Can a champion bounce back after adversity? This is the classic handicapping problem that has seperated the men from the boys for years so to speak. The question is even more important this year because of the story lines surrounding the Pennsylvania Derby. California Chrome and Bayern-the two most talented horses in the field in my opinion- have been humbled. They are wounded warriors looking to redeem themselves.

California Chrome’s chances of redemption

California Chrome was on a six race winning streak before an injury and a mediocre ride compromised his chances of Triple Crown immortality. What makes this remarkable is that horses don’t go on six race winning streaks in graded competition anymore. California Chrome was head and shoulders above every other horse in the division this spring. I speak in the past tense because I do believe that three horses have caught up to him, however none of them are in this race.

The more I look at this race, the more I am reminded of Sunday Silence’s narrative. They are both scappy Californians who looked unbeatable until they ran into a track and racing style that they were unaccustomed to. I think the similarities will continue. Sunday had lost a step after the Belmont and did not regain it until the Breeder’s Cup. I believe that California Chrome has also lost a step and will not regain it until the Breeder’s Cup. Now here is the important part; though Chrome has lost a step, there isn’t a horse in the race with the talent to fully exploit this deficiency.

Chrome’s signature move is to explode at the top of the stretch and maintain that lead for as long as he can. I do think he’ll unleash that move at Parx, and I do think the track is set up to allow for it, but I don’t think he’ll execute that spurt as well as he has in the past. Of course, none of should matter as there are no superstars in this race.

Bayern’s chances of redemption

Here is another horse from the same female family as Chrome who is also attempting to make a comeback; what a strange coincidence!

This descendant of the great Betty Derr will have much more to overcome and may not be up to the task.

Like California Chrome, Bayern had a win streak snapped in a major Grade One by a rising superstar. Unlike California Chrome, Bayern’s win streak was a result of an ideal track and pace scenario which allowed a good but not great horse to shine. Bayern is a need the lead type who may get the lead. The problem is that Edgar Prado and CJ’s Awesome will not let Bayern get away with anything less than ¾ in 1:10 and four.

Do you like Bayern to pull away from this field after having to go 1:10 and four? If you do, then Bayern isn’t a bad play. The problem for me is that there are horses that are almost as good as Bayern and do not need the lead.

If you look at the TA Indicators of each horse in the field, Candy Boy and Protonico have almost as much form and ability as Bayern, but a running style more conducive to route racing. Look for both of these horses to be within range of California Chrome turning for home. If Chrome falters, it is Candy Boy and Protonico who will be the beneficiaries not Bayern.

Ultimately, I am going to trust my eyes which tell me that Chrome has lost a step, but no more than that. I don’t think he deserves to be a heavy favorite, but he is still head and shoulders above this group of horses.

Win: California Chrome

Place: Candy Boy

Show: Protonico