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Bridge Jumpers

My name is Jameel Anees and I am a bridge-jumper.

Most people who see me handicap are fairly surprised by my love of “across the board” wagering and bridge-jumping. They usually expect me to try and take down a big Pick 6 or a fancy superfecta, but I am a little too wise for that.

The point of handicapping is to enjoy yourself while giving yourself the very best opportunity to make a positive return on investment. Bridge-jumping is one of the best ways to get profitable and stay profitable in racing.

If you have been following Thoroughbred Analytics on Twitter, you probably gave such longshots such as VE Day and Hardest Core a second look. If you took a leap of faith and played either of those horses across the board, you were rewarded with a pretty handsome payoff.

Now, there are times when our longshot picks will fail to win or even hit the board, but in the long run, betting undervalued horses across the board and bridge-jumping on great horses usually pays off.

Here’s the important part

Do not play with money that you cannot afford to lose. Do lock in on one horse in one or maybe two races that day and bet your total wagering budget for the day. Like a boxer, you need to pick your spots when it comes to getting aggressive.

If I have set aside $200 for wagering for the day, I’ll usually pick one horse and play $60 to win, $60 to place, and $80 to show. The horse will usually be one that the TA algorithm and I both like, but the general public does not. I call these “true overlays”. There are rarely more than three “true underlays” in any one card and almost never two “true underlays” in the same race.

VE Day was a true overlay as I liked him and he did well on most TA metrics. The general public disregarded him because they thought the Curlin Stakes was a much weaker race than it actually was. Without going into too much detail and boring everyone, VE Day had no business finishing in the money, let alone winning the race, he was a prime candidate to improve off of the effort.

If you are interested in seeing this method in practice, I will be looking for “true underlays” at Canterbury Park and tweeting them on Saturday and Sunday a few minutes before the race, feel free to follow.

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