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All about the Pace….’bout the Pace…and closing

The 141st running of the Kentucky Derby should prove to be one of the best in recent years. The field is full of talented and exciting three year olds from top tracks in California, Kentucky, and Dubai.

Several of the contenders have earned 100 Beyer Speed figures: Dortmund, American Pharaoh, Materiality, Firing Line, Frosted, Upstart, Tencendur and Bolo and should not be overlooked.

One must consider the running style of these Derby hopefuls, particularly with a 20 horse field. Here are the running styles of the field:

Pacesetters: Dortmund, American Pharaoh, Materiality, Stanford (scratched), Ocho Ocho Ocho

Stalkers: Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Frosted, Mubtaahij, El Kabeir, Upstart, Itsaknockout, Danzig Moon, Tencendur, Mr. Z, Bolo

Closers: International Star, Far Right, War Story, Keen Ice, Frammento

I see the pacesetters making a strong early start and being the 1st grouping to the 1st turn (Dortmund, Materiality, Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Mubtaahij, El Kabeir), American Pharoah’s 18 post position may keep him off the pace initially.

Of concern in a large field such as this is not getting blocked in traffic, so getting a decent early position will be on many of these jockey’s minds.

Also keep in mind these horses that rate high for finishing in the money in their previous races. Dortmund, American Pharaoh, Mubtaahij, El Kabeir, Firing Line, Itsaknockout, International Star, War Story.

Thoroughbred Analytics Premium Past performances for May 2nd’s Kentucky Derby are now available, as well as Jockey and Trainer Analytic reports.

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