I give up!

I remember a time when horses that should’ve been morning line favorites went off at 20-1 and anyone who could halfway read past performances could clean up considerably at the track. I’m afraid that those days are long gone. The betting public is more sophisticated than ever before. This means that bettors are valuing horses as they should and longshot winners are truly unexpected.

Though my evidence is purely anecdotal, I’m sure most handicappers who have a keen eye and have been around the game long enough would agree with me. I remember when Thunder Gulch won the Kentucky Derby at 24-1, I was surprised. I wasn’t necessarily surprised that he had won, rather I was surprised that he was 24-1. I mean he had won the first two preps with only minimal effort and the third was a loss on the most speed biased dirt course ever-Keenland! If the derby had taken place this year, Thunder Gulch would have gone off at 7-1 or something close to that.

So, if the betting public is incredibly savvy, how do we as handicappers turn a profit? We need to bet the only two races in America where we as handicappers have a distinct advantage- turf routes and dirt routes. There are so many sprint races that the average person knows how to see the trends in these races and handicap them accordingly, but they do not see the trends in route races. I love using the Thoroughbred Analytics algorithm on anything longer than a mile and a sixteenth because more often than not they pick up on things that I do not, and as a result give me a distinct advantage. I then like to combine the algorithm with my own sire analysis to yield an even clearer picture of how the race is likely to finish. If the TA indicator on a longshot in a sprint is extremely favorable, then I’ll play the sprint because that usually works out well too, but my bread and butter is route races.

For example, if we have a race going a mile and a quarter, I would pay close attention to the lengths gained as well as TA indicators and isolate the three best horses using these two metrics; I would then use these three horses in a variety of exactas and across the board bets. In the event that the TA indicators and lengths gained metrics are close, I would use sire data as the tie breaker. It has to be noted that over the past five years, the horses who have sired the most graded stakes winners going routes in order are: Giant’s Causeway, Dynaformer, A.P. Indy, Distorted Humor and Smart Strike. Of course Dynaformer is deceased, but the other four are sire monsters and I would always give consideration to any of their foals. This information mainly applies to a fast track because we all know how some horses come alive on the mud- Bertrando anyone?

Being a great handicapper ultimately comes down to discipline. You have to know when you have a decided advantage over your competition and when you do not. Just like how Pat Day knew he owned route races so do you. So why don’t you try this out; however many races you play per week, play an equal number of sprints and routes. Primarily use the TA indicator and the lengths gained for routes, and the TA indicator and speed rating for sprints. At the end of the week, see if you made more money on the sprints or the routes, the results may surprise you.