How important are jockeys? That’s the question that everyone asks, but is that the question that really matters? What if the question that we should be asking is which jockey is most likely to succeed in a given situation? When the best jockeys only win at a 25% clip, the question inevitably becomes which jockey is most likely to win in a given situation. The problem is we don’t know which situations to identify, and even if we did know, we don’t know which jockey excels at that given situation. Luckily, Thoroughbred Analytics puts that information right at our fingertips.

So, I decided to ask the question of which jockey is most likely to win with a longshot. The results were as follows:

Juarez, Jr., Alfredo, J.

Rodriguez, Pedro, A.

Perez, Miguel, A.

Saez, Juan, C.

Ramirez, Josean, G.

Hernandez, Juan, J.

Madeira, Carlos, D.

Desormeaux, Kent, J.

Hernandez, Julio, A.

Patin, Jr., Joseph, Walter

Tohill, Ken, S.

Gallardo, Antonio, A.

Rivera, Jose, M.

Zunino, Jose, Luis

Martinez, Heribert, Naherd

Nunez, Eduardo, O.

Tejera, Eguard, A.

Perez, Luis, E.

Maldonado, Edwin, A.

Otero, William, P.

Cruz, Manoel, R.

Gomez, Diego, Fernando

Molina, Jr., Juan, F.

Lopez, David, Michael

Parker, Deshawn, L.

Clearly, most of these names will be familiar to you if you are a prolific handicapper. If you only play the West Coast then the 8^th jockey on this list probably stands out the most. Dutrow’s former go to guy is actually quite adept at bringing in horses at juicy odds. I always felt like Kent Desormeaux was good at spoiling my exactas when I played exactas, but now I actually have statistical evidence. So, how do we put this evidence to work for us as soon as Kent recovers from his injuries?

Well, we now know that the public seriously undervalues both Kent and the horses he rides. This data was compiled on the 20^th of October, so it’s very actionable. We should play closer attention to the horses he rides, what odds they go off at, and what odds they should go off at. With this information at our disposal we can pick off some pretty pricey winners. Of course, Kent will lose more than he wins; just like any other jockey. The thing to keep in mind is that his longshots are being undervalued. Look at his mounts. Ask yourself if you like any of them and pick that one. Kent has ridden 166 longshots this year. He has 13 wins, 33 places, and 46 shows. He isn’t winning often with longshots, but he is doing better than he has any right to.

The astute handicapper looks for any angle he can get and a jockey’s ability to ride longshots is a pretty good angle in my opinion. Certain jockeys and their mounts are simply undervalued by the betting public. So, take a closer look at the riders on this list, they won’t be riding longshots for very long.

www.ThoroughbredAnalytics.com