This is a good week to be a horse racing fan. If I’m with the right crowd and 5/8ths of the way to being completely drunk I’ll usually lament the carding of sprints and wax philosophical about how the game was meant to be run at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter, so, needless to say I am pretty excited for the Suburban and the Belmont Derby. Both of these races feature some of the best 10-furlong horses in the country.

I won’t get into the Elmont Derby too much except to say that it will take a lot to beat Adelaide. I always give the Europeans a half a grade bump when comparing their races to American races. This means that a Group 2 is a Grade 1.5 – classier than an American Grade Two but not quite as good as an American Grade One. Adelaide has run with some of the best in Europe and the American contingent isn’t at its best this year. Yes, Bobby’s Kitten is the real deal, but he’s no Wise Dan, especially at ten furlongs. As long as Adelaide ships well he should find this distance within his reach. I would like actual raw times for the last 600 meters, but those figures are not accessible. Still, on video his last 600 meters look significantly better than anyone else does in this field.

The Suburban looks like the race that is more up for grabs. In the Suburban, we basically have a couple of horses who are stepping up in class versus some really classy horses who have fallen on hard times.

This is one of those races where I think tactical speed helps. Yes, there have been plenty of horses who have pressed the pace in the Suburban and faltered, but those horses were milers and shouldn’t have entered the Suburban to begin with. Now, when there is a horse that has tactical speed and can get the distance, he tends to win pretty easily. This is why I like Last Gunfighter and Norumbega. I think they’ll stay close to whomever gets the lead, press that horse into an honest pace and then battle one another throughout the stretch. When combing several TA metrics and weighing them how I thought best, Last Gunfighter and Norumbega both really stood out. Once again, they aren’t the most talented horses in the race, they just fit this track and pace scenario better than the other runners. I also like Mylute, but coming from ten lengths off to win the Suburban just isn’t going to happen. I do think Mylute is a great horse to pick up the pieces though.

WIN: Last Gunfighter

PLACE: Norumbega

SHOW: Mylute

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