There is no point to handicapping jockeys. Actually, there is no point in handicapping jockeys who are accurately rated. The art of handicapping jockeys is finding out which ones the public has undervalued and then playing them when you feel like they are riding horses that are live. Now, the question becomes who are these underrated jocks. I came up with a list of the nine jockeys who do not ride for big name stables much if at all. I then asked the Thoroughbred Analytics team to find out how many times each jockey has ridden a horse at odds of 15-1 or more, and how many of those races they won. The reason we did this is because most of the time the odds of a horse are a pretty solid representation of the horses abilities. So, a 15-1 or greater is usually a horse that is outclassed and will only win if he catches a track he likes or he has a great trip like that of a Mine that Bird in the 2009 Kentucky Derby.
So, without further ado here are the nine most underrated jockeys in America for the year 2013.
9. Fernando Jara (Win % 0.78)
The great Invasor would be sad to know that many have forgotten about his beloved jockey. The great thing for handicappers is that Jara isn’t as good as he used to be, but he is a much better rider than he is given credit for. Look to play him on longshots who
like to come from five or six back and you may walk away with some pretty hefty prices.
8. Kayla Stra (Win% 1.74)
I honestly thought that the tenacious aussie would have better numbers than these. She certainly has the skill to bring in longshots more frequently, but sometimes she just can’t get to the wire on time. She is still undervalued, just not as much as I thought she was.
7. Channing Hill (Win% 1.87)
Here is a guy who used to be severely underrated, but is now moderately underrated. I suspect that the loyal following that he has established has slightly depressed the value of his horses by the time they get to the post. Be careful with this guy. If you find that his horses are getting over bet jump ship and wait for the next race.
6. Alan Garcia (Win% 3.77)
Every east coast racing fan knows that Alan Garcia can ride, but he still doesn’t get the credit of a Rajiv Maragh or a Javier Castellano. Most of that 3.77 win percentage was with horses that had no business being in the race in the first place.
5. Ricardo Gonzales (Win % 4.00)
The bug boy racing out of Golden Gate Park is the real deal. If he stays in Northern California, I can see him being a top five rider on that circuit.
4. Jose Lezcano (Win % 4.77)
Yes handicappers in Jersey treat him like he’s Springsteen, but the point is he is still riding and winning with longshots when he races o the NYRA circuit. Just like how some really famous stocks are still worth investing in, Jose Lezcano is still worth investing in at least for the next few months.
3. Tyler Baze (Win % 5.08)
How this guy got forced into riding 118 longshots is beyond me, but if major stables want to keep ignoring him and he wants to keep booting home 20-1s then why not take advantage of this glorious opportunity.
With the numbers being so close, and Brice having to ride at a higher wait than Jilver, I had to be honest and declare this one a tie. Brice is lethal on turf, and he understands
dirt just as well as most American jockeys. He is comfortable with any running style and adds about a length to most of his horses. If any of the major stables are reading this realize that numbers never lie. Brice Blanc is a beast. He deserves more than a few big name horses.
Jilver Chamafi is one of those apprentice jockeys who seems to have a pretty bright future. His apprenticeship and the weight allowance that goes with it finished in February and he hasn’t seemed to slow down. He is arguably the third best rider in South Florida, but doesn’t get a lot of big name mounts because he rides at Calder. I think Jilver will move his tack to Gulfstream and get more rides from the Nick Zitos and the Chad Browns as time goes by.
Underrated Jockeys!
There is no point to handicapping jockeys. Actually, there is no point in handicapping jockeys who are accurately rated. The art of handicapping jockeys is finding out which ones the public has undervalued and then playing them when you feel like they are riding horses that are live. Now, the question becomes who are these underrated jocks. I came up with a list of the nine jockeys who do not ride for big name stables much if at all. I then asked the Thoroughbred Analytics team to find out how many times each jockey has ridden a horse at odds of 15-1 or more, and how many of those races they won. The reason we did this is because most of the time the odds of a horse are a pretty solid representation of the horses abilities. So, a 15-1 or greater is usually a horse that is outclassed and will only win if he catches a track he likes or he has a great trip like that of a Mine that Bird in the 2009 Kentucky Derby.
So, without further ado here are the nine most underrated jockeys in America for the year 2013.
9. Fernando Jara (Win % 0.78)
The great Invasor would be sad to know that many have forgotten about his beloved jockey. The great thing for handicappers is that Jara isn’t as good as he used to be, but he is a much better rider than he is given credit for. Look to play him on longshots who
like to come from five or six back and you may walk away with some pretty hefty prices.
8. Kayla Stra (Win% 1.74)
I honestly thought that the tenacious aussie would have better numbers than these. She certainly has the skill to bring in longshots more frequently, but sometimes she just can’t get to the wire on time. She is still undervalued, just not as much as I thought she was.
7. Channing Hill (Win% 1.87)
Here is a guy who used to be severely underrated, but is now moderately underrated. I suspect that the loyal following that he has established has slightly depressed the value of his horses by the time they get to the post. Be careful with this guy. If you find that his horses are getting over bet jump ship and wait for the next race.
6. Alan Garcia (Win% 3.77)
Every east coast racing fan knows that Alan Garcia can ride, but he still doesn’t get the credit of a Rajiv Maragh or a Javier Castellano. Most of that 3.77 win percentage was with horses that had no business being in the race in the first place.
5. Ricardo Gonzales (Win % 4.00)
The bug boy racing out of Golden Gate Park is the real deal. If he stays in Northern California, I can see him being a top five rider on that circuit.
4. Jose Lezcano (Win % 4.77)
Yes handicappers in Jersey treat him like he’s Springsteen, but the point is he is still riding and winning with longshots when he races o the NYRA circuit. Just like how some really famous stocks are still worth investing in, Jose Lezcano is still worth investing in at least for the next few months.
3. Tyler Baze (Win % 5.08)
How this guy got forced into riding 118 longshots is beyond me, but if major stables want to keep ignoring him and he wants to keep booting home 20-1s then why not take advantage of this glorious opportunity.
1. Brice Blanc (Win % 5.56) Jilver Chamafi (Win % 5.76)
With the numbers being so close, and Brice having to ride at a higher wait than Jilver, I had to be honest and declare this one a tie. Brice is lethal on turf, and he understands
dirt just as well as most American jockeys. He is comfortable with any running style and adds about a length to most of his horses. If any of the major stables are reading this realize that numbers never lie. Brice Blanc is a beast. He deserves more than a few big name horses.
Jilver Chamafi is one of those apprentice jockeys who seems to have a pretty bright future. His apprenticeship and the weight allowance that goes with it finished in February and he hasn’t seemed to slow down. He is arguably the third best rider in South Florida, but doesn’t get a lot of big name mounts because he rides at Calder. I think Jilver will move his tack to Gulfstream and get more rides from the Nick Zitos and the Chad Browns as time goes by.