When Mad Hatter won the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 1921, he lay claim to greatness as only few horses can nowadays. He had run on dirt; the less forgiving of the two major surfaces, and he had won at a distance of two miles which is something that you do not see anymore.

Every year, the racing secretary at Saratoga tries to turn back the clock on this great sport of ours and remember the past by holding a flat dirt race at two miles. As I was combing through my app for races to handicap, I realized that this year’s two mile race will be held this Friday. It will be third race of the day and expected post time is
1:04 p.m. It’s your standard allowance optional claiming, but the distance will give one of the horses a chance to shine and pay homage to the greats of yesteryear.

Almost every person with little to no interest in horse racing always says the same thing as through they were all part of a cult. They all ask “why are the races so short?” They are usually referring to races a mile or less. They feel that it is all about who gets position into the first turn and nothing more. Though I am willing to admit that they are being a little simplistic in their analysis, there is a kernel of truth in there. Dirt racing gives the frontrunner such a great advantage that it is fairly difficult to come roaring off the pace if the frontrunner isn’t truly fatigued. So, having a great gate rider on a speed horse is usually a recipe for winning. This is why I always add two points to a horses TA indicator when it is being ridden by Bejarano in a one-turn sprint.

To break it down, what the casual observer is noticing is that while a sprint and a classic route are both horse races, one is a hundred year old Sauvignon Blanc and the other is the dollar beer you get at Del Mar with your pizza. Though there is a time and place for both, and clearly one of them is a lot easier on your wallet, you wouldn’t treat your friends to dollar beers if you won the superfecta.

Now for the part that you have all been waiting for: The analysis of the race itself!

Using the Thoroughbred Analytics algorithm and adjusting the weighing of the metrics where appropriate, I have keyed in on two horses who seem poised to go the distance and assert their greatness.

State Flag: He’s owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey and has the breeding that you would expect from one of their horses. Of course, he’s also backed up his breeding by some strong efforts going a distance. I especially liked his third place effort two starts back because he went a mile and a quarter, sat off a very tepid pace, yet was able to close into it halfway decently. The numbers are really in his favor across the board and his tactical speed should help him. My only concern with State Flag is that he lacks that killer instinct to pass horses and finish off a race. The horse has only one win even though he was much the best in at least four of his races.

Le Deluge: His last three races haven’t been very impressive at all, but when re-weighing certain key metrics he really stands out. The horse likes distance. His problem is that he’s a plodder-he has no acceleration. You think of him as the anti-Goldikova. Now, here’s the beauty of this race; he has two whole miles to plod to his hearts content and ware these other horses down. The numbers say that he can do it. I love how well he scores in the metrics that matter the most. His lack of acceleration won’t hurt him very much and due to the fact that he runs routes so often-something you never see nowadays-he should be well conditioned for this race. Like I said before, his main foe will be State Flag. It seems as though the race will go to whomever gets the pace scenario to his advantage. My advice would be to include both of these horses in your plays and mix in whatever other horses you like for good measure.