Latest From Our Blog

Two Year Olds are Full of Promise

Two year olds are full of promise. The next Sunday Silence, Easy Goer or even Secretariat could be in that barn. When you have a two-year old in your barn, you might be one race away from having all of your hopes and dreams come true or on the fast path to financial ruin. There are two races at Arlington Park that could introduce us to our next superstars; let’s roll up our sleeves and handicap them.

The Arlington Washington Lassie Stakes:

Lemon Gala

Why she’ll win: She handled her foes pretty easily last time out, and there is reason to believe she can run faster than she has in the past.

Why she’ll lose: Though I said she can run faster, she still needs to step up by a lot in order to have any chance here. She seems like one of those horses who if she runsd through the bridle she wins, but anything less than that will simply not be good enough.

Sarah Sis

Why she’ll win: Did you see her debut? This horse is unbelievably professional. She won gate to wire, and seems to have a very high cruising speed

Why she’ll lose: She’s the wrong horse at the wrong place at the wrong time. Her connections probably had no intention of running in this race before her surprisingly good maiden win, and now they want to quickly wheel her back because it’s all about the green. She would have to be Serena’s Song to bounce back this fast; I highly doubt she’s the new Serena’s Song.

Quality Rocks

Why she’ll win: Judging by her maiden, she seems to have as much talent as Sarah Sis, but is coming into this race the right way. She wouldn’t have to do anything special to win here, just repeat her last effort.

Why she’ll lose: She may be one of those “need the lead” types. She may get baited into a speed duel. We don’t know her running style just yet.

Puntsville:

Why she’ll win: She has won before, and has the class to stay competitive with Quality Rocks and Sarah Sis.

Why she’ll lose: Though it may be too early to tell, she has all the making of a need the lead type of filly. I just don’t see this race working out the way she would want it to.

Sugar Talk

Why she’ll win: She is undeafeated and has a terrific running style.

Why she’ll lose: She is like five steps too slow for this bunch.

Happy to Go

Why she’ll win: She has an excellent running style. If they go 45 and 4 she wins this easily.

Why she’ll lose: They’ll probably go a little bit slower than that, making her job of winning from off the pace a little tougher than she would want. She is a very dangerous horse though.

Susan’s Day

Why she’ll win: She is an even more talented Happy to Go. She would be the biggest beneficiary of a battle up front

Why she’ll lose: They will probably run at a sensible pace.

The Play

Win: Quality Rocks

Place: Susan’s Day

Show: Sarah Sis

Arlington Washington Futurity Stakes

Seraph

Why he’ll win: He was carried off of the pace and still ran huge

Why he’ll lose: Didn’t beat much so he isn’t as battle tested as the rest of the horses in this field

One go All Go:

Why he’ll win: Overcame plenty of adversity to win last out. It seems he is every bit as talented as his connections think he is.

Why he’ll lose: He gave a lot of himself to win that race, and as talented as he is he may not be able to come back so soon and duplicate that effort.

Tender May

Why he’ll win: The connections must think highly of him to make his first dirt race one of the bigger two year old races of the year.

Why he’ll lose: The connections have no idea what they are up against. This should be fun.

Recount

Why he’ll win: If you believe that Bourbon Cowboy is a very, very good horse, you have to like how Recount man handled him in their debut. Anything can happen, but Recount has shown a ton of promise.

Why he’ll lose: He couldn’t put away Private Prospect and Private Prospect happens to be in this race.

Private Prospect

Why he’ll win: He already beat Recount. Recount is one hell of a racehorse. The win was his most recent effort, which leads me to believe that it wasn’t a fluke at all.

Why he’ll lose: This is one of those where I don’t have a solid answer. He seems like a legitimate contender, I just believe that if Recount had a better pace scenario and a trip that was more to his liking, he would’ve beaten Private Prospect. This is my innate belief, we’ll see if I’m right.

Bourbon Cowboy

Why he’ll win: He ran well against Recount and steadily improved off of that race. He certainly isn’t outclassed in this one.

Why he’ll lose: He has the talenst, the running style and the heart, but he seems like 5.5 furlongs is his ideal distance. I know that questioning the distance abilities of a horse with Giant’s Causeway in the pedigree seems strange, but he seems like he wants to race shorter distances.

Ike Walker

Why he’ll win: Some horses get very brave on the lead. He is one of those horses. If he gets the lead, it could be game, set, match.

Why he’ll lose: He simply doesn’t have the class of horses like Recount or Private Prospect. Yes, if he gets on the lead and goes 47 flat he wins, but I’m handicapping this race on the assumption that the pace will be slightly fast if anything. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the winner’s circle, but I wouldn’t be holding my breath either.

Mr. Lightning Boy

Why he’ll win: There is a suicidal speed duel AND Recount stumbles at the start AND Jesse Campbell drops his whip mid-stretch AND Mr. Lightning Boy takes a big step forward.

Why he’ll lose: The odds of the scenario I have just described happening are approxiamately 500-1

The Play

Win: Recount

Place: Private Prospect

Show: One go All Go

 

 

Leave a Reply