Have you ever met someone who hated bow ties then loved them only to hate them three weeks later; the type of person whose words mean less than an Eastern European politician? I think most handicappers are like that. I strive never to be like that.

Several weeks ago, I spoke about the lack of class in California Chrome’s female family. I spoke about my lack of confidence in the colt and his ability to get 10 furlongs. I made it seem as though playing him at 20-1 or better was the only thing that made sense. I am still not as high on Chrome as everyone else. Many Californians have already crowned him the Derby winner; a hasty and irresponsible thing to do. I do have one thing that I would like to correct. I said that the A4 family is not a very good one and it hasn’t been for a while, but I may have missed some crucial points.

As Sid Fernando has pointed out, the third dam of the great Swaps was Betty Derr who also happens to be the 8th dam of California chrome and the sixth dam of Bayern. What we could be witnessing is the reawakening of a long dormant line. If this is what we are seeing, Chrome and Bayern will have very little trouble negotiating the distance.

Betty Derr was the dam of Kentucky Derby winner Iron Leige. Of course, most know her as the third dam of the great Swaps. Yes, what you are probably thinking right now is correct; the A4 family reeled off two Kentucky Derby winners in just three years! There have been cases of bloodlines coming back to life before, even after 60 years.

Now, let’s switch tracks and talk about Bayern. He is by Offlee Wild and is undefeated in two starts. The truth is that we can’t evaluate a horse’s intangibles until they run in graded stakes company. So, if Bayern can win or finish within a length of the winner, he will jump way up on my Derby list. If he falters here, I will have a tough time choosing him for the Derby. The thing that differentiates Chrome from Bayern is that Chrome is over-raced and Bayern is under raced. Bayern needs to get a lot out of these next few weeks if he is to win the Kentucky Derby.

I still stand by my assessment that Hoppertunity has the most classic bloodlines of the entire field. His breeding suggests that he wants 10 furlongs if not more, there may be something in the air that Chrome and Bayern will be the beneficiary of. We could be seeing a classic case of what is old becomes new again.