No horse in recent memory has divided those who live east and west of the Mississippi more than California Chrome. Each race that Chrome enters carries more significance than it should because it is as though he is carrying the pride of an entire region on his undersized back. So, with the entry of California Chrome, the Hollywood Derby becomes the most important race of the week. With a win, not even the most critical east coast voter can deny California Chrome Horse of the Year; however, a loss pretty much seals Chrome’s fate as it provided ample ammunition for his critics to tout the accomplishments of turf specialist Main Sequence. Let’s look at the race and see if the diminutive California bred has a chance.

California Chrome is by the dirt/polytrack sire Lucky Pulpit. Though horses by Lucky Pulpit seem to perform best over dirt and polytrack, his prescense as a sire doesn’t mean doom and gloom when it comes to turf. I would rate his turf influence as neutral or a non-factor. The part of California Chrome’s pedigree that I would look closely at is his dam side, in particular his broodmare sire.

For reasons unknown to most of us, Chrome seems to take after his broodmare sire more than any other relative in his lineage. This means that if we’re looking to figure out whether or not he can handle turf, Not for Love is the best place to start. Not for Love’s most intriguing quality was that he didn’t have any preferences. He enjoyed distances from 6 furlongs all the way to 9 and a half furlongs, He enjoyed a fast dirt track, a sloppy track as well as a turf track; nothing really seemed to bother the son of Mr. Prospector. The progeny of Not for Love seem to have a preference for the dirt, but can handle turf without a problem.

California Chrome may also have inherited quite a bit from the 2nd dam sire:Polish Numbers. Of course, like most horses by Danzig, Polish Numbers went on to sire more graded stakes winners on turf than he did on dirt.

So, the bottom line is that I believe that California Chrome will not lose more than half a step going from dirt to turf. If he loses the Hollywood Derby, it will be because of the competition, in particular Lexie Lou.

Lexie Lou has shown an affinity for the turf as well as beating colts. Though the class of horses that she has faced at Woodbine aren’t nearly as good as the types of horses that California Chrome has beaten, she seems to relish 10 furlongs whereas Chrome seems to be most comfortable at 9 furlongs. It also doesn’t help Chrome’s chances that Lexie Lou seems to have taken a liking to Southern California and is in peak form.

The biggest obstacle standing in California Chrome’s way is Victor Espinoza. While Espinoza is a terrific jockey, he may not know exactly which adjustments to make in order to bring out Chrome’s best performance. He’ll have to save ground most of the way, but he’ll also have to swing outside of horses before the quarter pole. Though Espinoza is skilled, he is no Frankie Dettori or Jerry Bailey when it comes to turf riding.

The Play:

California Chrome will not disappoint in this spot. He’ll take to the turf just fine, and run valiantly against these foes. The problem is Lexie Lou will run just as well and probably get a better ride from her jockey, Corey Nakatani. The finish will be one for the ages, as Lexie Lou edges out California Chrome by the slimmest of margins.