For some of the more astute handicappers, this article will not teach you anything that you already know; however, if you are an intermediate level handicapper or below then you will need to pay close attention because what I have to say will benefit you greatly.

Strategic Manuever in the Frizette, Bellamy Road in the Kentucky Derby, Big Brown in the Belmont are all famous examples of horses who bounced. The problem for handicappers is that horses bounce all the time at tracks all over the country and other than the most astute handicappers; no one picks up on this.

There are basically five rules that are to be taken into consideration when trying to figure out whether or not a horse will bounce.

The metrics and calculation criteria do not have to be deployed in order, but they absolutely must be deployed to the last amount rather than the whole amount. Failure to do so will result in a calculation error.

Has a horse made two significant jumps in its speed rating?

Though the reasons are unclear, horses can make two significant jumps in speed rating, but rarely ever a third. Yes, Secretariat did it, but he was a freak of nature and the average horse at Canterbury Park or Turf Paradise cannot imitate him. If a horse has made two significant jumps in his speed rating, I usually take his TA indicator and subtract 10%. For example, if a two jump horse has a TA indicator of 100.00 his adjusted TA indicator is 90.00

Is the horse overraced?

If the horse has run in the last twenty days, it is over raced, and 5% needs to be subtracted from its TA indicator. So, using the horse in our previous example, he started out at 100.00 then went to 90.00 and is now at 85.50.

Is this a sprint race?

If this is a sprint race and the horse is a two jump horse, then you must subtract another 5% from his TA indicator. So, using this same fictional horse, he is now at 81.225.

Is this horse a pure frontrunner?

If the horse is a pure frontrunner and he has made two speed jumps, I can assure you he must be pretty tired. Go ahead and subtract 7% from his TA indicator. So, our fictional horse is now down to a TA indicator of 75.54, and is about to fall once more.

Is the horse six years or older?

If the horse is Six years or older and he has made two jumps in speed, subtract 10% from his TA indicator. So, our poor fictional horse, who started out with a TA indicator of 100.00, is now at 67.99.

The TA indicator has shaved so much time off of my handicapping. I can look at a simple number and get an incredibly accurate picture of how good a horse really is. If I looked at nothing but this number and played cold exactas I would still make money, but putting context to the TA indicator really takes a handicapper to the next level.

Applying the “bounce metrics” that I have created allows me to account for the anomalies in racing that one has to be aware of in order to succeed. If I can take the time out to apply the “bounce metric” the TA indicator will do all of the heavy lifting and pick up on the things that I cannot accurately measure such as lengths gained and horses passed. I cannot tell you how important the lengths gained metric is, especially when evaluating turf horses stretching out, but all metrics become more powerful when you apply some context to them.

So, the next time you see a horse who has jumped twice in its speed rating, apply the “bounce metrics” to get a more accurate picture of the horse’s TA indicator and you might catch a 30-1 longshot and avoid being part of the “dumb money” that makes odds on favorites out of horses who wind up as also-rans.