I’m a sucker for a good turf race. There’s something about turf horses that really catches my eye. The way they just glide over the ground unlike dirt horses is just more natural to be honest. Well, Arlington has a bunch of great turf races headlined by the American Derby.

I’ll cut to the chase. I think they’ll run an honest pace in this one. I highly doubt Ghostly Wonder is going to sit back when his only chance to win is set in solid fractions and try to wire the entire field. I also think their may be some traffic in this race. So, basically this looks like every other graded stakes turf race. It’s going to come down to who can circle the field and kick clear to win it all.

Why did Highball have to run as recently as June 14^th? If it weren’t for the fact that I think he’ll only be at 80% strength, he would be my obvious choice. He is one of the few horses that you know can get the distance and maintain that closing kick. I drew a line through his debut because apparently he was giving trouble that day and clearly lost his race in the post parade. Highball looks like the class of this race, but since he’s wheeling back too soon we must look elsewhere.

Giacallure catches my attention. He’s a horse stepping up in class and though 8.5 furlongs might be his optimum distance, he could possibly maintain some sort of kick to hang around. The other interesting thing about this horse is his breeding. His broodmare sire is the great Lure. This is pretty miraculous considering the fact I thought Lure was impotent. I’m pretty sure he was. Apparently, he sired a couple of good-looking fillies and decided it wasn’t for him. Anyway, if you like this horse, take a shot playing him in exactas and trifectas only.

Speed usually kills, but not at Arlington on the turf. This is why I’m throwing out Ghostly Wonder. I look for him to get gobbled up like Spanish chestnut on Derby day way back when.

This brings me to the two horses I think will come running like freight trains on Saturday; Afortable and Big Tom Prado. I love how easy it is for both of these horses to just relax and settle way off of an honest pace and then make one sustained run. I think this style works well anywhere including Arlington. So, what’s the difference between these two? One word: class.

Afortable seemed like he belonged the last time he ran against graded stakes company wile Big Tom Prado is basically a classy 62K Allowance horse. I do believe that the cream rises to the top and that’s why I have to go with Afortable to kick clear and win the American Derby for Julien Leparoux.

Next week will be fun as I talk about how I would go about breeding the next great American Turf horse. This is a topic I’m pretty passionate about so feel free to debate with me through e-mail or on twitter.

Win: Afortable

Place: Divine Oath

Show: Big Tom Prado

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