running style. When a horse tries something he’s unproven at, you usually get a price.

    Thoroughbred Analytics Forecasts 2012 Preakness Stakes Horse Race
    preakness 2012 horse race

    Orange County — The Preakness Stakes, which is the second leg of the US Triple Crown takes place this Saturday, May 19th. The high stakes horse race determines the horse that will win the Triple Crown. With the Kentucky Derby over, the pressure is high, since this race is known as the halfway point with the Belmont Stakes ending the US Triple Crown horse series. Barely behind the Kentucky Derby by a hair, the Preakness Stakes horse race is considered the second most attended stakes race with hundreds of thousands watching. The race has been coined as “The Run for the Black-Eyed Susans” namely for the type of flowers which adorn the winner’s neck each and every year.

    The Preakness Stakes race occurs on the third Saturday in May every year and Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland has the honor of holding the prestigious race. The race almost always attracts the Kentucky Derby winner along with several horses that may not have started in the Derby. Compared to the 1 ¼ mile Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes is 1 3/16 miles long. The Belmont Stakes is 1 ½ miles and is one of the most arduous. With the competition close and the stakes high, Thoroughbred Analytics horse racing software offers data-driven horse racing software to assist horse enthusiasts with their handicapping bets.

    Thoroughbred Analytics horse racing software provides a plethora of valuable horse racing data and information. The horse racing software utilizes accurate horse racing statistics, handicapping analytics, and much more to create detailed reports that provide key insight to the Preakness Stakes horse race and more.

    Everything the software analyzes, such as important statistical information and historical horse racing data, is directly generated into valuable handicapping reports. These handicapping reports make it possible for horse fans to place more educated bets. With the Preakness Stakes a few days away, Thoroughbred Analytics software is aiding horse betters with a competitive edge before the competition.

    Preakness followers can still acquire all encompassing information regarding jockey, trainer, and track analytics for the 2012 Preakness Stakes Race. Users can utilize Thoroughbred Analytics valuable horse racing data to retrieve access to all levels of valuable information in regards to the 2012 Preakness States Race, skill level is irrelevant as Thoroughbred Analytics program is user-friendly for all levels of horse racing fans. Thoroughbred Analytics has proved itself a first-line resource for obtaining objective horse racing data that offers the best insight for the 2012 Preakness Stakes quick picks.

    Active horse racing fans are quickly learning that they don’t have to be placing their bets in the dark any longer. With advancing technologies and a knowledgeable team of professional analysts behind the Thoroughbred Analytics program, users are becoming fully equipped to enter the once volatile and ambiguous world of horse race betting. Invest in the Thoroughbred Analytics Program and users will soon be able to forecast who will most likely have the blanket of Black-Eyed Susans draped around their neck in 2012 before the event even takes place.

    Kentucky Derby–Deserving Favorites and Under the Radar Players
    Steve Brady

    The final field is not yet complete, and with post position yet to be determined, and up to four possible also-eligibles, it’s obviously too soon to make any final Derby picks. On top of that, the TA model will crank out its rankings for Derby contenders when the morning line odds and program numbers are finalized, so I’m obviously getting ahead of things a little. Still, it’s good to be prepared, and you can always compare these picks to the rankings Big Blue spits out later in the week.

    As things now stand, there’s going to be a lot of early speed in this race. Bodemeister, Hansen, Trinniberg, Take Charge Indy, I’ll Have Another, and the possible addition of My Adonis to about four other pace pressers, promise to keep things snappy right from the start.

    It won’t surprise me if one of these speedsters survives the battle and finishes in the money, but it’s unlikely they all will, and the ones that don’t will probably be done by mid-stretch. This will open the door for mid to late-closers to win or at least fill out the superfecta.

    After viewing all of the Derby preps, I have six horses marked with multiple “better than looked” or “legitimately impressive” performances (not necessarily in this order): Bodemeister, Hansen, Union Rags, Dullahan, Daddy Nose Best, and Prospective.

    Hansen and Bodemeister both earned multiple marks as being tough competitors. Still, Trinniberg and the others are gonna make it tough up front. I think they are each going to keep the others out of the winner’s circle.

    Dullahan also gets marks for overcoming a speed bias, and I think the argument that he can’t run on dirt is unfounded; he was the only one to make up ground in the BC Juve against many of these same tough competitors. Still, I worry about his breeding; he’s over 4.00 in dosage.

    Union Rags also gets marks for his past two races. Still, I may be the only one who thought he should have overcome the trouble he found in the Floria Derby. I mean, it wasn’t a perfect trip, but a champion horse should be able to overcome some difficulty. Still, I do think he’s good, and it’s hard to overlook the trackside chatter about his impressive 5 furlong work on Saturday. He’s also good positionally, and if he’s good enough, he should get a good trip. He won’t be right on the lead, but he should be within striking range, and that’s a good place to be in the Derby.

    Prospective is a late closer. He earned marks twice, but they were both for races at Tampa Bay, and then he wasn’t in the picture in the Bluegrass, and Dullahan was. He seems to be working well leading up to the Derby, and he could get in the tri, but I don’t think he’s a win candidate.

    Daddy Nose Best is my longshot. I gave him marks in his last two races. Some observers claim that he was the beneficiary of a good setup in the Sunland Derby, but I actually gave him points for that race. The splits were fast up front, and he wasn’t really in the best spot in that race—and he had to overcome the horses that were. It’s tough to know how good a Sunland Derby field is, but that’s the race Mine that Bird came out of a few years ago, and he did earn a 100 Beyer and 101 BRIS figure in that race. Meanwhile, daily reports from Churchill say he’s working really well right now. I like him.

    These next two are worth a look:

    Rousing Sermon seems like he’s got a chance to get up at a big price. He got one (but only one) of my marks. He’s another late closer, who seems to be improving at the right time. He’s also a “dual qualifier” on breeding, which may finally come through for him when he goes a full mile and a quarter.

    Take Charge Indy didn’t get any of my marks, but he has been in close competition with more Derby runners than anyone else coming up to this race. The problem is (except for the Fla Derby), he usually ended up behind them and didn’t seem to be overcoming a bias of any kind. He’s a frontrunner, and that won’t help him in this year’s Derby, but he will have multiple Derby winner Calvin “Bo-rail” on his back.

    Solving the Puzzle
    Steve Brady

    Handicappers want to make their own picks—not have them handed to them.

    Have you ever bought a handicapper’s picks at the track? One of those sheets they sell at a booth right near the entrance? Or maybe found a service online, or even a “free picks” site? Then there’s always the famous “radio plays” from any of the broadcast or internet radio shows.

    I’ve even been a part of a service where a handicapper sent me a list of numbers to bet, such as 5/3,4,9. I’ve had some good days using those services; I’ve also had some really frustrating days watching the handicapper’s “best bet” come home gasping in 4th.

    It’s also frustrating to wonder what you’re supposed to do with these picks. They give you a list of names or numbers, but they don’t really give you a strategy of what to do with them. Do I just bet the top choice to win? Do I use them all in a $64 pick-3? That’s kind of expensive. If the favorites come in, I won’t even get my money back.

    How good a bet is his best bet? Is he so good that you’re sure he’ll at least show? Can I put a few hundred on his 8-1 “best bet” to show? ‘Cuz I’ve done that before, and watched them run around at the back of the pack.

    If his top choice is a short priced favorite in a short field, can I single him in the exotics? ‘Cuz I’ve done that, and watched the 4th choice nail it at the wire. I guess I just didn’t use his “best bets” to my best advantage. I guess that’s my bad.

    But even on those days when I’ve used someone else’s handicapping to select winners, it hasn’t been that satisfying. I can honestly say, that (while the cash felt good in my pocket) I’ve actually been more gratified watching my own selection exceed his odds and get up to place or show, than having a handicapper’s short-priced pick win.

    It’s not that I’m opposed to suggestion, but I like it to at least be informed consent. I mean, if you’re just going to trust someone else to take charge of growing your money, you’d be better off putting it in a mutual fund, right?

    Ultimately, if you rely on others to make your selections for you, you end up spending energy not on handicapping the horses, but on handicapping the handicappers. Can you say “missing the point.”

    Thoroughbred Analytics (TA) does rank horses based on its proprietary computer model, and I suppose you could just go to the track and keep laying a couple bucks on the top selection, and you might well have an okay day at the track. I just don’t know any horseplayers who would find that satisfying. As a friend of mine says about betting systems: “You still have to handicap.”

    In my opinion, the best use of TA (both financially and in satisfaction of enjoying a race) is to either confirm a selection you have already handicapped, or to open your eyes to the potential of an under-the-radar horse. Perhaps the running line in the pp’s gave you nothing, and TA gave the horse a high ranking. I don’t know if I’d blindly throw a bunch of Benjamins at him, but I would go to the race chart of his last race or to the video replay to see if there was something you’ve overlooked. You can’t always bet a horse based on the finish position of his last race.

    Was he taken out of the race at the start? Did he break slow? Did he get squeezed or bumped coming out of the gate? (This is particularly significant for front-running types.)

    Did he tire on a hot pace? Was he forced wide entering the turn? Was he boxed in on the rail and couldn’t get clear coming into the stretch?

    Was he “between horses?” This is a completely subjective and seemingly innocuous phrase (and it can mean nothing), but it can indicate a claustrophobic trip which could affect a runner. That horse could greatly improve with a move to a better post. The only way to really know is to watch with your own eyes.

    Whatever your conclusion, the satisfaction in racing comes from “solving the puzzle.” TA’s predictors can give you a pick, but their real force comes in helping you handicap, and in adding confidence to the picks you’ve made on your own—the real reason you come to the track in the first place.

    Live Longshot in Saturday Feature at Aqueduct
    Untied Tie (2)

    It’s very encouraging to have objective data support your own opinions–especially when they come from unrelated evidence.

    I have come to rely more and more on “trip handicapping.” I watch race replays daily, make trip notes, add horses to my stable, and wait for those runners to come up again. Sometimes those observations contravene objective evidence such as split times and order of finish.

    Sometimes you bet the horse next out and he still runs poorly. Sometimes they have bad luck twice in a row. Sometimes they have a run of bad luck, and as the losses pile up, it gets tougher and tougher to trust that your observations were valid.

    There’s a runner in the 9th at Aqueduct on Saturday (The $200k G-2 Jerome Stakes at 1 mile on dirt) that provides just such an example.

    I have been carefully tracking all of the Triple Crown prep races for the past several months. I have a stack of race charts going back to November. For any performance that appeared to be either better than looked or that confirmed the good result, I would mark the runner with a yellow highlighter.
    Over time, these florescent marks have been a pretty good indicator of eventual Derby contenders.
    But there are a few horses with multiple marks who couldn’t seem to close the deal. Some I might even consider betting in the Derby if they could get in. One of these outsiders is Adirondack King.
    News Flash!!! He’s not gonna make it to the Derby!!!

    Still, there’s an awful lot to like about this guy. This son of Lawyer Ron earned my orange highlighter after consecutive better-than-looked efforts in graded stakes races. After breaking his maiden at Parx in September, he reeled off two more consecutive wins, before coming in third as the favorite to likely Derby runner Prospective. He then had two much better than looked runs in the G-3 Southwest and then the G-2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. Both of these races look much worse on paper than they do on video. AK finished approximately 6 lengths behind the winners, but those were races in which frontrunners dominated, so it’s not surprising his closing style wasn’t rewarded. Also, they were both bigger, tougher fields.

    Once I accepted that he wouldn’t be a Derby runner, I kept my eyes open for his next race, hoping I might get a decent price. I was thrilled to see him come up in a relatively short field as the 12-1 longshot.

    There are a couple of concerns here. The mile may not be his best distance, and I was hoping for a little more speed to set up his late run. Still, there is blazing speed in the one hole, and a couple of these might try to go with him. Also, Pletcher also has an under-the-radar type in Dan and Sheila (Ranked #3 by Thoroughbred Analytics!) I have to confess my lack of familiarity with his rider, Kendrick Cartouche, but I’m greatly heartened by his TA jockey rating of 101.97. Also, if I’ve learned anything in my time at the track, it’s this: Short prices go shorter; long prices go longer. We could be looking at a big price on a live longshot.

    Recent Blog Posts
    Links