Every now and again I get a question from a reader that is really thought provoking, so thought provoking that I want to respond to it with an entire blog post. Last week a reader named Danielle asked which female families have been prominent in the history of the Kentucky Derby and more importantly which of these families will be represented at this year’s Kentucky Derby.

In a previous blog post I identified seven female families that have had a presence at the Kentucky Derby time and time again. These female families have persevered through the years and have maintained the traits neccesary to succeed at a mile and a quarter on the the first saturday in May.

The interesting thing is that none of these horses descend from one of the seven great families except for one; we will get to that in a moment. This year’s Derby class come from fairly mediocre female stock. I am not trying to disparage any of the connections or breeders, but there is a slight lack of classic pedigree on this year’s derby trail. I have broken down the contenders into three categories: “Pretty Bad”, “Okay” “Really Good”.

Pretty Bad:

Cairo Prince has sprinters throughout his female line. I honestly tried to find an ounce of class in this line and I couldn’t find anyone of note. I’m sure that he could win the derby but it really would fly in the face of every breeding theory out there.

California Chrome has a similar style of breeding; an entire tail female line of milers. The difference here is that there is a decent amount of class including a third dam who acheived black type. The reason that I put him in the pretty bad category is that he clearly wasn’t bred for 10 furlongs, at least that is what his female family tells me.

Vicar’s in Trouble comes from the 9f family line which does have a few notable horses but once again this isn’t a family that produces a ton of derby talent but it has produced Makybe Diva and that’s not a bad thing.

Okay:

Tapiture, Strong Mandate, Bayern, Social Inclusion, Samraat. Each of these horses have ancestors who have made some noise in classics and each of these horses can add to that list. They shouldn’t be viewed positively of negatively just because of their female lines.

Really Good:

Hoppertunity. I really had know idea before I sat down to write this article that Hoppertunity descends from the 3-l family line. Each of the seven female lines have been carefully preserved through time but 3-l is the truest throback of them all. This line has Silver Charm, A.P. Indy, Summer Squall and Lemon Drop Kid amongst others. There really isn’t a lot not to like about this female family line because it just doesn’t produce horses who tire out easily. It also has to be said that in a year in which no other horses have ties to the seven families, Hopperunity stands out even more.